You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/5/18
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
He's got the walk rate and OBP up into moderately acceptable territory, and the O-Zone% has come down, to the point that he's no longer a sub-replacement level player. But if he can't restore the power while maintaining that, I'm not sure he's much more than a placeholder.
Not JMAC
12:58
Hello JAY. Concerning Jose Ramirez BABIP is currently sitting at .276 should we expect a increase in production over the next month? Building on the success he has already had this season
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
He's hitting the ball pretty hard (avg ex velo 89.7) and his wOBA and xwOBA are very close (.419 and .413) already. He's got the speed to outproduce a lower wOBA, so there's maybe a bit of headroom, but I wouldn't bank upon it too heavily, and don't see much cause for concern.
Orange
1:01
Assuming the Mets trade DeGrom and Thor before the deadline, how many seasons are they saving from a full rebuild to being a contender?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
There's no way they trade both, because of the hit they'll take in terms of PR and at the gate, but maybe if they did they would cut a three-year turnaround to a two-year one. I honestly have no idea.
Alec
1:03
Nationals division odds of 43.5% are ________?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
based upon the assumptions of healthy players returning to form. Still seems very plausible.
Scott
1:03
There's talk in the NBA about eliminating the conferences because of the disparity between the two. Have you heard any similar discussions about the leagues in MLB?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
Not in the context of disparity so much as the long-term thinking when it comes to expanding to 32 teams and trying to get a bit more geographic uniformity without being constrained by historical league ties. Some of the ideas being thrown around, such as what Jayson Stark wrote about at the Athletic recently (https://theathletic.com/390737/2018/06/13/stark-how-mlb-expansion-coul...) and what Tracy Ringolsby (Baseball America) and I (while still at SI.com, https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/19/major-league-baseball-expansion-prop...) wrote about last fall are probably too radical for the near future.

I can't believe it was October when I wrote about that. THought it was January or so. Time flies.
Brett
1:06
How will Gleyber’s DL stint impact that Yankees moving in to the ASB?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
They have a ton of infield depth — Drury, Walker, Torreyes, Wade — so if it's a short-term thing it shouldn't matter much. And I haven't heard anybody indicate it's not a short-term thing, at least not yet.
Johnny Coconuts
1:08
Since April, J.A. Happ's monthly K-rate and GB rate have gradually declined. How do you think this will affect his trade value?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
He'll still be one of the best options in a weak slate of them. He's not going to bring back the next Gleyber Torres, but that doesn't mean the Blue Jays shouldn't trade him.
Brett
1:09
Can we go seeding by records in each league to fix playoff formatting/wild card troubles?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
That was essentially what was done in the single-wild card era. The consensus within the game was that it rewarded the non-division winner too much. So here we are.
Will
1:10
When Lindor was a minor leaguer I thought his floor was Vizquel (which is really high praise, but that type of player) and his ceiling was a Roberto Alomar type... high average, doubles power, great defense. With this power, could he be even better than Alomar? Long way to go of course, but he's blown past his projections.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
I think the power and the ability to play shortstop instead of second base give him a higher ceiling than Alomar.
1:21
- a brief break while I iron out some editorial issues on today's Fowler piece. Back soon -
Da Bum
1:22
Any signs of a Dozier rebound? Been a bad first half.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
see above-linked Twins piece. I expect some positive regression but maybe he's just no longer elite.
Mach-ado About Nothing
1:23
What are the 2-3 teams you see Machado with after the deadline? Is there a front-runner in your mind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
I've said the Cubs and Indians in various contexts before. At times it's sounded like the Phillies could be in the mix too. I don't really see the Dodgers tearing up their farm system to get him despite rumors
Slapshot
1:25
Do you consider the version of Javy Baez that's played so far this season to be peak Baez?  Or more of a sign that he's finally put all his immense talents together and this is his real breakout season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
The guy is swinging at 48% of pitches outside the zone! And walking 3.7% of the time! He's a hell of an entertaining player but I still don't think he's a finished product.
Tyler
1:26
What is a reasonable return for Mike Moustakas?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
a couple of low-level prospects who haven't broken into anybody's top 100
tyler
1:27
I should have phrased that differently, you said that Evans was a border line HOF.  You know about Fwar and modern metrics.  Evans also had more total bases then any player in the 80's that is no small feat.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Dwight Evans was an excellent player who might have been more widely hailed in a different era. As it was, his best offensive and defensive years didn't really coincide so he only dented the bWAR top 10 twice, and I have him below the JAWS standard in RF. There are a whole lot of RF worthy of further consideration, including Boston predecessor Reggie Smith.
1:31
Folks, there are a lot of good questions in the queue but I have to pull away for some editorial confabulation. Thanks for stopping by this week!
Connecting…