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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/25/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the last July edition of my FanGraphs chat
I'm back from an exhilarating and exhausting Hall of Fame Induction Weekend in Cooperstown
2:03
Had a blast there, got to do some pretty fun stuff!
Back here on earth, the second installment of this year's Replacement Level Killers is up, covering second basemen https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-replacement-level-killers-second-...
And now, on with the show
So you're telling me there is a chance
2:04
Hi Jay.   I'm going to the Blue Jays vs Angels game on Saturday.   Where would you put the odds of me seeing Ohtani play, with the trade deadline quickly approaching?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
I think the odds of Ohtani being traded are very low, honestly
2:05
I think Arte is unwilling to trade him to another California team (the Dodgers and Padres come to mind) and believe they can make a strong pitch to re-sign him
Fat Elvis
2:06
Comparing Lance Berkman’s numbers to Fred McGriff, makes me wonder if Lance should be a HOFer. Fred compiled more, but Lance seems better on a rate basis (and OPS+). How do you distinguish the two?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
Both are short for me. McGriff ranks only 33rd in JAWS among 1B (52.6/36.0/44.3), nine points below the standard. Berkman is 19th among LF (52.0/39.2/45.6) about eight points below the standard. He did that in over 2000 fewer plate appearances, and is a better hitter on a rate basis 9144-134 in OPS+) but he's not truly a high-peak guy relative to the positional standard (41.8)
I don't think one subpar choice justifies lowering the bar for another
Ron
2:11
Your thoughts on Julio Urias for ROS....can he right the ship and get back to somewhat consistent ace level?  Dodgers need him to be in October for sure. Thanks
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Man, I wish I knew. At his best,  he's obviously a very good pitcher, but we've rarely seen his best this year, He's been very homer-prone, and has gotten knocked around by a lot of sub-.500 teams
The irony is that this might keep him a Dodger, if they make him a qualifying offer and he uses that to get a second chance to set his market
Adam B.
2:13
Tell us about something else you spotted in the Hall's collection this weekend which made you glad to see it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Two photos and accompanying objects that are new from this spring: a photo of Ohtani striking out Trout to end the World Baseball Classic championship game, accompanied by Ohtani's cap:
2:15
2:16
And the batting helmet of Olivia Pichardo, the first woman to play for an NCAA Division I team, Brown University (my alma mater):
2:17
Speaking of the latter, Pichardo homered in a wood bat summer league this weekend https://www.mlb.com/news/olivia-pichardo-first-woman-to-homer-wood-bat...
seth r
2:17
What is your favorite exhibit in Cooperstown? I was dumbstruck by the sheer amount of 'lore' available to the museum curators when I went for Larkin's induction
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I love the A Whole New Ballgame exhibit, of the stuff from the 1970s onward. So vibrant and varied. Also the Shoebox Memories exhibit dedicated to baseball cards.
Hayes
2:19
Hey everyone, am I the only one worried that Ohtani is going to be insanely overpaid this offseason? Obviously he’s a top 3 hitter( I believe Judge and Yordan are better) but pitching wise he’s ranked 27th and 26th in ERA and xERA. His hitting numbers suggest he should get around $350m and then his pitching stats suggest he should get around $100-$130m. Add that up and your looking at a $450m player. I’ve heard though that the market could be $600m!?. That just seems high to especially with how common pitching injuries are that you could be losing a pitcher as well as a hitter if he were to have Tommy John. Thoughts on this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
his pitching stats have been compromised by his recent blister issues, which have inflated his ERA. Regardless, whoever signs him isn't just doing a simple mathematical estimate based on his value — there's a marquee value there that's not accounted for, and whoever signs him is likely to be the one that values him the most highly beyond performance, mainly for his ability to improve attendance and ratings.
2:22
That said, even the best players don't tend to get paid at the dollar value their projections suggest. I think $600M is a bit extreme but I wouldn't be surprised at $500M
Steve
2:23
Jay, i noticed that the brewers are in first place in the NL central and have a negative Pythagorean Win Expectancy (-5). How common is it for such a team to win a division? pennant? world series? Have the latter two ever been done with a PWE for the season being negative?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
It happens. The 1987 Twins are the only team to win a World Series despite being outscored but several others have won a division title or made the playoffs, including the 2007 Diamondbacks (90-72 but -20 runs) https://www.mlb.com/news/playoff-teams-with-negative-run-differential
omar
2:29
there's no way the Orioles would trade Holliday for Ohtani, right? is Ohtani's trade value being overstated considering he's only a 2 month rental?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
no way the O's do that. The thing about Ohtani's trade value is that you're adding BOTH a player who's probably going to be your best hitter AND a frontline starter, albeit one who might require you juggle your rotation a little. His DH-only status creates some issues as far as resting other players, but he does save you a roster spot. Whoever trades for him will almost certainly overpay in a rational sense, but that's what it's going to take to separate yourself from the other offers if you really do want him
Theo be Praised
2:31
Many teams with high payrolls (NYY, SDP, NYM, etc) are doing poorly.  Many with low payrolls (TBR, CIN, BAL, ARI, etc) are having surprisingly good years.  Anything we can learn from that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
Yes: That's Baseball, Suyzn.
2:32
There's always a lot of handwringing over how much money teams spend, but at best it's an imperfect mechanism to improve your club, it doesn't guarantee anything.
2:33
Which doesn't mean you should never spend big — you're not going to get or keep star players if you don't, and that has a lot with the way fans and even other players perceive your team.
Dave in St Paul
2:33
What do you think Joe Mauers HOF percent will be on his time on the ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
I think he falls short this winter, with something in the 60-65% range, but gets in next year.
Theo be Praised
2:34
If the Cubs trade Bellinger, do they have a legit chance to resign him?  That almost never happens, but this circumstance (1 year pillow, Boras client) seems like one where it could, no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
It rarely happens, and unless Bellinger REALLY liked his time there I'd be skeptical he would be so inclined. That team is several moves away from being a powerhouse, and unless they make other moves to convince him that they're building a contender, I'm not sure why he'd go there unless their offer blows the others away.
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