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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/23/21
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Broken Bat
2:42
Give me your #1 Ctching Pros
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
my #1 catching prospect is the same as everyone else's: Adley Rutschman, our #2 prospect coming into the year and probably #1 once Wander loses his rookie status.
Steve
2:43
How aware are teams of vax status of players on other clubs? To put it another way, would this type of knowledge make team A hesitate to trade for player B, especially if team A is already above 85%?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
i'm pretty sure that kind of information would be part of a player's medical file if a team wanted to go beyond the informals of discussing trade possibilities. It might very well be a consideration in some cases this year.
Broken Bat
2:45
give me your #1 Catching prospect that you want for your 2023 season and beyond.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
ah this was the full question and the answer is still the same. Not a lot of reason for me to deviate from the consensus here
bob
2:45
The worst thing about the Guardians is the colors.  Teams that are not already grandfathered in should be prohibited from using red or navy.  Too many do it!  Three cheers for the Orioles, Padres, Marlins, Rockies, ChiSox, A's and Pirates!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
they were already using those colors, basically.
Michael
2:46
Thoughts on Kyle Tucker? He’s having a great 131 wRC+, 5 OAA, .400+ xwOBA season, but I feel like he’s not getting enough love because he’s in Houston. Do you think he’s legit, and can he maintain his success and become a superstar?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
he's legit, and he's #23 on our Trade Value list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-21-to-30/
2:48
he's got a multi All-Star future, i think. Doubt he'll be as popular beyond Houston as Altuve and Correa were, pre-scandal, because that's very tough to do and right now nobody's looking for likable Astros
Jimbo Richards
2:48
Moncada production numbers are giving off a sort of Eric Hosmer vibe this season. He has a great eye, and good defense, but his power isn't steady yet, or am I just overthinking this.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
He's got a 136 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR, the second time he's topped 130 and 3.0, and he's only 26. Hosmer has exactly one season at that level, and it was his walk year. Moncada's down years have been 1.6 and 2.0 WAR. Hosmer has been below zero 3x in the last 4 years. Not even remotely comparable
More power from Moncada would be nice but don't dismiss the fact that he's a damn good player.
Joshua
2:51
Victor Robles and Brad Hand to the Blue Jays for.......? Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
"... what reason?"
2:52
the Blue Jays need bullpen help, but I don't see them as needing to pay the acquisition cost of a young, club-controlled center fielder. Springer is back, they've got a young team around him with players who are way better than Robles.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:52
The Dodgers clearly are looking for pitching help at the deadline. But what is more critical for them to pick up, a starter or a reliever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Yes.
It's not either/or.
and I believe they'll get both.
FriarFan
2:53
How are the Giants what they are? Even great teams hit skids and bumps, and they weren't even supposed to be great, and yet here we are. Should I stop waiting for them to come back down to Earth?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
their bullpen is vulnerable, but then so is the Dodgers'. At this point, the Giants should be taken seriously as contenders. My big concern with them is all of the olds staying healthy and productive through the end of the season, and we've seen Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Longoria all hit the IL — sometimes for fluky reasons, but that doesn't make recovering form any easier.
adambulldog
2:57
What do you think of Marc Feinsand's prorosed trade: Rockies send Gray and Story to the Yankees in exchange for Abreu and Peraza?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
I don't know a ton about the prospects beyond Abreu being a 35+ FV guy and Peraza a 50 FV guy who's their #3 overall and who's hitting in Double-A. Trading him is going to sting but I think the Yankees are backed into a situation where they have to go big, and if they can be reassured that Gray and Story are both healthy — each has had his issues — I'd probably do it
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:00
Should the Reds consider trading Castellanos? Seems likely he'll exercise the opt out after this year and the Reds don't have an obvious path to the playoffs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
well, he's got a microfracture in his right wrist that will keep him out a couple of weeks and add to the risk of dealing him. I've criticized the Reds for not being aggressive enough; I think they're better off holding onto him, shoring up the right side of their infield, and trying to retain him if he opts out
The Old Professor
3:02
Is Aroldis Chapman broken?.. are his days as a top flight closer numbered?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
He's a bit of a mess, as I wrote a few weeks ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapmans-nosedive-is-dragging-the-...
3:03
the guy can still throw 100 and has developed a good 3rd pitch (the splitter), but I think it's his mechanics that are off right now. Seems fixable.
Ed Stettinius
3:03
If NYY acquires Story and moves Torres to 2B, any chance this will significantly improve the infield defense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
it will improve the defense massively. the two are 10 runs apart in DRS this year, and 25 over the last two seasons, with less than a full season's complement of innings.
Jake Leroux
3:05
If you're the Red Sox, what kind of production can you reasonably expect from Sale coming back from the IL?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
maybe 50 innings, 5 at a time, a bit wobbly at first but gaining strength and very useful in the postseason.
Joshua
3:06
Does Josh Harrison have any trade value above maybe a PTBNL? Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
now that he's returned to the land of the competent hitters, yes, but probably a PTBNL-level guy or two
WinTwins0410
3:07
Jay, why didn’t Rafael Palmeiro get more love from HoF voters compared to Sammy Sosa and Manny Ramirez? Palmeiro's WAR is much higher than Sammy Sosa’s and Manny's (and his JAWS is above the average HOF 1B), and he obviously cleared 3,000 hits and mashed 569 homers. Trying to compare writers' voting behavior for known and assumed juicers is probably a futile exercise, but still — Raffy fell off the ballot after just a couple years, while Manny and Sosa have continued to knock around the bottom half of the ballot. Your thoughts? I'm trying to figure out what the difference is on the part of the writers/voters. I assume some (all?) of it is punishment for his (dishonest) finger-wagging denial?  (Plus the fact that Palmeiro actually tested positive, whereas Sosa never actually did. Manny did, though!)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Two things regarding Palmeiro: he had the milestones but was never viewed as the type of superstar as Manny or Sosa were. Never led the league in anything significant. Plus he was the first guy to get caught, and it was red-handed, with a positive test and suspension instead of the murk of pre-survey infractions.
3:10
He was unlucky because the positive test was a very easy line to draw
JD
3:11
Would SD part with one of their top 4 prospects for Gallo? If not, what about if Tex took the Hosmer contract?
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