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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon and welcome to today's post-deadline chat with what's left of my brain after writing, filing and/or publishing 8,600 words in the last 27 hours...
12:02
I've got to quickly buy some tickets to tomorrow's Tarantino showing and I've got a radio spot in the middle of this chat so the going might be slow at first.
stever20
12:02
Do you think the Dodgers can win the World Series with the back end of the bullpen they currently have?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
To quote the late, great Graham Chapman in the "Flying Sheep" sketch, "A fair question and one that in recent weeks has been much on my mind" https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2v9uxz
12:05
The Dodgers' failure to get a late-inning arm made my list of five least-favorite moves and non-moves. I thought the price the Pirates were reportedly asking for Vazquez — two of the top 12 prospects in the game (per our Board, in May, Lux, and Ruiz) was too high but there had to be some middle ground between that and the sinkerballing lefty they got from the Rays, who's nice but...
12:07
If Jansen recovers from, if Kelly keeps up what he's been doing since June started, if Maeda dominates the way he did in late 2017, if Baez can recover form, if some of Ferguson, Stripling, and Floro can still help, and if Urias keeps doing what he's been doing, then yes, I think the bullpen can hold together. Obviously, that is one big basket of ifs
Bend it like Mandowescence
12:08
Let's start with a lob ... best new IPA you've enjoyed this summer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
The quality of beers in my immediate vicinity — delis and groceries — has taken a big step up recently thanks to a new (?) distributor handling those stores and wow, I am the better for it. Not all first-time but Sloop Juice Bomb and Radiant Pig Own the Night have been great additions to my rotation. Some friends threw a party recently and laid a can of Alchemist Focal Banger on me. In Cooperstown I had a lovely pale ale called Hopstate NY. More good ones than I can count.
Jason
12:10
what is your assessment of the brewers trade haul? and do you think Trent Grisham is legit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
I am reasonably optimistic that Pomeranz can help in the short term and Black in the long term (see my writeup here http://blogs.fangraphs.com/brewers-bolster-bullpen-with-pomeranz-and-b...) but giving up Dubon felt like a lot. I guess Faria can help but I think they'll miss Aguilar. Don't know enough about Grisham to have my own opinion but sure, I'll take a flier on a guy batting .381/.471/.776  in Triple-A, even in the year of the silly ball.
Kelvin
12:14
Of the contenders who largely stood pat, which do you think is most screwed by not making an upgrade?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
The Yankees. There was a lot of decent starting pitching to be had, even if neither Greinke nor Bumgarner was likely to waive their no-trades to come to New York. Even a back-end guy could have helped them, and the decision not to sign Keuchel looks even worse in retrospect than it did at the time given the month their rotation just had.
Compare what they did to the Astros adding Greinke plus Sanchez and Biagini, and I don't see much chance that the Yankees can reach the World Series
JustCurious
12:17
Which teams fans should be most upset about how the deadline played out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Nationals. All covered in my forthcoming piece
Yankee Farm
12:18
Do you think possibly part of the Yankees' deadline woes were simply that outside Deivi Garcia (who's been getting knocked around at triple a) their farm system is kind of sneakily bad?  Most of their top prospects are either injured, underperforming, or both.  Teams aren't going to trade assets for busted prospects right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
The farm system is down, but come on, Clint Frazier is sitting right there, and if they're committed to Aaron Hicks AND holding onto Frazier, then Estevan Florial is somebody you trade at a point like this.
Bend it like Mandowescence
12:20
RIP Graham Chapman. Brilliance.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
It's amazing how my perspective on the individuals in Monty Python — which I got into when I was 11, via a friend showing Holy Grail, then discovered Flying Circus on PBS about a year later — has changed over time. Eric Idle was generally my favorite as a kid and Terry Gilliam had an early impact on me via Time Bandits. I didn't fully appreciate the genius of Chapman until after he was gone. Likewise for Terry Jones. Those two guys were the glue in a lot of ways.
Tom C
12:22
Is the narrative of the Astros immediately being clear AL favorites a bit overblown? The Yankees pitching staff isn’t this bad and they’re going to continue to get healthier down the stretch
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
There are no guarantees with pitcher health, none whatsoever. Counting on so many things that are currently going wrong to right themselves is not a position i would defend.
Tom
12:24
No starting pitcher for the Cardinals. Can they win the NL Central with a rotation of Mikolas, Flaherty, Hudson, Wainwright, and I guess now Wacha?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Their lack of action flew below the radar a bit, but yeah, i think they needed rotation help, too. Hudson and Ponce de Leon aside, theirs has looked better in July, at least, but I think what the Cubs have done will separate them from the Brewers and Cardinals.
The 6ix
12:26
The Blue Jays threw in Sanchez and Biagini in a Cal Stevenson for Derek Fisher trade.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Yes, feels like they sold low on Sanchez and Biagini.
Mike
12:27
How do you think Trevor Bauer will perform in Cincinnati and will the Reds compete in 2020 for a playoff berth?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I think he's going to need to generate more groundballs than he has been — his rate has fallen from 49% to 39% since 2016 – but I do think the Reds are moving in the right direction. While I never thought I'd say this, they will really need a Joey Votto rebound to contend, though.
Bevor Trauer
12:32
The Bauer trade is fascinating--do you think the Indians made the right call swapping pitching for hitting, or was it too big of a risk to mess with a team in the playoff race?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I think it was the right call, particularly after Bauer's embarrassing stunt the other day. Bieber and Clevinger are at least as good, and I think they did a good job of balancing short and long-term needs for both pitching and hitting
12:34
ok, there will be a break for about 10 minutes as i go on http://nbcsports1060.com with Bob Kemp in Arizona.
12:47
OK , back.
Kristen
12:48
Surprised at the Rangers' lethargy at the deadline?  Had multiple interesting pieces on offer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
Not surprised. They control Minor for another year and even with Replacement Level Killer type work at like 4 positions (C, 1B, 2B, and RF)  have been .500ish. Solve a couple of those problems and maybe they're in the thick of things next year.
OK, my magnum opus on the deadline is live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/deadline-deals-and-non-deals-i-liked-and-d...
Mike
12:51
Who improved themselves most in the NL East?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
I liked the Braves' set of bullpen moves WAAAY more than the Nationals' ones (details in that link) and have come around to the Mets' addition of Stroman without trading Syndergaard and Wheeler.
Jon
12:52
Any thoughts as to why the price for Greene to the Nats was seemingly so much higher than for the Braves (at least per reports)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I hadn't seen that, which isn't to say that it wasn't true, but teams do differ in their evaluations of players, and some execs get along with others. There's a lot we don't know about all of this
Derek
12:54
Are the Astros the only AL team to come out of the deadline with significant net improvement? They seem about as close to unbeatable in the AL as a baseball team can get...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I think the Indians, Rays, Twins and A's all made significant improvements. Maybe not as sexy as adding Greinke, but still those teams addressed their problems pretty well.
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