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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! It's a hot and sticky day here in Brooklyn, where I discovered the yesterday that the built-in AC in my office does not in fact work and thus requires a complicated solution to address. So you'll excuse me if I conserve energy by typing less...
2:03
I did a piece on Red Sox catcher Connor Wong's breakout yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/connor-wong-is-breaking-out-in-boston/. Before that, most of what you heard from me was tributes to dead Hall of Famers, Orlando Cepeda after I got back from my annual Cape Cod trip (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-orlando-cepeda-1937-2024-who-m...) and Willie Mays while I was up there (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/saying-goodbye-to-the-say-hey-kid-willie-m...)
On with the show...
Joe
2:03
Does heat adversely affect hitters or pitchers more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
Probably worse for pitchers. Batted balls carry further in warmer weather and the higher heat causes greater fatigue.
Guest
2:04
it's my birthday today. can you give me a reason to be optimistic about Christopher Morel?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Happy birthday! Uh... As i discovered while writing about Wong, Morel has one of this year's largest reductions in strikeout rate. His quality of contact is better than his .199/.304/.369 slash line suggests, though I imagine that his 48.3% pull rate is distorting that a bit.
Stephen
2:06
Obviously the Yankees are not a true talent 25% winning pct team (5-15 in their last 20 games), but they clearly weren't the team that was on a 110 win pace either. Given that, how much should they count on Volpe, Verdugo, Gleyber getting back to a 95-105 wRC+ lines to fix the lineup woes or should they be aggressive in trying to find offensive upgrades?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
Well, Volpe and Verdugo are both in that wRC+ range (95 for the former, 98 for the latter) and both contributing to what measures up as the majors' best defense in my annual amalgamation of the various metrics, which is coming tomorrow. Volpe has produced 2.6 WAR, and while his production isn't the shape of Derek Jeter's, it takes a real pissbaby of a Yankees fan to believe that he's one of the team's problems (I'm not accusing you of that, this is directed at the social media whiners).

Torres, on the other hand, has stuck on both sides of the ball, and it's probably past time to wait for him to turn it around. The Yankees need bats at several positions and aside from Volpe, Judge, Soto, the catchers, and Ben Rice (who's been a pleasant surprise thus far), everything should be on the table.
Pokey Reese
2:12
Curious what you long-term prediction for Oneil Cruz is?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
I wrote about him a month ago (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/oneil-cruz-has-shaken-off-the-rust/). I think he's done a good job of bouncing back from a lost season, and while we'd all like to see him post a higher OBP and better metrics at SS, I think he's doing fine now. I think eventually he's probably a corner outfielder, an Adolis Garcia with more elite bat speed.
Bags!
2:15
Reading your thoughts on Cepeda sent me to the JAWS leaderboard for 1B —  I was struck by Bagwell being basically the best first basemen between Gehrig/Foxx and Pujols, a long stretch! I knew Bagwell was a great player — but was maybe re-impressed.  I wonder if perceptions of his place in history are colored by his career being immediately overshadowed by Pujols? I think it was for me anyway…
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I made that point during Bagwell's candidacy, but it's been seven years since he was elected, so it probably needs to be repeated. Yes, I think he was overshadowed by Pujols and both players' strong defense was underrated. Without the Astroome and the shoulder injury I think Bagwell would have gotten to 500 homers and been remembered more vividly.
JK
2:18
Is the Vientos break out real (153 WRc+), and does that make Baty expendable at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I wouldn't expect Vientos to maintain quite that high a level of productivity but his xBA and xSLG still support production that's well above average. I don't think that's a good excuse to trade Baty while his stock is down. This was supposed to be a retooling year for the Mets, and so punting on a guy who was a top-25 prospect just a year ago as a means of incrementally improving their wild card chances is <punches numbers into a calculator> stupid and a half. If the Mets don't re-sign Pete Alonso, they may well want to roll with Baty at third and Vientos at first next year.
Talfred
2:22
Not a question, just an observation. Since turning 30 on April 26, 2022, Aaron Judge has 21.9 fWAR and a 200 wRC+ in 353 games played (slightly less than 2 full seasons).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
and he's hitting .356/.467/.805 (246 wRC+) with 29 homers in 286 PA since I wrote about his slump on April 24. Mind-blowing.
gavin lux
2:23
what's going on with him? Is it time for the dodgers to move on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Missing a year due to injuries can be such a blow. I'm afraid it's probably time for the Dodgers to move on from Lux, and between the return of Miguel Vargas from AAA, the reanimation of Chris Taylor, and the eventual injury returns of Muncy and Betts, I don't expect to see much of him. Wouldn't surprise me if he's dealt at the deadline; a change of scenery would do him good.
Kelly
2:27
Who is the best current non closer to perhaps get the job due to a closer getting traded?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
My guess is the Rays' Jason Adams assuming Pete Fairbanks is traded.
2:28
This is a great resource to try to figure out the answer yourself, by the way https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/closer-depth-chart
NICKO
2:28
Chances Kenny Lofton gets in the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
Not zero, but very low. So far only one player who fell victim to the 5% rule in his first year of eligibility has ever made it (Ted Simmons) and he had a champion within the Era Committee ballot creation process, which Lofton doesn't have. Also, I don't think the 2022 report alleging Lofton "expos[ed] a female employee to explicit pictures of his body that he sent to women on Instagram" does him any favors with regards to getting on the ballot. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus...
Mariners Fan
2:32
Patience or panic over Julio Rodriguez's sub-par season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Those numbers are ugly enough that I'm concerned. yes, his .275 xBA and .448 xSLG suggest he's getting a bit of a raw deal on his contact but I suspect he's having issues regarding mechanics that need ironing out.
Guest
2:38
Trout, Harper, Machado, Judge, Soto, Acuna...who would you bet on finishing with 500 HR
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
The length of the first four players' contracts more or less guarantees they'll get shots at 500 homers somewhere even if their overall play sinks to replacement level. I think all of those guys are capable of reaching the milestone; the one that stands out to me as the least likely is Acuña given that he's now suffered two season-ending injuries and has the furthest to go.
Maddoning
2:40
Should the Cubs consider dealing Nico Hoerner?  They have several prospects coming up at 2B, and there are 2B-neady teams (NYY, SEA).  What kind of value do you think Nico has?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I don't think he's going to bring a huge return, and I'm pretty skeptical about their prospects (their only 2B above a 35 FV is in High-A now) but yes, Hoerner is probably worth dealing given that there will be a market for him.
carl
2:44
does it feel like elly de la cruz's season has completely fallen under the radar? He's on pace for more than 6 fwar, projections have him landing just below 6 fwar, he's 22 and a prior top tier prospect. 6th this year in fwar so far!! seems like he's taken a pretty big leap
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
He has! The guy is a human highlight film and unlike last year, he's been valuable AND vastly entertaining. I know we've got something EDLC-flavored in the pipeline, and I'd like to write about him down the road but I'm pretty close to scheduled out for July, so we'll see what transpires.
Yankee candle store
2:46
What are the odds Gleyber T is traded?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
Increasing
2:47
The lineup needs a shakeup AND Torres might benefit from a change of scenery.
Guest
2:48
Do you think the required number of innings to qualify for the ERA title (and for the leaderboards for other rate stats) should be reduced to account for the changing nature of pitcher usage?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Eh, I'm just not sure it's that big a deal. I'd prefer the ERA leaders to be guys who post up with regularity as opposed to those who just sneak past the innings threshold.
Guest
2:50
Thoughts on ROY voting?  Seems like a pretty wide open field this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
Yeah, should be pretty interesting. I think the NL probably goes to one of the Japanese pitchers, and I'd lean Shota Imanaga right now based on that introductory run. The AL — wow, it's not going to be any of the guys so many of us expected (Holliday, Carter, Langford). If I had a ballot now I'd probably vote Luis Gil
Joe
2:53
Any chance Gunnar can beat out Judge for MVP, barring a Judge injury?
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