JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/18

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Roman Numeral Three

12:53

What's the difference between Bernie Williams and Jim Rice other than one lasted one year on the ballot and the other is a HOFer? Does one extra all star caliber year really separate them that much?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

Aside from both petering out in their mid-30s, they were VERY different players. Williams was a switch-hitter, was much faster than Rice, and was a pretty good CF early in his career (the Yankees should have moved him to a corner earlier, speaking of the previous question about WAR and playing out of position). Rice was more powerful, though much of that was the product of Fenway Park.

I think the fact that Rice did one thing VERY well (hit dingers) whereas Williams' talents were more broad had a lot to do with the way the two players were perceived, Yet they're pretty close in both HOFM and JAWS, and the disparity between the two as far as their HOF fates go is striking.

TKDC

1:00

Gary Sheffield's case is hurt more by defense or steroid link?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Both, and also the easily-debunked tale about Sheffield making intentional errors.

I do find it interesting that Ton Verducci, who's pretty much a hardliner as far as the PED/HOF thing goes, has been very sympathetic regarding Sheffield's explanation that while training with Bonds, he didn't know what he was taking (https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/16/hall-fame-ballot-gary-sheffield-john...) and that when he found out (after severing their relationship), he was angry.

Haz

1:06

What's your feeling about longevity/remarkable consistency as a skill with regards to the Hall? e.g. Mark Buerhle's 15 straight seasons of 10 wins/200 IP or Bart potentially pitching until 50 and winding up with ~280 wins? Could be argued it's not all too different from, say Ralph Kiner's very short but spectacular peak.

Jay Jaffe

1:10

There's a reason why I use peak and career WAR in my Hall of Fame considerations, but there's a very big difference to me regarding the players you cited. Kiner surpasses the seven-year peak standard in LF (43.7 WAR to 41.6), where Buehrle (35.9) and Bartolo (35.6) are nowhere close to the standard among SP (50.1) — or even the mid-40s marks of some guys like Kevin Brown, Dave Stieb and Luis Tiant who I think have been overlooked.

Andruw

1:11

I faded at the end but my career and the fact that I am one of the best defensive CF of all time should be enough for the hall right?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Given what the advanced metrics say, yes. But historically, players who fade away in their early to mid-30s don't do well in HOF voting, and the Rule of 2,000 (hits) has come to serve as a proxy for too short of a career

Spencer

1:13

Mets fan here, how high were you on David Wright’s HOF chances during his prime (and/or before he got hurt)? Was he just a really good player? Or were we looking at something special before his body quit?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

I was never tremendously bullish on him at the time but Howard Megdal's tweet this morning suggests that may have been my oversight

Here's best way, imo, to see David Wright's HOF track. Through Age-30 season, he was eighth all-time in WAR for 3B.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Spencer

1:16

Also what player(s) HOF chances were you most optimistic on before injuries/ineffectiveness derailed their chances?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

I didn't go into it in today's epic piece on the 1998 Yankees — which is out now https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-1998-yankees-were-a-juggernaut-and... — but I was dead sure Chuck Knoblauch was headed for 3,000 hits until his throwing problems arose. That was well before my work on the HOF began, though.

A few come to mind, but I'm sure this is the tip of the iceberg: I guess time will tell as to whether I was right about Joe Mauer's HOF chances at the point in 2010 when he signed his mega-contract. I thought (hoped?) CC Sabathia would hold up better. And I feel less certain about Bryce Harper's chances today than I did a year ago.

thomas

1:20

Bader's WAR is above acuna. Just sayin

Jay Jaffe

1:22

He's got 29 more games played than Acuña too. Just sayin'.

brood550

1:22

What does Diaz need to do to win the AL Cy young from here on out?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

Beam Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer to an alternate dimension, because any one of them would be a more credible CY winner.

In an age where analytics can illustrate the limitations in valuing a guy who throws 60-80 innings at the same level of one who throws 180-200, I don't see a reliever winning again anytime soon.

Bin

1:25

What are your views on Kershaw, over the next 3-4 years? Is he in a slow, constant decline at this point - or can he remain dominant in his later years (ala Scherzer?)

Jay Jaffe

1:28

I'm worried about the velocity loss (from 93.1 in 2017 to 90.8 in 2018). He's still got the stuff to succeed at a high level but I'm skeptical that we're never going to see another 6-7 WAR season out of him.

Sam

1:28

How much does the latest Judge setback affect the Yanks playoff chances?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

it doesn't help it, but the Yankees have a whole lot else going wrong right now – Severino, Sabathia, Gray, Sanchez — that is also damaging their chances

Bryce's Hair

1:30

Wouldn't it make sense for the Nationals to (attempt to) trade Harper now? He would most likely get through waivers to someone in playoff contention, say someone like the Rockies. Wouldn't it be interesting throwing him in the middle of that playoff race? I would think they could receive at least as much value as a compensating pick would bring.

Jay Jaffe

1:32

it would certainly be interesting, but I suspect it will take Bryce/Boras going to Rizzo and explicitly asking for a trade, and I suspect that his struggles earlier this year weigh heavily enough on him that he's not going to do that out of concern for how such a move would be perceived

Sam

1:32

What's your opinion on the Acuna/Urena incident?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

This doesn't even deserve to be called horseshit. It's chickenshit.

The first pitch of the night to Ronald Acuña Jr.

Clearly intentional.

Sam

1:32

Is there any chance Colon gets inducted into the hall?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I love Bartolo but when they start handing out plaques to guys who failed PED tests, let me know and I'll put his odds above zero.

Frood

1:33

Is it too early to say JP Crawford's a bust?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

far too early, yes. We're talking about a 23-year-old with 199 major league PA and multiple injuries this year, not to mention the silliness of playing him out of position. I've never been terribly high on him but that's far too early to jump ship

Scott

1:36

JAWS doesn't like him much, but could Rick Porcello sneak up in the Hall voting if he stays healthy and effective? He's 30 and has a Cy Young and 130 wins.

Jay Jaffe

1:37

I don't see anybody getting into the Hall with a 4.00+ ERA anytime soon. his final numbers will pale next to the Bartolos and Buehrles of the world, and I just laid out why I don't think they're worthy.

Dave

1:37

Will Graig Nettles ever be elected to the HOF? I’ve always been a bit surprised by his lack of support.

Jay Jaffe

1:40

I'd definitely be in favor of it, but I'd also put Dick Allen, Scott Rolen and Ken Boyer ahead of him and that's just among 3B. The low bating average and lack of Gold Gloves (which were being won by Brooks Robinson and later Buddy Bell, also a decent candidate) doomed him in the eyes of the voters

1:40

Bader has less PA than Acuna. Not that it means much, but using Games doesn't seem to be a good measure since he has come in for a couple innings as a defensive replacement or PH. Has anyone ever won the ROY award because of a great defensive season. I doubt it.

Jay Jaffe

1:43

fair point, but I don't think there's much doubt that Acuña would have a higher WAR had he not missed a month due to injuries, and I'd always caution skepticism about outlying defensive metrics.

Ozzie Smith darn near won the 1978 ROY with an 84 wRC+, but he did steal 40 bases to go along with his already-good glove.

Eric

1:43

You said, "...and also the easily-debunked tale about Sheffield making intentional errors." Sheffield said in an interview that "If the official scorer gave me an error that I didn't think was an error, I'd say, 'OK, here's a real error,' and I'd throw the next ball into the stands on purpose. I did it all." How is that easily debunked? He said it!

Jay Jaffe

1:45

And Sheffield recanted the statement soon afterwards. Plenty of links in my HOF profile of him here:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/21/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-gary-s...

TKDC

1:46

If Bryce were put on waivers, would the Mets put in a claim just to block any team from getting him in exchange for prospects? The Nats are very unlikely to just let him go to the Mets, and this would keep the Nats from getting better longer term.

Jay Jaffe

1:48

The Wilpons get night terrors regarding Harper landing on their payroll. Of all the NL contenders, I can see the Rockies, who are in position to do so, making the first claim.

(not that) James

1:48

I never knew you had such a glorious mustache. Can I call you Jay Mustachffee from now on?

Jay Jaffe

1:48

Thanks! But no thanks.

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