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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/25/19

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stever20

12:59

had a question about the single trade deadline. What happens with a guy that gets DFA'd. Are teams then not allowed to trade him?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

I'm not 100% sure but that would appear to follow from the fact that trades of players on major league contracts aren't allowed in August

Trent

1:01

The Rockies were 9th in SP WAR last year, but are 19th in SP WAR this year. What happened, and is it something that's correctable?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela have both had disastrous seasons because young pitching is designed to break your heart. I haven't looked closely at either pitcher but I know that neither has had a major injury this year. So there's some hope at least.

Fang Raphs

1:03

Seems like Manny Ramirez has a borderline HOF case at least, but he's been stuck at 22% last two ballots. Odds he gets voted in traditionally?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Manny's numbers are pretty squarely HOF caliber, but two PED suspensions is probably the death knell of his candidacy. It will take a major philosophical change among the electorate for him to get to 75%, and i just don't see that happening in his final seven years on the ballot.

Benji

1:05

Even if the prices are as high as reported, are you surprised we haven't seen one "early" July trade? There are so many bubble teams (NL especially) where one game could make all the difference. That coupled with the singular deadline should have resulted in more urgency across the board

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I think anybody who says they knew for certain what the new deadline setup would bring is full of BS, but yes, I'm a bit surprised we didn't see a major late June/early July blockbuster so that a team could separate itself from the pack. That suggests to me that asking prices have been ridonkulous and won't come down until on or around the 31st.

Benji

1:07

Do you think once the Yankees realize that no one wants Clint Frazier headlining a deal for a quality SP, that they will A) trade him for relief help or B) stubbornly hold on to him and continue to squander his career?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

I don't think the Yankees are trading him for relief help, and I expect he'll be a significant piece in a deal for a starter. He's a good but flawed player, and I've heard that while the front office isn't terribly fond of him, they're not going to sell low just based upon that.

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:09

Aaron Judge is playing at a 9+ WAR pace, and just being a beast. Is it just me, or is he flying under the radar this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Missing two months — about half of the season to to this point — will certainly leave your counting stats nowhere near the top of the league, so yes, I'd say he's flying under the radar.

OK, the polls are closed, and banh mi edged dumplings by one vote, 25-24, with poke a close third at 22. There will be a pause while I order.

1:12

Spicy chicken banh mi and summer rolls order. Thanks for voting!

Trey

1:12

The Diamondbacks signaled they were rebuilding by trading Goldschmidt and letting Pollock walk, but they are now tied with the Giants at 52-51, and they have a much better claim to be legitimate contenders, given their third-best run differential in the NL. If the Giants are now considered potential buyers, shouldn't the DBacks be as well? And if so, what might they try to acquire?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I don't believe the Dbacks view themselves as contenders, and I think they'll move Robbie Ray while hoping to do the same with Zack Greinke.

Also Jay

1:13

What available reliever do you think fits best with the Nats?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Literally any of them. Draw a Venn diagram with All Available Relievers Except Trevor Rosenthal inside it and there you go.

mikesixel

1:15

Gut feeling, do the Twins collapse and lose the division, maybe even miss the playoffs? Odds they make a big trade?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

No, I think they'll hold on. They need pitching and I suspect the front office will be able to convince ownership to be appropriately aggressive.

Chuck-it

1:16

I love the additions that you guys have added to the individual player pages, like service time and Rule 5 eligibility. Can I request one more - 40 man status.

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Noted.

stever20

1:16

who this year has helped themselves the most in terms of the HOF? Sabathia with #250?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Sabathia's 250th win and 3,000th strikeout were both inevitable given his totals coming into the season. Yes, they probably increase his odds incrementally, but I think the strong seasons of Greinke, Scherzer, and Verlander, which suggest that they aren't nearly done, are a bigger deal from a future HOF perspective.

Chris

1:19

Were the 95-97 mariners the best team to never win a world series? They had Edgar, arod, Griffey and Randy johnson

Jay Jaffe

1:20

They're certainly a contender but we can just as easily include the Indians from that period in the picture. Manny, Belle (1995), Thome, Lofton, and even the best years of Vizquel. If only they had more pitching...

Brian

1:21

Jay, I just wanted to express my gratitude to you and all the fangraphs crew for providing a real source of joy in my life. The content of late has been without parallel in analytical journalism. To you and all of the fangraphs crew, Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Thank you for the kind words!

Craig

1:22

Which trade deadline rumored pitcher do you like most for the remainder of this season - Leake, Minor, Lynn?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Our projections say Lynn, Minor, Leake in that order; I'd call it a toss-up between the first two, with perhaps a slight preference for Lynn because his major arm injury from a few years ago was elbow (TJ), not shoulder (labrum).

Craig

1:27

Is Justin Smoak simply a bat off the bench for any contender?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Probably something closer to a platoon option given his splits (123 wRC+ vs RH, 73 vs LH). The Nationals come to mind, as he could pair with Matt Adams.

1:31

General note: odds are I'm not going to publish your 300-word rant posing as a chat question.

LLW

1:31

Would you ever, under any circumstances, order soup at the ballpark

Jay Jaffe

1:32

If David Chang brings Momofuku ramen to Citi Field, I would consider that, for sure — not on a hot day, obvs, and not to take back to my seat.

Anthony

1:32

Hi Jay, I think Ted Williams is probably the most underrated inner circle HOFer when one considers his WAR plus years lost where he could have accumulated other WAR. Penny for your thoughts please as the HOF maestro.

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Williams' career totals are certainly a bit light because of his military service, but his relative lack of defensive value keeps him out of the Ruth/Bonds/Mays tier for the all-time greatest. Mike Trout is working his way into that tier if he isn't already there.

Garm

1:34

Who do you think is the most likely target for the Braves at the deadline this year? Minor? Stroman? Financial flexibility?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

Either Minor or Stroman make sense given that they're relatively inexpensive, salary-wise, and that the Braves are throwing nickels around like they're manhole covers.

David

1:36

The 95-97 Mariners weren’t even the best Mariners team ever. Did you forget about 2001?

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