JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/8/22

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/8/22

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Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Friday chats. Apologies that it's been awhile — travel and holidays have gotten in the way.

A bit of housekeeping: today I've got a piece on Shohei Ohtani's improvement as a pitcher https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ohtani-the-pitcher-has-overtaken-ohtani-th...

2:03

Yesterday I looked at what's gone wrong for the Giants https://blogs.fangraphs.com/giant-steps-backwards-for-last-years-107-g.... Earlier in the week I looked at the anticipated returns of the Red Sox's Chris Sale (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-a-rough-stretch-approaching-red-sox-l...) and the Mets' Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-slumping-mets-help-on-the-horizon-in-s...) as well as the disarray both rotations had been in due to injuries.

2:04

Also wanted to share this obituary of Dodgers superscout Mike Brito, who passed away yesterday at 87. Ubiquitous around Dodger Stadium with his radar gun and his Panama hat, he signed 32 future major leaguers including Fernando Valenzuela, Julio Urías, and Yasiel Puig https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/obituary-mike-brito-legendary-...

Took this picture of Mike Brito last year. He loved his ⁦@Dodgers⁩ World Series rings and took great pride in wearing them. Lock them in a safety box? Not for Mike Brito! Loved that he was so proud. RIP to a true baseball ⚾️ man and such a calm, friendly person.

That's some serious bling

And now, on with the show

Jacob

2:04

Is there any precedent for what's going on with Eduardo Rodriguez and the Tigers right now? I can't think of any other instances in modern baseball where a player asked to be put on the restricted list and then went radio silent

Jay Jaffe

2:07

Nothing that A couple years ago Ben Zobrist left the Cubs in the midst of a divorce (marital issues are reportedly at the heart of Rodriguez's absence), but in that case there was no language barrier or international factor involved. I'm surprised that the Tigers can't reach Rodriguez through his agent (Mato Sports Management, according to Baseball Reference) but, uh, that isn't the most competent front office so who knows what's really going on?

Dan McGraw

2:07

Does Aaron Judge have a pathway to the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

2:09

The talent is certainly there. He's in the midst of his fifth season that *should* wind up to be worth well north of 5 WAR, but he'll have to be very productive into his late 30s, and find a way to stay on the field.

Ken Griffey Sr

2:10

What’s the deal with Yelich this year?

Jay Jaffe

2:11

.251/.346/.384, 107 wRC+. His second straight year of a .130-ish ISO. Better batted ball stats than last year (.460 xSLG) but I have to wonder if his back issues have just sapped his power permanently.

Big Joe Davis

2:12

Hi Jay, how do you feel about the news the Alber Pujols and Miguel Cabrera will be at the All-Star game even though they are both nowhere near that level of player anymore?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

Seems great. I can't get worked up about it when they're not costing anybody a roster spot and are each likely to get 1 PA at most.

Dan McGraw

2:12

Does Evan Longoria have a shot at the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

Probably not, if he does wind up retiring at the end of this season, which he's said to be considering (see my Giants article above). He wouldn't make it to 2,000 hits (he has 1,850) and he's not there on any of the JAWS categories:

Third Base (18th):
57.6career WAR |41.97yr-peak WAR |49.8JAWS |5.0WAR/162
Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
68.4 career WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

Beltré, Rolen, Dick Allen Graig Nettles, and Ken Boyer all have much, much stronger cases.

Pat

2:17

What do you think of Tinker-Evers-Chance as far as the HOF? I vacillate between "they weren't that good" & "they were the 3 best position players on a team with a historic run of success & it was a different game back then, so you can't just look at the #'s".

Jay Jaffe

2:19

I'm more in the latter camp but it's a mix. On the one hand, players from the early 20th century should have a wider separation from the pack because the quality of play was so much lower, but on the other, the Cubs dominated the NL for a significant stretch in those days. Tinker was the best of them by JAWS, and he's merely 26th at the position.

Justin

2:20

Is Andy Pages shaping up to be a Joc Pederson/Kyle Schwarber/Rhys Hoskins type who hits .240 with 30 hrs? Or is Pages expected to have a better hit tool?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

I'm not the prospect guy but Eric's write-up of him intrigues me (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-51-prospects-2022/). Definitely seems like he's got the power and contact issues to fit in that camp but he also has more defensive ability. "His speed under way and his defensive instincts give him a chance to stay in center field, which would obviously give Pages a little more margin for error as a hitter. If he stays in center, he has a star-level ceiling. If not, then he has a whiff-prone, traditional right field profile driven by obvious impact power."

Harmon Ripkowski

2:22

There's been a lot of chatter on whether Giancarlo Stanton can reach 500 or even 600 HR. What about Reggie's 2597 strikeouts?

Jay Jaffe

2:23

Doubt it. Look at it this way: he's about 74% of the way to 500 homers (has 368) but only 63% of the way to 2,597 strikeouts (he has 1,634). Even given the likelihood of decline I can't see him making up the ground between those two percentages.

Stephen

2:23

I went to a couple of minor league games in June and was a big fan of the pitch clock. What are the chances it actually makes it to MLB?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

I believe it's when, not if, and probably in 2024 if not next year.

Sodo Mojo

2:26

With the Mariners reach .500 and now relevant in the Wild Card picture what should they do before the dead line to improve their chances?

Jay Jaffe

2:29

They've gotten a 68 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR from second base (mainly Adam Frazier), which is Replacement Level Killers territory. And they need more pitching, just like everybody else.

Phil

2:29

Is it my imagination, or is there a level of psychological or emotional analysis of Manfred going on that one never saw with Selig? I certainly recall Selig being criticized for decisions he made or didn't make, but I don't remember his personality being so thoroughly dissected. Is this right, and if so, does it say more about Manfred or the state of baseball media/internet/fandom?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

Selig's tenure largely preceded the age of Twitter, so I think there was less armchair psychology, but it's not like he wasn't a worthy target of a billion angry blog posts for the ways he messed with the game. Collusion, contraction, PEDs... maybe it was less personal but I do think it had its share.

Sabey Sabes

2:32

How long does Ohtani have to maintain this level of performance to make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

2:34

Ohtani is five years into his major league career. If he's still good enough to do both at a star level five years from now he'd definitely get my vote, and if he's even good enough to merit doing both of those at any kind of level of competence he'd probably get it. This is a level of sustained, combined performance unseen in MLB.

(tweaked the wording of that last sentence)

Guest

2:35

How many innings more will Strider get this year? Is the rule like 30 more than the previous high?

Jay Jaffe

2:37

That's been a rule of thumb, and it would get Strider to about 125-130 (60-65 more from this point). My guess is that the Braves will be cautious, get him to about that level and then move him to the bullpen because obviously he's got the weapons to do late-inning work.

Harmon Ripkowski

2:37

The Baltimore Orioles have the 8th most wins in the AL. Didn't see that one...

Jay Jaffe

2:37

As Dan Szymborski wrote the other day, they're not good but they're interesting https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-orioles-arent-good-but-they-are-intere...

Bobbo

2:37

Do you expect the Giants to be buyers, sellers, or both at the trade deadline this year? What % chance that they will move Rodon versus % chance they will trade for Willson Contreras?

Jay Jaffe

2:40

I think it's much more likely that they're buyers than sellers, barring a continued slide this month. They've underperformed relative to their projections and their peripherals and I expect them to rebound from where they're atnow.

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:41

Trying to make a point via hyperbole on this one re the MVP - If the Angels and Yankees swapped Judge for Ohtani straight up, the Angels are a worse team and the Yankees are at least as good if not better, right?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

interesting thought experiment but I'm not sure this one works as well as you suggest. The Yankees are for the moment very well situated in starting pitching but their outfield depth has been stretched to the point that Judge has played more innings in center field than in right. Trading Judge for Ohtani straight up doesn't solve that; it's not like you're going to play Ohtani or Giancarlo Stanton in center. You'd need another trade (say, Taillon or Montgomery for an outfielder) to make it work.

EVs

2:45

"That isn't the most competent front office." Kevin Goldstein begs to differ. He says their reputation within other orgs is very sound.

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