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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/22/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Ben
12:03
Do you think MLB and Rawlings will change the ball this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
I think they'd be foolish not to. For as exciting as home runs are, they've got a PR problem on their hands now, and the so-called steroid era taught us that MLB gets very squeamish when the sanctity of home run records is threatened. I doubt they'll be transparent about it, but I think we'll see some kind of attempt to return to more normal levels.
Pujols
12:05
Do you think I care about round numbers? close to losing my career .300 average. Do I retire before that happens?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
No. Maybe if the contract was up at the end of this year, but bypassing two more years and a total of $59 million to keep it .300? Nobody cares about batting average that much.
Trevor Collicott
12:07
How do you write for fan graphs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
With both hands.
Trent
12:07
When you look back on this season in a few years, will you be applying a giant mental asterisk to all the hitters' statistics, based on the unprecedented HR rate as fueled by the juiced ball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
High home run rates part of the 21st century baseball landscape. I think we'll look back on this season the way we do the high-scoring , high-homer 1999-2001 seasons — as extremes but not that far divorced rom what surrounded them.

The lesson I've taken from those years is that the raw numbers and rates are interesting when analyzing those seasons, but that i'm a bit more wary of the meaning of milestones (500 HR, for example). All the more reason to use more comprehensive metrics that adjust for park and league scoring levels.
Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs
12:12
Who do you suppose would win the AL CY if voting took place today?  Verlander leads in a lot of the traditional stats while Minor and Lynn are ahead in both versions of WAR.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Lynn's 3.60 ERA is probably too high to win. Leaving last night's Detroit snit aside, I don't think that Verlander has it locked up. Cole's numbers are very similar to his teammates. Morton and Minor and Giolito are all in the conversation, too.
Wayne
12:17
Schmidt, Boggs, Brett & Molitor were a great 3B crop to grow up with, but who do you have as the best since then? Adrian with the glove & the fun or Chipper with the big switch hit bat?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
Both greats and worthy Hall of Famers. I have Beltre 4th and Jones 6th in JAWS. I probably enjoyed Beltre's stretch with the Rangers as much as any recent player this side of Trout and Kershaw, for the added dimensions of the glove and the social media stuff.
JKD
12:21
IF they change the ball, how aggressive will teams be in pre-emptively cutting loose or de-emphasizing hitters who have been the biggest beneficiaries? Or will they wait and see?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
We've already seen that happen to some degree over the past few seasons, with one-dimensional sluggers like Chris Carter and Mark Trumbo devalued, and a fresh wave of swing-changers putting themselves on the map thanks to the new wave of hitting coaches and instructors. Why pay $15 million a year for midlevel free agent first baseman who can give you 30 homers when you can tweak the swing of a fringe guy and get similar production?
Oaktoon
12:27
A's once again proving FG Playoff Odds dead wrong-- so assuming (yes, big assumptions) a) they make it and b) they can get by one-gamer-- doesn't 5 of 6 wins from HOUS/NYY this week show that great defense, power up and down lineup and deep bullpen could succeed in October?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Dead wrong? Are you telling me that the ice cube tray in your freezer disproves global warming?

The A's began the year with a 32.3% chance at making the playoffs, the sixth-highest in the AL, just outside the playoff picture. They now show a 53.5% chance of making the playoffs, which is... sixth in the AL, just outside the playoff picture. They're a good ballclub with a legitimate shot of overtaking the Rays and/or Indians for that Wild Card spot, but this is not "gotcha" territory when it comes to our playoff odds. Put those ice cubes in your drink, and chill just a bit.
3000 hits
12:33
No matter the scoring levels, seems this is one milestone that still guarantees HOF (minus PEDs). Yes, we now have a ton of young stars, but they're not really racking up hit totals (though they could if they stick around 20 years). Aside from Altuve (and Cano/PEDs/etc), any of these studs look like hit-aggregators in the long run?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
The highest hit total of any player who's not yet 30 is Starlin Castro's 1,574, and he's been sub-replacement level this year; Altuve is 44 hits behind him but will blaze past next year.

There's nobody sneaking up who won't be slowed by the era's emphasis on power and walks. Manny Machado (1176 and still in his age-26 season) and Mike Trout (1315 in his age-27) are in much better shape than their peers; the next-highest active guy at 26 is Bryce Harper (1039). Lindor (799) leads those in their age-25 seasons.
Guest
12:40
deGrom Cy chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Peripherals be damned, I think that in the eyes of the voters, it's going to be hard for any NL pitcher to surpass Ryu while he's carrying a 1.64 ERA
Bullpen Management
12:42
It appears that teams are, in many cases, at least attempting to use their bullpens more correctly as time moves forward.  Do you think we will be at at a point soon where we'll see a team protecting a 2-run lead in the 4th inning with their best available reliever [with the belief that runs, at any point, are essentially very important].  Example; Brewers are winning 2-0, but the opposing team has bases loaded and one out in the bottom of the 4th with the middle of the lineup coming up --- the best route to stop run scoring would be to bring in Josh Hader.  Do you think teams, managers, players are ready for this optimal change?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
not like that, not anytime soon. A 2-run lead in the 4th inning isn't a high-leverage situation, and a manager who tried to run his staff that way would probably have an open mutiny on his hands by Memorial Day. The culture of baseball does not change that radically in a short time.
Bebo
12:45
Doesn't the league risk a new dead ball era if they change the balls back?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
A new deadball era, with a home run for every 5 or10 games played, and scoring levels below 4 per game? I can guarantee you that's not how this is going to go down
A dude
12:50
What are the odds Luis Castillo is able to finish in the top 3 of NL Cy Young voting? And do you think he could end his career with a Cy Young?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
Top 3? Not with those DR drug ring allegations hanging over... .ohhhhh, the other Luis Castillo.

He's having a fine season, but I don't see the statistical or intangible hook that gets him into the top 3 unless he just dominates September. I definitely think he has the talent to win a Cy Young award if he stays healthy, but we're not there yet.
Kosch
12:52
Do you order food everyday for lunch?  If so, how do you afford rent, diapers, etc?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
No. I generally either reheat some leftovers or take a walk and buy a more affordable lunch, but with a noon chat, it's a lot harder to fit the latter in. I probably order lunch about 6 times a month — rare outside of chat days but hardly unprecedented — and maybe we order dinner twice a week. I really enjoy cooking as a way of escaping the keyboards and screens while keeping a handle on household expenses and routines.
Ron Burgundy
12:56
Since your July 2 article on Machado when he sat with 2.3 fWAR, he has gone .247/.303/.389, 82 wRC+ and currently sits at 2.5 fWAR. His last HR was July 30 and has 2 XBH's in August. He has been awful in his home park all season. What is going on? Injury, indifference, pressing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
A good question, and worth another look at some point, either from me or somebody else who can bring a different perspective
1:00
Speaking of which, Eno Sarris' piece on Machado and Harper and the rarity of young free agents, from yesterday, is worth a read if you have a subscription. Long story shot, yes, both are underperforming relative to expectations but are the only players among among the top 50 in WAR who are both under 30 and acquired via free agency. And of course they're 26, not 29 or something. In the long run, this will probably pay off  https://theathletic.com/1150554/2019/08/21/sarris-those-hefty-contract...
pirates hurdles
1:00
What if Markakis fools the braves into 4 more years, he would make a great 3000 hit test case. I know its improbable, but not impossible
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
Considering he's unlikely to hit 1.0 WAR by either our flavor or B-Ref's, I think it's pretty clear that's not happening.
Guest
1:01
Do you think it would be more effective to use the Median JAWS to evaluate HOF chances? RF and CF are so top heavy with WAR that average maybe not a fair assessment of the bar to clear.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
wrote this in 2013 https://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2013/01/03/jaws-and-the-2013-ballot.... Long story short, using the median flags even more candidates as worthy than we've already had in recent years, which is a very tough position to defend.
JustCurious
1:03
Pretty sure that isn't the optimal time to bring in Hader. People forget that top relievers only have so many innings to pitch. You use Hader in the 4th and then need 5 innings from lesser relievers. All the sudden you've used him and still lost. Best relievers should be used in the highest leverage spot not the spot where the team is most likely to score (obviously some correlation there, but they aren't the same).
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Not to mention the fact that the pitcher's spot comes up and benches are already shortened by these big bullpens, so at some point in the later innings, you've got an unfavorable matchup where your 4th best reliever is hitting with men on base or something.
Balked
1:04
If Tatis missed the rest of the season as expected, will he miss out on Rookie of the Year honors?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Pete Alonso has already broken Cody Bellinger's NL rookie record for homers and is at the center of a contending team. Given how much time Tatis had already missed, I think it would have been hard for him to overtake Alonso.
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