JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/18

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PTBNL

1:01

Given their record, are you surprised to see the red sox pop up so often in the replacement-level killer series (2B, 3B, C)? Or does that kind of fit with the stars&scrubs roster approach the team has taken?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

It kind of fits, but let's not discount the impact of injuries (Pedroia, Vazquez). Betts is so head-and-shoulders above just about anybody in the league besides Trout and Jose Ramirez that he alone allows them to gut out a situation, and the strength of the outfield certainly helps.

Colin

1:03

How do you feel about the Statcast Outs Above Average fielding metric? Do you favor it over DRS/UZR, or is it too new at this point?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

It's a bit too new. When I can get an approximation in runs of what 5 or 10 outs above average means, and incorporate it into a WAR framework, or at least contrast it with what one says (as we do with BP catcher framing data), I'll pay more attention.

mike sixel

1:06

Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellar play, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

Scott

1:10

Doesn't your division short a player like Sandy Koufax, who's short in all three?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Yes, so? Koufax had a short career AND a short peak. Even in his top six seasons, two of them are missing about a third of the time due to injuries., and the impact of his home park had a massive effect on the numbers and the perception of his talent. The special distinction of the no-hitters and postseason dominance aren't captured by WAR, but they're not captured for anyone else, either, so if I'm making an objective determination on a cutoff point, I'm fine if it has a miss like that.

I love Sandy Koufax as much as any Jewish third-generation Dodgers fan can, but I'm not blind to the nuances of case. If I needed one pitcher to win one game, he's at or near the top of my list, but his career wasn't that of Randy Johnson or Walter Johnson.

Da Bum

1:16

I'm growing concerned that Bryant had a chronic shoulder issue that explains his disappearing power the past two years. Talk me down from the ledge Jay!

Jay Jaffe

1:18

I dunno how chronic it is, but the link between the shoulder issue and lesser power is almost certainly more than a coincidence. That said — and I say this without having not looked closely — I wonder if Bryant has gone too far in the other direction when it comes to tweaking his swing to cut down on strikeouts, a change he made a couple years ago. It might be time to review that.

1:18

I'm loving the RLK series so far! Is there a place to view WAR by position for all 30 teams?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Thanks! Go here: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0... and then adjust the split (and the year) to the position you want. Click on the team just to see its players in only that position; toggle to the Advanced tab if you want to see wRC+. This area is one of my favorite little features of FanGraphs!

1:21

Which teams that are reasonably in playoff contention have too many holes to fill to remain competitive?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

The Rockies stand out as one, and I think I'd put the Brewers there as well, particularly once you compound the effect of losing Suter to Tommy John surgery

1:24

Why not Manny Machado as the padres next HOF'er? It seems to me that he's exactly who a team on the back end of rebuilding should target, because they'll have him for all their good seasons.

Jay Jaffe

1:25

There's going to be no shortage of bidders for Machado's services, including some of the bigger spenders, so I'm not going to assume he lands in SD.

Billy Bonds

1:25

Thanks for chatting with us, Jay. Regarding JAWS: both career WAR and peak WAR are weighted equally in the calculation (as they are added and divided by two). How much thought was given to making it a 50-50 split? Do you think both measures are equally important when considering a person's HOF case, or were you just trying to keep the math simple and easily understood/applicable? Thanks again!

Jay Jaffe

1:30

The choice has a lot to do with simplicity. When I started JAWS, I was using BP's WARP, whch had a lower replacement level, and using a player's best 5-year run, allowing for injuries and military service, as peak. At some point within the first couple of years I did a quick and dirty study and decided that 7 years at large made for a better fit with who's in/out; 5 was too fiew and at 10, you might as well be using career WAR.

From an objective standpoint, that decision might be worth reviewing, but to me, erring on the side of simplicity while acknowledging that JAWS has its limitations is the best way to go.

1:30

While you can't have too much pitching, 10 of the Braves' top 20 prospects are pitchers due to arrive sometime between now and 2020, all with FV 45 or above. Is now the time to start dealing some of them?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I think they can afford to deal from depth in order to enhance their chances this year, yes.

Alan

1:31

When Pujols is inevitably elected to the HOF, which hat will he wear? His stat distribution screams STL, but he'll still be employed by the Angels under the personal services portion of his contract, or whatever it's called. Will that have any affect on how he's enshrined?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I'd bet strongly on the Hall imposing a Cardinals hat on him in the event that there is resistance. The numbers and the championships make that an obvious pick.

BigDavid

1:32

Do you think the Mets can get a better return on Wheeler than the Rays received for Eovaldi? Should they even trade Wheeler?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Better return: yes, because Wheeler has another year of club control and has been a bit better this year.

Should they? eh, I'm not sure I want the current car of clowns making even the smallest decisions about the future direction of the team.

All Cats Are Beautiful

1:33

Just wanted to let you know I'm still boycotting the HOF until Susan Sarandon and Tim Robbins receive apologies and an invitation. I'm not the only one.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

that's a helluva grudge to be carrying, particularly as the president who slighted them, Dale Petroskey, resigned more than a decade ago. I was pretty pissed with how he handled that situation, but if I can get over it, I think you might be able to

hscer

1:36

let's no gloss over the fact that Mel Ott was a reasonably good MLB hitter by 17/18

Jay Jaffe

1:38

Wasn't trying to gloss over it. The fact that he was in his 3rd year at age 19 should have made his competence in that area clear, but if it needs saying: through age 19, Ott had a 127 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR, tied with Harper to that point https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0...

1:39

Important trade and amusing update

First was @Feinsand not @SenFeinstein

Brewers acquire Joakim Soria @SenFeinstein 1st

1:39

LAA sending Maldonado to Houston!

Jay Jaffe

1:39

confirmed

Angels deal catcher Martin Maldonado to Astros ocregister.com/2018/07/26/ang…

Adam

1:39

Hello, Jay! I'm hoping to purchase your book as a birthday gift to my dad, the biggest baseball history nut I know. Is there a particular vendor you prefer buyers to go through?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

If you'd like a signed copy and won't be in Cooperstown this weekend, you can buy from Politics and Prose in Washington, DC, which probably still has stock on hand from my appearance there a couple weeks ago, or Greenlight in Brooklyn, where I'll go and sign AND personalize the book on demand: https://cooperstowncasebook.com/2017/07/21/signed-copies-of-the-cooper...

ben

1:41

Sam Miller has a new piece about Bartolo Colon making the HOF. Fun piece (as usual), but zero chance of happening, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

Even if we assume Jack Morris' election lowered the performance bar enough to make Colon's candidacy credible — and here I should point out that Bart is 139th to Jack's 163rd in JAWS ranking — the PED suspension is a huge stumbling block. If it's gonna keep A-Rod, Palmeiro and Manny out, it's gonna keep him out as well.

1:43

What do you see the Brewers doing in the next week? They have been connected to seemingly everyone

Jay Jaffe

1:43

as the Soria move shows, they're making moves. I'd expect something to upgrade at least one middle infield spot and add a starter

Cole Hamels

1:43

Tell me something to make me feel good about myself please

Jay Jaffe

1:44

You look positively dashing with a mustache. Grow it back and your trade stock will rebound.

Jimmy

1:47

Is Nolan Arenado finally going to win the MVP Award this year?

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