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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/25/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Howdy folks, good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I'm still digesting my amazing weekend at the Hall of Fame inductions in Cooperstown and neck deep in Replacement Level Killers, the fifth installment of which — corner outfielders — should be up soon. Obviously, there are a lot of questions about the July 31 trade deadline, so let's get to it.
Fry
12:02
Is pressure building up in the market that's going to explode before the 31st or is this going to be an uneventful deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
I think we'll see a lot of deals in the coming days. This breakdown from last year, compiled by the great Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, is worth bearing in mind:
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Last year:

4 trades during the All-Star break
1 trade on July 21
1 trade on July 22
1 trade on July 24
2 trade on July 25

Then the floodgates, 35 trades over the final 6 days (18 on July 31)
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Thus I suspect we'll start seeing a trickle of deals soon, and then a flood.
Niles
12:05
When it comes to acquiring Bauer, how much does his possible effect on the clubhouse come into play? The MVP Machine really spells out how much the Indians had to accommodate him and how he still alienated teammates, but on the flip side it also spelled out how helpful he was when it came to preaching his craft.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
I would imagine it's a factor but one individualized to each team — he's obviously not going to the Astros given the presence of Alex Bregman and Gerrit Cole, for example. I suspect that the execs of any teams who are serious about acquiring him are discreetly discussing his potential reception with a few clubhouse leaders for some added input. But talent still carries the day, and his is considerable, particularly in a market that's stretched pretty thin and one in which some of the other top targets — Bumgarner, Syndergaard — might not be dealt after all.
gashouse gorilla
12:09
Which teams do you think might me opportunistic at deadline, both buying low and selling? Teams with economic capacity to perhaps get into a 3-team trade to take salary in return for prospects
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
I wouldn't be surprised if we see several teams doing both. The Indians come to mind given the potential for dealing Bauer and the need for help in the infield and outfield corners. The Cardinals given that they're discussing guys like Carlos Martinez. The Giants given their bullpen depth. As for 3-team deals, always keep an eye out for the Dodgers and Padres.
Slew (Seattle)
12:11
Is Jose Ramirez good again? Related: What about the team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Ramirez is certainly hitting better this month (139 wRC+) so there's hope that he turned the corner. Craig Edwards had an in-depth look at the team yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-season-of-improbabilities-in-cleveland/). Obviously, now that they're two games out of first in the AL Central and occupying the top Wild Card spot, they appear to be a much-improved team from the start of the season
billie flyballish
12:13
Jay, does Kenley Jansen have any shot at the HOF? he started his run around 2010-2011, so if he sustains for another year or two at a high level (albeit, a diminished one relative to his peak) does he have any shot? 13.42 K/9 career is absurd relative to other closers in the hall, though this is a different era of course. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I wrote about the Hall chances for Jansen and Craig Kimbrel last October in advance of the World Series https://blogs.fangraphs.com/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-potent.... I don't think we can count this year as a high-level one yet; the regression I've seen from him over the past two seasons suggests he might not have the necessary staying power, and I say that as somebody who considers him among my favorite current players. That said, I am intrigued by his integration of his sinker and slider into his arsenal to a greater degree than before. Perhaps it will help him return to dominance, but we'll see.
Sanford
12:18
Great work on your Replacement-Level Killers series, once again. Can you see LAA trying to make a splash and shore up some of their weaknesses? Maybe even a landing spot for Thor? (Though not if the Mets demand Adell, I'd suspect)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Thank you for the kind words. I love doing this series, even in a season where the talk of pitching appears to dominate all trade deadline rumors. I wouldn't expect the Angels to make too much of an impact at the deadline, because they're not dealing Adell; their catching and first base situations make the Killers but they're not going to replace Pujols, and like everybody else, they need pitching. I'm not holding my breath for any team to trade for Syndergaard this week; I suspect that if it happens, it will be in the offseason.
Hello
12:22
How often does FG (and/or other sites) evaluate and/or adjust the magnitude of he positional adjustments?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
I'm not sure but I do know B-Ref keeps a close eye on that kind of stuff as well as other upgrades (such as this year's catcher defense adjustments and the additional data that comes with more play-by-play info from Retrosheet).
Giants fan
12:23
Hi Jay, thanks for the chats.  Much hand wringing here as you might imagine. On which side of the buy/sell argument do you fall for SF?  The real choice might be sell/stand pat.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Given the overall state of the organization as this season began, I think they should be selling regardless of what has and will happen in July, because their core has aged, their currently-hot hitters are likely not going to sustain this production (Alex Dickerson?), and their farm system is a bottom-third-ish one. Trade Bum, trade the relievers, trade Crawford and eat $, and if the right offer to trade Belt comes along, trade him, too.
dmitry
12:26
Is Mike Tauchman a starting caliber regular? Does he make Frazier expendable, or does he drop back to earth from his 4-WAR pace?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
I'm skeptical that Tauchman's current production (127 wRC+) is sustainable, and I wouldn't take him ahead of Frazier due to his age, even with the redhead's lousy defense. I'm not sold that Tauchman is a first-division regular, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's used as a trade chip in the right deal. Hypothetically, he could help the Giants or Indians at an outfield corner for years to come if the Yankees do include him in a blockbuster for a big-name starter — not as the headliner, obviously but as a supplemental piece.
Hello
12:30
Thor for Deivi Garcia?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
It's an idea worth considering. The Yankees wouldn't be the first team to sell high on an undersized starting pitching prospect.
Ryan
12:33
In reality, the Rays are ten games back of the Yankees; by BaseRuns, the Rays are six games better than the Yankees.  Which statistic do you think better reflects the talent of the respective teams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I think those are both extreme. Note that the Yankees have a four-game advantage in Pythagorean record, and a two-game advantage in ROS depth charts record. I'd say the Yankees are better by a handful of games, but all that really matters in the end is the actual standings. They don't give out projected standings or BaseRuns pennants.
12:37
That reminds me that my first year of doing the Prospectus Hit List (2005), which took the average of a player's actual, first-, second-, and third-order Pythag records, the Indians topped the season-ending list AND missed the playoffs by two games. Off to a flying start!
Craig
12:38
What teams does Eric Sogard get traded to where he is an everyday starter? CHI? Who else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
My guess is Cubs or Brewers, both of whom have Replacement Level Killers in their middle infields. (2B Cubs, SS Brewers)
Craig
12:40
Anibal Sanchez has had a strong May, June, July after a poor start to the season. Do you expect him to keep this up through the summer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Check your data, he's got a 6.16 FIP this month while striking out and walking 4.24 per nine. His overall FIP (4.73) is about the same as his FIP since May 1 (4.67). I expect some regression.
ben
12:41
Has Addison Russell played his last major-league game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Doubt it. Sending him down wasn't a punitive measure for his DV infraction, it was primarily a reaction to a roster crunch, though his missing signs didn't help. I don't believe the Cubs have the guts to cut bait on him outright, and even if they do, some other team will snap him up, because that's the way the world unfortunately works.
12:47
What Should Jay Eat For Lunch
Banh Mi (35.2% | 25 votes)
 
Dumplings (33.8% | 24 votes)
 
Poke (31% | 22 votes)
 
Total Votes: 71
Poll is open until 1 pm ET.
Jackson
12:49
Jansen's 13.42 K/9 rate is impressive, but the context kills his Hall of Fame chances.  This is an era in which someone like Matt Barnes can strike out 17 per 9 innings.  That's not to disparage Matt Barnes; it's just to show that a high K rate does not a Hall of Famer make, at least in this era.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I pushed for years to get K%+, and now that we've finally gotten it (thanks, Dave!) we can see that Jansen's 184 is the third-highest mark of the past decade (500 IP min) behind only Kimbrel and Chapman. It's a point in his favor but it's not going to be the lone driver of a Hall case. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=5...
Jenski
12:51
Would Nick Castellanos accept a qualifying offer? Think that comp pick would have more value than trading him if he were to decline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
I think he gets deal by July 31 because the market is short in bats and because the Tigers are still terrible; they need something that's closer to ready than a comp pick , and it sounds like he could be part of a larger package involving either Greene or Boyd, which boosts their chances of landing a premium prospect.
Chuck-it
12:53
Why are teams more enamored with Bauer over Stroman? Aside from the gaudy strikeout totals, which aren't leading to a better FIP, and the innings, Stroman has the advantage in every other category, including salary. Are people hoping that Bauer can magically be anything like his ridiculous outlier of a season a year ago? Or are they just selling Stroman short?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I think the preference for Bauer over Stroman comes down to health and upside. Barring disaster, Bauer is headed for his fifth straight season of 170 IP, and was worth 5.8 WAR as recently as last year. Stroman, who has already had an injury scare this year, is trying to secure his third season of 170 IP and has never topped 3.4 WAR. He just doesn't miss nearly as many bats.
Jason N
12:56
MLB did a piece on every team’s next Hall of Famer.  I was surprised they pegged Tatis for the Padres instead of Machado.  Is Machado on a HoF path?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Yes, I think so. Wrote about it in February https://blogs.fangraphs.com/harper-machado-betts-and-history/
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