JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/29/22

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat. I'm back from a great weekend in Cooperstown, where I survived the 7-man induction ceremony in the blistering heat and got to do some cool stuff like go to the BBWAA party for Lifetime Achievement Award winner Tim Kurkjian at the Otesaga Resort Hotel, the Saturday evening cocktail party in the Hall of Fame plaque gallery, and the party the White Sox threw on behalf of Minnie Miñoso.

2:03

I've been writing up a storm since returning, with just one entry to go in my annual Replacement Level Killers series, highlighting the biggest lineup holes on contenders. The corner outfielder installment just went up a little while ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2022-replacement-level-killers-left-fi...

2:05

With the trade deadline just 4 days away, i see no shortage of questions in the queue about potential trades. I'll get to some but i'm not going to dwell upon too many because I'm not somebody who has a deep knowledge of prospects and farm systems.

Bill

2:06

Likelihood of Soto landing spots by percentage?

Jay Jaffe

2:09

Based on multiple reports it appears that the Padres and Cardinals are the two teams way out in front of the pack because of their mixes of controllable young major leaguers and high-ceiling prospects. I'd say that while it's possible that no trade goes down, we're looking at a 47.6289% chance of the Padres getting him (that's an exact figure, btw), about a 31.4858333% chance of the Cardinals getting him, the Dodgers at 4.97367%, the Yankees at 3%, and then the rest of the field making up the remainder.

2:12

Do you think Strider and Harris would be enough to headline an Ohtani trade? And would you think about it if you were the Braves?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Funny thing, I just plugged those into the Baseball Trade Values site and it called it a "minor overpay" in the Angels' favor, so I think that's actually on track as the start something that could work.

2:15

And yes, I'd certainly think about it if the Angels were into it. Both of those prospects have risen quickly this year but there does still seem to be some concern about Strider winding up in the bullpen and whether Harris can hold onto those gains.

Oakland

2:15

If Montas, Murphy, and Laureano are moved, where does our our farm rank after the trade deadline?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

Gonna go out on a limb and suggests that's all going to depend upon the returns. THE BOARD has the A's farm system ranked 21st right now https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-...

2:16

Would it take a better package for Seattle to acquire Montas as opposed to Castillo because the A’s are in the division? Or is that type of thing overblown?

Jay Jaffe

2:18

Probably a little overblown but not out of the question that it could be a factor. Of course that's assuming the two trade candidates are equal, and here I'd favor Castillo a bit

Theo Epstein

2:19

Do the Red Sox buy, sell, or both?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

i suspect they'll reshuffle, selling off some pending free agents (Martinez, Vazquez, Eovaldi) and trying to get some controllable players in hopes of a better showing next year

Max

2:20

How would the approach the deadline if you were in Mike Elias' position?

Jay Jaffe

2:22

I wouldn't push too hard towards contending this year. Trade pending free agents if the offers are good, trade Santander because the corner outfield market is limited.

>this guy<

2:22

with the disclaimer that no one is pulling for anyone's unemployment, which 4 or 5 disappointing or rebuilding teams' f.o. staffs have the hottest seats? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Jay Jaffe

2:22

If Detroit isn't among those five then i just have no interest in this exercise

2:23

Red Sox and Royals stand out as others

McBain

2:23

As an old Padre fan, I find myself ready to part with almost any prospects to improve the chance of a WS before I shuffle off this mortal coil. Justifiable or selfish?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

If history has taught us anything it's that teams (and fans) tend to hug their prospects too closely. Most of them don't pan out to be the kind of studs that will be missed.

andrew friedman

2:25

assuming I dont trade for a top player (castillo/soto/ohtani) what is the top prospect I end up trading away

Jay Jaffe

2:25

Maybe Michael Busch given Lux's solidification

viceroy

2:26

Middle infield is a bit of a wasteland with so many contenders playing subpar guys out there or established guys underperforming. Who are big names on the move and are there any potentially surprising moves like sticking a powerful bat at 2nd as some teams have done in the past?

Jay Jaffe

2:29

If you count Ian Happ as a second baseman — and he's made just 4 starts there in the past 3 seasons so you can be forgiven for not doing so I think he could be the biggest one moved. I don't see any stars moving because the pending FA market is guys like Brandon Drury and Donavan Solano. Wrote about the situation here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2022-replacement-level-killers-second-...

Guards

2:29

Do u expect Cleveland to have a busy deadline and what type of moves do you think they will look to make

Jay Jaffe

2:33

they've supposedly been among the more aggressive teams in their pursuit of starting pitching, but they're apparently also listening on controllable guys like Civale and Plesac.

The Twins, Guardians & White Sox - separated by just 3 games in the AL Central - are among the most aggressive teams in the pitching market right now, per sources. According to one executive from a potential seller, “They all think they have a shot and are trying to get better.”

I don't think they'll upgrade at catcher given that they've been on the RLK list with him two years in a row with virtually identical performances

Steven

2:33

The HoF festivities happening during games is really silly in my opinion. How do you feel? Did you speak with anyone in Cooperstown during your trip who said they want it changed? It seems so perfect to have it during the all star break.

Jay Jaffe

2:35

You absolutely cannot get the All-Star and Hall of Fame festivities opposite each other and expect any kind of coverage for the latter, and no, I didn't hear anybody suggesting they would want the two to go up against each other. What needs to change is that the draft shouldn't be during the All-Star festivities. I also wouldn't mind if Inductions got moved to , like, Labor Day weekend so the heat isn't quite so oppressive (note to self: buy a lighter-weight sport coat for next year).

Jack

2:36

Based on what you're hearing, how likely is it that the Angels move Ohtani? How does an Ohtani deal compare to a Soto deal in terms of prospects, given fewer years of team control?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

I think it's far less likely that Ohtani gets moved than Soto. As for the returns, our 2022 Trade Value series, where Ohtani ranked 26th and Soto 6th, should help give you an idea of the relative returns.

Curious Jorge

2:39

Who is the most talented player - and one who established a level of talent in the major leagues - who didn't make the Hall of Fame? (Whether due to injury and/or surprise decline and/or early retirement, or whatever). JR Richard comes to mind for pitchers, maybe? Hitters? Kal Daniels is one, but I don't think he quite established himself fully. Eric Davis? Darryl Strawberry?

Jay Jaffe

2:39

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens

The Chicken

2:39

What was the best part of the HOF weekend?

Jay Jaffe

2:43

Seeing the enshrinement of O'Neill and Miñoso, two pivotal figures whose careers crossed from the Negro Leagues into the integrated majors. It was bittersweet to see them inducted, mind you, since both have passed away after having their hearts broken by falling short while they were still alive, but there was a lot of joy and closure with their inductions.

On the subject of those, I had some great conversations with Negro Leagues Museum president Bob Kendrick, U of Illinois professor Adrian Burgos, Jr. (a big Miñoso booster), and Hall president Josh Rawitch, among others. And I had a brief but emotional conversation with Miñoso's widow, Sharon. Powerful stuff.

James

2:44

Yordan is currently having the best non-Bonds season of the last 25 years. I feel like that should be talked about more

Jay Jaffe

2:44

Mike Trout says hi, like about eight times over.

2:46

Alvarez is having a great year with the bat, carrying a 202 wRC+, but he's got limited defensive value and he's DHing about 60% of the time. Even Bryce Harper's 2015 (197 wRC+ and 9.5 WAR) is gonna wind up miles ahead of Alvarez.

Fan of a last-place team

2:47

Will the struggles of Tatis, Acuña, and even Trout dampen enthusiasm of front offices to clear out their farm systems for Soto and potentially offer him a long-term, $500 million-plus extension?

Jay Jaffe

2:48

Did the struggles of Pujols and Cabrera dampen enthusiasm for Trout, Betts, Lindor, Tatis, etc?

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat