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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:00
Hey hey, party people! As if there weren't already a shortage of hours for me in this week — between the impending trade deadline, my Replacement-Level Killers series, Hall of Fame Induction Weekend (with travel to Cooperstown), a couple of TV appearances, the  one-year anniversary of The Cooperstown Casebook's publication social obligations, podcasts, parental obligations and, wait, what was that other thing? Ah, SLEEP — I appear to have opened this chat queue early. The questions are piling up, so let's get to it!
stever20
12:01
loving the replacement-level killers series....  for the Rockies with the way Desmond has bounced back- they have to just keep him at 1b and ignore the first 6-7 weeks of the season now right?  Far bigger areas to worry about?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Glad you've enjoyed the series! Including the pending publication of the corner outfielders piece (today) and centerfielders (tomorrow, fingers willing), the Rockies have RLKs at every position besides 3B (Arenado) and SS (Story). Jeff Bridich is the boy who doesn't have enough fingers to plug every hole in the dike... if he were also simultaneously shooting holes in said dike by playing Gerardo Parra et al. Realistically, the Rockies are going to play Desmond somewhere anyway, but they desperately need another couple of bats if they're going to stay in this thing.
Lilith
12:05
I'm curious about your definition of an "inner circle hall of famer". If you had to create statistical cut-off points for who is a hall of famer, and who is in the inner circle, where would you, personally, put that line? 90+ WAR? 60+ WAR7? Some other stat altogether?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
In the Cooperstown Casebook, I divided Hall of Famers at each position into three tiers, the Elite, the Rank and File and the Basement. The Elite are ones who exceed the career, peak and JAWS standards at their position. Circa the Hall of Fame's 75th anniversary of its opening in 2014, there were 75 such members. Now, that doesn't include some particularly noteworthy players, most notably Jackie Robinson, who obviously belongs on that top tier but had his career shortened by the color line. But to the extent that I care to distinguish the top shelf from the rest, that's more or less my working definition.
Bo
12:08
Strasburg back on the shelf... Does this qualify for "something extreme" that Mike Rizzo referred to regarding becoming sellers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Probably not, even if he's done for the season. As rough as it's been, the Nationals have too much upside to wave the white flag right now. Murphy's been improving, Ryan Zimmerman's back, Harper is trending upwards (albeit slightly). I haven't counted them out yet, but losing Strasburg again is a blow.
Bo
12:11
The Braves rotation could use an upgrade... Should they acquire help before the deadline, who's the odd man out? Teheran?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
The bottom line is that you can't have too much pitching, particularly on a young team where guys are going to head into uncharted territory, innings-wise. My guess is that if/when the Braves add a starter, giving Folty and Newcomb breathers at some point — a turn skipped here or there, a brief flirtation with a six-man rotation — is part of the plan.
Nick
12:14
Trevor Hoffman gets inducted to the Hall of Fame. He could be the last Padre for a longgggg time. Who do you think the next one would be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Fernando Tatis IV
AJ
12:15
So the yanks look like they're closing in on J.A. Happ.. I don't see why they need to make this move, it seems more likely that they'll get essentially what they got out of Jaime Garcia last season from him, though I guess it depends what they give up.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
You apparently haven't been paying attention to the struggles of Sonny Gray, Domingo German or (lately) CC Sabathia.

You.
Can't.
Have.
Too.
Much.
Pitching
Rollie's Mustache
12:17
What will happen first: The Blue Jays playing on real grass or Montreal having a major league team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Canada did just legalize marijuana and the Blue Jays are out of the race, so...

Seriously, it's a lot easier to upgrade or get a new ballpark than it is to get a new franchise, so the answer to this is always going to be the Blue Jays.
David
12:20
What's your closest comp to what Soto has been doing as a 19-year old?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Bryce Harper is standing right there, man. Granted, the shape of Harper's production in his age-19 season (121 wRC+, 4.4 WAR) is a different shape from that of Juan Soto (155 wRC+, 1.8 WAR), it was also over a 597 PA season compared to Soto at 231.

It's actually a tougher comp than that. Soto has the highest wRC+ of any 19-year-old with at least 200 PA; Mel Ott, at 140 in 499 PA is ranked second, but he was also already in his 3rd MLB season. 3rd-ranked Tony Conigliaro, 138 wRC+ in 444 PA, might be more apt. See https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=2...
Eppler's inner Dipoto
12:26
Can the Angels bundle a few controllable relievers to get a solid prospect? Anyone interested in Kinsler or Maldonado?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Maldonado might be of interest to the Yankees, who just lost Sanchez for a month, as well as a few other teams, but he's not going to bring back much more than a lottery ticket. Likewise for Kinsler, who may be an August waiver guy if he goes on a 2-week binge. But I don't think there's any huge windfall to be had by dealing their relievers.
AT
12:29
Is Daniel Murphy healthy and ready to go?  His numbers in July are good (.300 with some pop)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Fun with arbitrary endpoints time: he's at .308/.356/.423 (110 wRC+) since 6/22. A bit higher if you move the line closer. I'd say he's moving in the right direction.
redsfan123
12:32
Any thoughts on Eugenio Suarez? 8th in baseball in wRC+, and has been killing the ball all season. (And he missed 3 weeks of the season).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Very underrated player. I've been on the Suarez train for awhile, said nice things about him in previous chats and our positional power rankings this spring. Glad he's making me look somewhat intelligent.
Rox Fan
12:34
Is there a rental bat out there who makes sense for the Rockies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Can they rent the New York Yankees for two months?
Dave
12:35
I know the Nats aren't trading Harper. But just for fun, what's the best realistic package you could imagine for him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
take the Machado package and replace Diaz with a top 10 prospect, another top 100 guy and 3 side dishes. Limiting it to contenders, maybe it's the Astros in a package topped by Kyle Tucker?
Ricky
12:39
Trades seem to be sneaking up on people more than usual this year. Are teams better at plugging leaks, or is this a result of fewer beat reporters and news staff?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Maybe it's some of what you mentioned but I think it has more to do with teams not waiting until the deadline to make their moves. It's tough for a reporter to maintain the last-48-hours intensity over a two-week span.
Jordan
12:43
Did the Jays do well in the Oh return?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45


As I haven't even read anybody's take on the trade, you're better off waiting to see what Eric and Kiley have to say about it than waiting for me to form an opinion after 2 minutes of "research"
Ricky
12:45
Any chance the Sox can get Gavin Lux from the Dodgers for Soria + Cedeno, if we also take Forsyth's contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
The Dodgers are understandably very wary of trading Lux, but I could see that kind of framework — Forsythe plus somebody it might hurt to lose - being applied to whatever big move they make by the deadline
Jason Gottlieb
12:51
Is the Yankees bullpen the best in recent memory? I don't remember the last time a team had at least four closer caliber relievers. (Chapman, Britton, Betances, Robertson)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:54
As an expert on the HOF, your specialty is perhaps the slowest-moving one on Fangraphs. There are no weekend trades, no guys suddenly tearing up the AFL, no pitchers playing third to get GIFs of. Other than actual elections and the seasonal awards, there are few time-sensitive articles to write. Do you like the ability to take your time, or do you wish that things were more dynamic? I imagine very few articles "write themselves" the way they might when Scooter hits five homers or the Yankees trade for Britton and precisely no one is surprised at what either team did.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Fortunately, Hall of Fame coverage isn't my only marketable skill! I like to be able to take my time, but there are time-sensitive pieces on that beat, too — Robinson Cano and Chase Utley come to mind — and the exhaustion that comes with the election cycle, from late November into January, takes its toll, too.

Mostly I'm just lucky I tapped into a renewable resource and built the credibility to become a go-to in that area. It's opened a lot of doors for me.
Conner from AZ
12:59
Do you find it as dumb as I do that MLB completely nullifies games like the Red Sox-Orioles last night? The players all produced real results in a real competition. But because the game didn't go some arbitrary length of time, we are just going to say it didn't happen? Why can't games just resume from where they stopped play?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
I'd be in favor of a rule requiring the resumption of any game that is started, if it has playoff implications.
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