JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/29/22

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Jay Jaffe

2:49

It's a limited number of teams that are willing to sign players to big deals like that, but history has shown that there are always some out there

Dude

2:51

Would the Orioles consider offering up Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson for either Soto or Ohtani? Way to make a big splash and say, "We have arrrived?"

Jay Jaffe

2:53

it's not going to happen for Soto since there's a lot of animosity between the two Beltway teams; they haven't made a trade since the Expos moved to Washington. For Ohtani the pair is probably a bit much given just the one remaining year of control after this. I don't see the current regime in Baltimore as being aggressive enough to try it either.

Quan

2:54

any plans to add fielding stats to the Splits Leaderboard

Jay Jaffe

2:54

doubt it. If even one full season of fielding data is noisy, then a month or half a season is a waste of space

45 blows billygoats

2:54

What are the possible landing spots for Montas?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

Every team looking for starting pitchers, which is every contender.

2:55

i'm not trying to be snarky here, i literally think the list in double digits and gaming out the scenarios in this context is probably not a good use of my time.

KCbbq

2:56

Would the Orioles seriously consider trading Mullins to the Astros for SP help such as Urquidy?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

If they were going to trade Mullins (33rd on our series list and under control through 2025) they would have to do better than Urquidy as the return, more like Framber Valdez (28th on our list) would be appropriate.

Mike

2:58

Doesn't it feel like Gallo, away from the constant expectations/pressure in NY, would do well in Milwaukee or other locations? Or is that just wishful thinking? He always K'd a lot, but it just seems every at bat (every pitch) is under a microscope now.

Jay Jaffe

3:02

I sure hope he can do better elsewhere because it's been a sad story watching him here in NY (i have this open and am looking forward to reading it https://theathletic.com/3460126/2022/07/29/joey-gallo-yankees-expectat...). I don't know that the Brewers would be a great spot for him as they've had a hard time straightening out hitters who have gone south. I think his approach needs a significant overhaul and that probably takes an offseason of work

brad penny for your thoughts

3:02

at the end of 1994's The Scout, brendan fraser's character steve nebraska, pitches a perfect game against Stl striking out 27 batters on 81 consecutive strikes (he also hit 2 homeruns). would that instantly make someone a HOF'er?

Jay Jaffe

3:03

No. Not only would he not yet be qualified based on the 10-year requirement but the voting rules expressly say, "No automatic elections based on performances such as a batting average of .400 or more for one (1) year, pitching a perfect game or similar outstanding achievement shall be permitted."

45 blows billygoats

3:04

Do you see the Giants as buyers or sellers?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

Sellers. This isn't their year; they went a bridge too far with the Belt-Crawford-Longoria core and none of them has stayed healthy enough

Dan

3:05

If a team had a pitcher with a short term injury that they wanted to trade could they have him miss a start for "personal reasons" rather than admit they needed preventative rest. Or would this 100% become known.

Jay Jaffe

3:06

I can't imagine a team trading for pitching without requesting to look at a pitcher's medical files first. And if it did get out there that a team was hiding something, they would probably find it harder to deal going forweard

Juan Soto

3:11

Is it true I’m a tad overrated ? Not a long career body of work . WAR padded by BB and OBP. Limited highlights (one huge double ) in post season run (hello Howie Kendrick ) . Why the hype ?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

https://stathead.com/tiny/V30Hm

3:13

Look at that list of highest OPS+ through age-23 seasons (1000 or more PA since 1900): Ted, Ty, Trout, Stan, Albert, Tatis, Soto, Mathews, Reggie, Mickey. That's Cooperstown territory. AND Soto already has a World Series ring with stellar performances both there and in the Division Series.

Mike

3:13

Does Tampa make a huge splash at the deadline or just stick this one out with the injuries piling up?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

They've got one of the deepest systems in the game and I suspect they'll do something substantial.

Ms Fan

3:15

Does Kelenic, Brash, Marte, Stoudt get me Drury and Castillo

Jay Jaffe

3:15

I doubt Kelenic has much value right now since he has yet to sustain any major league success. But hey, play around with this https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

James

3:18

I meant best non-Bonds offensive season. Obviously being a DH counts off a lot in WAR

Jay Jaffe

3:19

Alvarez is having a great year still ~300 PA short of where Harper (197 wRC+) and Cabrera (193 wRC+ in 2013) wound up. If he doesn't regress over the next 2 months we'll be talking a lot about it.

Pete

3:20

What kind of return could Syndergaard get? 45FV prospect seem reasonable?

Jay Jaffe

3:21

45 seems high given his current level of performance and lack of bats missed. You can see the grades of the players traded last summer here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-20.... My guess is something more 40ish.

WinTwins0410

3:22

Jay, how would you compare the speeches given at the induction weekend vs. speeches in past years? I watched the speeches and was very impressed -- the speeches in particular by Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat and Big Papi all struck me as especially good, as well as the one from Gil Hodges' daughter. Your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

It was a very good and pretty tight set of speeches. All the ones you listed were great, but one that really sticks with me is the one Dave Winfield gave on behalf of Bud Fowler, a history lesson on the obstacles the man faced. Impressed the hell out of me. The Oliva one was a reminder of the joy we might have gotten from some of the other deceased players had they lived.

Owen

3:24

Is Arte Moreno the worst owner in baseball?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

At least he spends money? I'd still rather watch a team owned by him than the ones owned by Castellini and Nutting.

Guest

3:24

Any chance the Cubs get a top 100 prospect in return for one of their trade pieces during the next week?

Jay Jaffe

3:25

I would think so. Conteras is one of the top rental bats out there AND he plays a premium positio, and Happ has another year of control after this one.

Bardo Bill

3:25

You think the Red Sox front office is (should be?) on the hot seat because they've been eviscerated by injuries this season? I don't follow the logic.

Jay Jaffe

3:29

I going into the season with JBJ in a prominent role should have tipped us off that their plans were pretty half-baked. That and the weakness of their first base plan.

Phil

3:29

I am catching up on this chat late so you addressed this a while ago, but: I would he shocked if Bloom were at risk. My impression was that he had an understanding with Henry that he wouldn't be able to truly get his plan started until most of the Dombrowski contracts were up (which is this winter except for Sale).

Jay Jaffe

3:33

Maybe that's true, but I haven't been impressed with the job this regime has done. If I'm an AL East competitor I'm pretty happy to watch it remain in place knowing that they're unlikely to keep the Bogaerts/Devers pair and that their rotation looks so shaky

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