Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/21/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Via the Hall rules: "Executives retired for at least five years. Active executives 70 years or older are eligible for consideration regardless of the position they hold in an organization, and regardless of whether their body of work has been completed."

Epstein is now six years removed from his last POBO job, but he's still been peripherally working in baseball, first for the league and now as a minority owner within the Fenway Sports Group. He's still just 52, and it's not outside the realm of possibility he could come back to a front office — or, hell, become commissioner, as some have speculated — and with no shortage of other candidates to consider, I don't see him landing on a ballot for awhile.
Barbaro Garbey
1:05
Thanks for the chat Jay. I think this is going to be more of a comment than a question, but I am becoming frustrated with my fellow Tigers fans who are already freaking out that the team either will not trade Skubal, or get (in their view) an insufficient return for him. For me though, even acknowledging the Tigers are in a tough spot vis a vis the playoff chase, I want them to keep Skubal. The whole point of being a fan of a team is to someday have the opportunity to regularly watch a player like Skubal (or Miggy Cabrera, JV, Scherzer, McGonigle, etc.) on your team. Even if the Tigers hold Skubal, miss the playoffs, and let him walk as a free agent, I reject the idea that they got "nothing" for him. In fact, we Tigers fans (and the team) have gotten to watch a great player on a historic run of dominance. On our team. I know that for me, that is not "nothing"...but YMMV
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
I understand that feeling. it's not the same thing but a writer for the Denver Post asked me (and Dan Szymborski) to weigh in on the trade outlook for Hunter Goodman. (see https://www.denverpost.com/2026/07/04/rockies-hunter-goodman-trade-yan...) I think it's a very cynical view of sports fandom to assume that you have to trade your best/fans' favorite players if you're not on track for a championship. I think the Tigers (and Rockies) have to listen to offers, and maybe they'll get one they can't refuse, but
(whoops)
1:11
if they don't trade him, I don't think that's a failure. I also think that trading Skubal vs. holding him and letting him hit free agency is a more definitive slamming of the door on a return. The Tigers have gone big before to retain their top stars, and I expect them to be competitive for Skubal assuming the CBA changes enough to make it more costly for, say, the Dodgers or Mets to try to add him.
Resolution
1:11
Re: Arenado’s HOF case - are you inclined to ‘round up’ on guys who missed a year of their prime due to the pandemic?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
pandemic, strike, military service — yes, I try to give the benefit of the doubt for those types of career interruptions.
drplantwrench
1:12
Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register pitcher a three team deal between the Dodgers, Angels, and Tigers where each team gets:

Dodgers: Skubal
Tigers: One of Soriano/Detmers, a Dodgers prospect
Angels: 3-4 Dodgers top prospects

What's your gut reaction to it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
obviously "top prospect" is a loose definition but I don't see the Dodgers giving up that much for a 2-month rental. A 4-5 player sack of prospects is gonna include some live arms in A-ball who don't score as 50-FVs, for example.
Jeremy Fox
1:15
Starting to look like Bryce Harper's decline phase as a hitter started last year, though so far it's a gentle decline. And somewhat to my surprise, he seems to have become quite a poor first baseman. He also hasn't played a full season since 2019 (though he was on track to do so in 2020 for what it's worth) Does a gentle extended decline phase at the plate with bad 1B defense, playing 3/4-ish seasons, get him to the HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
I think Harper's probably Hall bound, yes. His is the case Schwarber's proponents wish their guy had, with 2 MVP awards (plus a ROY), more than double the number of All-Star appearances thus far (9 to 4), some defensive value, and a strong postseason resumé even if he doesn't have a ring.
Eshan Mehere
1:18
are stantons chances at the hof p much cooked now
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
They sure aren't improving with another mostly-lost season, but last year's bounceback kept the door ajar (to choose a different metaphor from yours, which was hardly off base).
Phillip Denny
1:23
On the ROS projection point - at what point in the season does a current win percentage become more predictive than a pre-season projection win percentage? For example, the Mets are still projected for .539 ROS W% whereas the White Sox are at .455 (under the Angels!).
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
I'm pretty sure this is a pitch in the wheelhouses of either Dan Szymborski or Ben Clemens — i don't know the answer offhand
war2d2
1:24
In response to Barbero’s comment about trading Skubal, this is a big reason I’ll always prefer a Dombrowski to an Eric Neander type. Yeah, you wind up with the boom-bust cycle with Dombo, but when he puts a team together you know you’re going to be rooting for that core group for the full duration of the competitive window vs. jettisoning players every time they get into their second arb year. I don’t mean to pick on Neander, he does a good job with what ownership grants him. So I suppose I should say I prefer a Mike Ilitch/John Middleton owner to the Rays alternative.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
I agree, but I don't think you can completely detach the characterizations of those ownerships from their teams' financial standing. Not that the Tampa-St. Pete area is a smol bean, either; it's still 17th in the Metropolitan Statistical Area rankings where Philadelphia is 9th and Detroit 14th, but expansion and the ongoing ballpark situation has long left the Rays on a different footing that has influenced their approach to team-building.
Alex Remington
1:29
I'm deeply, deeply worried that Acuña's injuries are downgrading the arc of his career in front of our eyes, and that it could go from something like Vlad Guerrero Sr. to something like Eric Davis – extraordinary all the same, but, as Aaron Boone inartfully said of Giancarlo Stanton, perhaps injuries are part of his game. Your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
Acuña is still young enough (28) that I wouldn't given up hope on him completely yet but from a Hall standpoint he's now in his 9th season and has a 28.6-bWAR seven-year peak and just two seasons above 5.0 WAR. I think the point when he becomes a regular DH can't be that far off given his ongoing leg issues.
And it's time for me to pack it in for the day. Thanks so much for stopping by. We'll do this again soon!
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