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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Sure, especially if the Orioles beat out the Yankees in the AL East. Contrary to what so many think, there doesn't seem to be a pro-Yankee bias in the MVP or Cy Young voting given how few have won the award lately; Judge's MVP was the first since A-Rod in 2007, and before A-Rod in 2005 you have to go back to Don Mattingly in 1985. Cole's Cy Young was the first since Roger Clemens in 2001, and before him you have to go back to Ron Guidry in 1978.
Gary
2:56
The D-Backs showed signs this past week of the team that went to the World Series. With that starting staff in a short series it would appear they could make another run at it Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
The same factors that helped get an 84-win Diamondbacks team to the World Series are more likely to prevent what looks like it might be another 84-win team (they're projected for 82 wins right now via Playoff Odds, with a 31.4% chance of making it) from doing so. It's incredibly hard to win three postseason series en route to a pennant, all the moreso if you're one of a handful of teams who need to battle for the third WC spot.
Jason N
2:59
Jackson Merrill could put up a surprising 5 WAR season as a 21 year old.  Does this put him on the radar as a future HoF candidate based on strong performance and making the majors at a really young age?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Pretty much any 21-year-old with a 5-WAR season has put himself on the radar due to that combination of age and performance — especially at a premium defensive position — but obviously it takes a lot more than that to get to Cooperstown.
SomeGuy
3:00
How much would it take to pry Zach Eflin from the Rays? They're not necessarily OUT-out, but they don't look likely to climb back into serious contention this year either.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
He's got one more year of club control, at an $18 million salary, so he's movable, but i suspect the Rays will make it hurt.
I Know My Numbers Real Good
3:06
353 games is "less than 2 full seasons"??
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
People get so picky about typos in a forum that doesn't allow for correction, but let me do some math for you: 21.9 WAR in 353 games is 10.1 per 162 games. If that doesn't impress you, you're in the wrong chat, move along.
Rob
3:08
Do you think Garrett Crochet is likely to get traded in the next couple of weeks and Luis Robert Jr is more likely to be traded in the off-season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I suspect both get dealt at the deadline. The White Sox are terrible, and you might as well burn it all down and start over.
Juice
3:12
Has anyone ever examined how Altuve generates so much power?  With all the statcast data now, Altuve performs pretty poorly by those metrics but he consistently outperforms his xSLG for example pretty meaningfully.  If you looked at his statcast page without knowing it was Altuve you would not think he is an all star caliber player.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
Cynical answers aside, there's not much in Altuve's Statcast numbers to explain why he's so potent. Tthe Crawford Boxes and more generally Minute Maid Park are part of the equation, as is his propensity for homers into the left field corner wherever he's playing. One that maybe flies below the radar is his sweet spot percentage; he's below the 20th percentile in EV and hard-hit rates, 42nd pecentile in barrel rate but 83rd in sweet spot; that said, his showing in that category has fluctuated widely in recent years.
Guest
3:17
Any ideas what happened to Corbin Carroll this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I suspect that his ongoing right shoulder issues are part of the problem. it's getting tougher to ignore, too. He's now hit .239/.321/.375 (95 wRC+) in 684 PA over the past calendar year.
Jose Miranda
3:19
My recent 12-hits-in-12-ABs streak is more impressive because of the era I play in, right? How much of this accomplishment is luck and how much is underlying skill?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
Sure, it's more impressive in a league that's batting .242 than .253 (when Walt Dropo collected 12 straight in 1952) or .281 (when racist POS Pinky Higgins did so in 1938). There's definitely some luck involved, as he was hitting the ball hard but not Judge-level hard during that run; you'd figure he'd make some outs in there.
Guest
3:23
we knew 20/20 per 106 games wasn't going to happen for Nolan Jones again, but was 20/20 per 150 really too much to ask?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
Good gravy what happened to that guy? .187/.291/.303 (55 wRC+) in 46 games? Is he missing a limb?
Doc
3:24
If Lofton's chances are low, what do you make of Johan's, who also unbelievably fell off on Ballot #1?  Setting aside Schilling, is Johan the SP with the best chance of getting in off a Committee Ballot?  (Or is it Stieb, Cone, or Orel?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Similarly low. especially due to the lack of counting stats. As I said a few months ago in reference to another 2-time winner who flamed out with less-than-remarkable career stats, the crux of the problem with regards to HOF pitching standards is that if we decide runs like Kluber's or Santanas are worthy, then there are literally dozens of pitchers with similarly impressive runs, and logistically I don't think there's a way to honor an equitable share of them.
Scott K
3:26
Best guess for a pitcher under 30 who could make the Hall? Not too many guys under 30 with high WAR totals banked right now.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
I'd start with Yamamoto, who's still just 25.
And i'm not sure who else i'd tab. It's grim right now.
3:30
Maybe George Kirby? I mean, this is all dart-throwing and based more on potential than accomplishment, though I do like what he's done so far.
lemons are a fungible citrus
3:30
How close was Jose Abreu to the HOF two years ago?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
He was unlikely to make it given his late start. It's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the International Baseball Hall of Fame, and so his Serie Nacional accomplishments weren't/aren't supposed to be under consideration. Now, we can debate whether that's the right call if we're comparing him to Negro Leagues players who didn't have the opportunity to play in the segregated AL and NL, as a slugger born in Cuba had no chance to play in those leagues without risking his life to defect.
3:34
Ok folks, I'm in need of a hydration break and I'm headed to Citi Field tonight with a friend. Thanks so much for stopping by, and look for my two-part defensive series starting tomorrow, with the Replacement Level Killers series kicking off on Friday as well.
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