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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/1/19

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Nick

12:56

Is the value of a comp pick worth more than whoever the Giants would get in a MadBum trade?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

Probably not, but Bumgarner has earned his right exert some control over where he plays, and he clearly wanted to stay in SF, with Bochy. My guess is that this is probably a prelude to re-signing him

12:58

The comp pick that he'll be attached to via a QO will at the very least give them an edge

Brendan

12:58

On a scale of 1-10, how do you rate the Indians mid-season moves?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

eh, I deal with numbers all day. The impulse to throw arbitrary one on a team's moves rather than acknowledging the complexities feels a bit lazy...

But OK, 12/10, would trade Bauer again.

Haddouken

1:01

Ryu has a 1.78 ERA since the beginning of 2018 over 218 innings. I've accepted that he is actually this good(maybe not 1.xx ERA good, but certainly top 15 SP good). If he continues this for the remainder of the season, what do you project he gets in free agency?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

off the top of my head, given his age and health track record, something like 3/60 plus a vesting option

Guest

1:03

Yea so what happens with Clint Frazier now ?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

i suspect he's up soon

khaaannn!!!

1:03

deGrom came up at 26, has a ROY and Cy Young, and has been consistently dominant. As the HOF adjusts it's opinion on starters, is there a chance he gets in?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

A late start is a very difficult thing to overcome, and he's already got a TJ on him, so i worry about his longevity. I'd put his odds pretty low right now unless he goes Scherzer and brings home two more Cys.

Derek

1:05

Does the Braves revamped bullpen make them a real contender?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Um, they're in first atop the NL East by 6.5 games. I'm not sure what about them isn't a real contender already.

I am the Walrus

1:05

Cubs system is way down and look how many moves they made.

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I liked the moves they made, particularly the Castellanos one given his ability to mash lefties. Adding Kemp could be good, too, given his positional flexibility and the upside he showed last year

JustCurious

1:07

Does Clint Frazier actually have much trade value? Awful defensively and a career 104 wRC+ that is mainly BABIP dependent. wRC+ in AAA this year was 86, etc. He looks more like a former top prospect who is well on his way to becoming a bust than a big trade headliner. Florial isn't a top 100 guy and has had a down year. Neither are huge pieces.

Jay Jaffe

1:08

The guy can clearly hit MLB pitching pretty well, and I think that he can do better defensively. Honestly, he might be a change of scenery guy given all the baggage of what's gone on in NY, which has contributed to his overlong stay in Scranton (he's been bypassed multiple times for promotion) and probably dinged his value. and yes, I get that Florial's stock isn't at a high point right now, but that's not to say there was nothing that could have been done with either

1:09

We weren't going to give up Kieboom for a reliever with a 3.8 FIP and 4.5 career ERA

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Unless you are a Nationals executive or paid member of their cheerleading squad, there is no "we"

stever20

1:10

so after seeing the single deadline in action, do you like/dislike it? Would you change anything with it?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

No, i don't like it. I think August waivers serve a purpose, not only to move big contracts and make small depth moves but also to reconsider competitive positions a few weeks later after the first big wave of moves has its impact. I think moving it to August 15 would be worse, particularly given the risk-averse groupthink that is overtaking front offices and the high valuation placed on club control years given the economics of the salary structure rules

1:13

The whole thing needs re-thinking. Until they address pre-free agency player compensation in the next CBA, I'd keep things the way they were.

Bend it like Mandowescence

1:13

I know there are a lot of hot takes on Stroman meeting the Mets and I thought your piece was quite judicious in explaining why the Mets would make their deal ... but lordy ... please try to offer some sort of sane explanation for what the Jays' FO might be thinking with these decisions?! Regardless of how folks feel about the Bauer and Greinke returns ... objectively they feel far more substantive (and even quantitative!) than what the Jays received for Stroman. (I am not going to try to argue that Stroman is as good as Bauer or Greinke ... but the return still feels very, very low.)

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Thanks. I wasn't wild about the Jays' take, as detailed in my piece above. They fired their best bullet prematurely — you can't tell me they wouldn't have gotten more than 2 x 45 FV guys or even 2 x 50 FV guys (if we're using MLB Pipeline's ratings) by waiting until at least Tuesday night.

James

1:15

Is Aaron Sanchez the Astros next Charlie Morton?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

I am not a gambling man but I would lay down $20 on that right now.

1:16

We the public have questions about health of severino, Kluber, Danny salazar... did the trade deadline reveal their teams' optimism in their near term health?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Maybe, or maybe those bluffs have been called. We shall see.

Nathan

1:16

The Dodgers seem pretty intent on keeping Keibert around, but how will this square with Will Smith's equally awesome potential? More likely that they'll trade one of them? Or shift them off catcher?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Before the season, it seemed like Smith was the expendable one, and even now, there's 54 prospects between their rankings on the Board (Ruiz 12, Smith 66). I think it's possible that they trade one for a major piece, but that likelihood has dropped. Smith is a guy whom Eric and/or Kiley have compared to Barnes, with multiposition flexibility, so that could be a route they go.

Lunar verLander

1:19

Do the Mets think they can compete for a playoff spot this year? That's the only reason I can think of for why they didn't move Wheeler.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

that's the inference, and even our odds have seen them jump from 4% to 19% during this 12-4 run. Their schedule the rest of the way is among the softer ones, and maybe they get healthier... Look, it's a permanently dysfunctional organization so long as the Wilpons own it, and a couple of good weeks doesn't change that, but selling low on Syndergaard and Diaz wasn't the way out of their current mess. Even if they fade this year, their rotation is well set up for next year.

John

1:21

was there something weird going on with Gyorko ? The cardinals kept ILing him and didn’t seem to want him on the ML roster at all

Jay Jaffe

1:22

He's had a bajillion injuries. From my Replacement Level Killers piece: he strained a calf during spring training, suffered a lower back strain in early June, then underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist in June, which will probably sideline him until September.

1:23

I'm not saying any team is free of shenanigans when it comes to the IL, but it's tough to call all of that phantom, which is what you're suggesting.

Mountie Votto

1:24

I’m still baffled by the price of Bauer relative to Stroman. Can you help me understand?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Leaving aside their respective personalities and the fact that the Jays timed the market poorly, we've seen Bauer challenge for a CY, he misses far more bats, and drone injuries aside, he's been healthy. He's got a 5.8 WAR season under his belt and the potential to get back there. Stroman has dealt with arm troubles, doesn't miss many bats, and has never topped 3.5 WAR.

John

1:26

Amir Garret’s frontal assault on pirates dugout - best fight ever?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

That was hilarious, and I'm glad nobody got hurt. Holy hell.

Jon

1:26

Why hasn't there been more criticism directed towards the Braves for assuming the whole Melancon contract and sending useful players to the Giants on top of it? Am I missing something?

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