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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Manager of the Year is basically a media-driven award, and so I think it comes down to fewer eyeballs on the Mariners, and fewer people discussing them, because they play on the West Coast, when much of the country has gotten its fill of baseball and gone to bed.
Dodger Fan
2:49
If you were the Dodgers GM who do you try and keep in the off-season, Kershaw, Scherzer, Seager, Taylor, Jansen? Sign Trea Turner to an extension?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
There's a lot of tough decisions here. IMO Taylor provides good bang for the buck and would be a priority because he won't break the bank. From an unsentimental standpoint, Scherzer might be a stronger bet for value over the next 2-3 years than Kershaw, but losing the latter would be a huge PR hit, and at this point I don't think he can realistically expect $30M + based on his injuries. I see Seager as worth keeping with an eye towards moving him to 3B once Justin Turner is done, and leave Trea Turner to be next year's problem.
Guest
2:53
re MVP: No Harper?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Eh, I like Harper more than most but he's tied for 9th in fWAR and four of the other 9 have even less playing time than he does.
Chris
2:54
Why haven't servais and dipoto been extended yet? Will the mariners really move on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I'd imagine that gets addressed this offseason. There's been just a wee bit of disarray at the upper level in that org this year.
Guest
2:55
Is Bauer going to pitch again this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I don't see how he possibly could, since Bauer has admitted to assaulting the woman while she was unconscious. If you're Manfred and you can't find grounds to suspend him for at least the remainder of the season, your policy ain't shit, and you should board a rocket into the sun.
Guest
2:58
Feels weird to say this about a website like Fangraphs, but I don't think Corbin Burnes' season is getting the attention it warrants, Jay.  He's on pace to be just the second pitcher in the past 70 years with a sub-1.65 FIP  (Pedro Martinez, 1999, is the other).  And even Pedro didn't lead all of baseball in whiff rate AND walk rate AND home run rate. It's insane what Burnes is doing!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
He's had a remarkable season, and we've covered him a couple of times, but you're right, he's probably worth another look.
ROGELIO
3:00
Turner over Adames for MVP? Trea has a 0.7 WAR advantage, but did most of his damage on an out of it team (+0.66 WPA), while Willy (+2.89 WPA) has fueled Milwaukee to the best record in MLB since his acquisition. That seems more valuable than 0.7 WAR to me.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
I'm not ruling Adames out, nor am I going to wrack my brain very hard about who's 5th vs. 6-10th, but IMO it's harder to make a case that a guy who to this point has about 32% of his playing time in the "wrong" league should be a top contender for MVP. Check back in September, and I might feel differently but right now I see this as Tatis' race to lose.
Background checks
3:03
Do MLB teams do background checks (besides physical exams) on potential signees? Given the accusations against Bauer in Ohio were seemingly quashed (to put it charitably), I get the Dodgers may not have learned of that incident but Bauer has many prior controversies, including with harassing women.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
Seems pretty clear that many teams don't do this to the degree that they should.
Houzer
3:05
Any chance Matthew Boyd could fetch Gavin Lux or Drew Waters this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
I don't see either of those players moving for a guy who can be a free agent next winter.
Ben
3:06
At this point, is there any way to view the Orioles has conducting a real rebuild or is this just the Angelos heirs paring down expenses as much as possible to maximize what they get for selling the team once Peter Angelos dies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
We have the Orioles' org as #1 in future value on THE BOARD, and Baseball America recently ranked their farm system #2. Both have a lot to do with Adley Rutschman, but it would seem that better days are around the corner for the Orioles beyond just having the game's top prospect.
Alex
3:09
If the league were to have lowered CBT thresholds in the next CBA, wouldn’t the big market teams insist on an amnesty clause also being included so they have some flexibility to spend in future years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
There would have to be some kind of phase-in for something like the proposal that was floated this week to work. but getting there seems like it would be a lot of work from a grandfathering perspective. I can't see the players agreeing to lowering the threshold from $210M to $180M anyway.
Bubba
3:11
How many more games do you think Ohtani has to play to pretty much lock in the MVP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
I think we've passed that point, and even Vlad Jr. would tell you that.
Guest
3:12
The playoff odds now give the Reds a better chance to make the post-season than the Padres.  You think that will happen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
I think it comes down to what SD gets out of its rotation the rest of the way — particularly if Darvish comes back and pitches reasonably well, and if Snell and Paddack improve. If they don't get at least a couple of those guys going, they're cooked.
JJ
3:13
It seems like most fans have come around to the idea of DH in the NL. Will the owners and players union quit using it as a bargaining chip and make the fans happy next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
the DH is inevitable but it's so far down the list of issues that need to be settled.

And I know there are a bunch of CBA/CBT questions still in the queue but I've got my fill of thinking about that stuff for one week.
Guest
3:17
Over/under 1.5 for the number of all-star games that Jonathan India makes in his MLB career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I'll take the over if he can hit like he has this year. Huge boost for the Reds.
Alby
3:18
I read that proposal to slash the salary cap as an insult. The floor just means owners would rather give money to each other than to the players. Will the MLBPA see it that way?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
I'm pretty sure that proposal is DOA.
Guest
3:19
What are your thoughts on the Phillies' outlook after 2021, following what I presume to be either a lost division race or a swift playoff defeat at the hands of the Brewers, Dodgers, or Giants?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
I suspect they're in for a managerial change. I thought Joe Girardi would fare better there, but he hasn't, for whatever reason. The org is 28th in both the FG and BA farm system rankings, and they have a very top-heavy payroll... it's like Dave Dombrowski has been there for half a decade already, without the winning!
Guest
3:21
Is it time for the Reds to admit that the Akiyama signing was just a mistake?  Even with Winker out, they have a better outfield alignment available with Aquino, Castellanos, and Nanquin.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
On a roster with Castellanos and Winker, Akiyama has his uses as a defensive caddy but you're right, the signing hasn't worked out
Greg
3:23
Will Shogo Akiyama hit an MLB homerun at any point in his baseball career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
I like his odds better than my own, but I'm not under contract for next year.
3:25
Looking at his Statcast page, he has only three ballparks where balls he's hit would have gone out, all from this year: Anaheim (1), Houston (2), and the Bronx (3, LOL).
3:26
Poll results: Reds 50.7%, Padres 34.7%, Cards/Phillies 5.3%, Mets 4%
that should read 50.7% for the Reds
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