JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/22/19

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John

1:05

Can nick markakis find playing time for 600 more hits and if he does get 600 more hits........

Jay Jaffe

1:07

his defense has deteriorated to the point of near-unplayability, so probably not. And no, even if he gets to 3,000 hits, i have an extremly hard time envisioning him getting elected. I can't imagine voting for him if he's 17 miles short of the JAWS standard (he's 78 in the JAWS RF rankings, 4 spots below Harold Baines).

Angels

1:07

how soul crushing is 3 walk off losses on the road when you are barely handing on to a potential playoff run?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

when you were 62-64 before those 3 walkoff losses, you weren't hanging onto a potential playoff run, you were hoping for miracles.

TomBruno23

1:10

Who is a player that as a kid you enjoyed a lot even though, in retrospect, he wasn't really all that great? For me it's definitely Vince Coleman. Thanks.

Jay Jaffe

1:13

For some reason Gorman Thomas comes to mind. He had about a 5-year run as a 4-win player but almost no value outside of that. He was a favorite, but not anything close to an MVP or whatever

Tribe Fanatic

1:14

Eloy Jimenez has had his share of struggles this year. Just normal or cause for a major reevaluation in his projections in 2020 and beyond?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

With the caveats that I'm not a scout and haven't seen all that much of him this year, this seems kinda normal, but the continued injuries do rate a concern — something Eric and Kiley pointed to in their evaluations https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-chicago-white-sox/). The power is there, the swing-and-miss is a bit high, and the defense is brutal, but he's 22.

1:17

What's your favorite meal to cook? Looking for some inspiration that isn't chicken / sweet potatoes / veggies.

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Hmmm. Spaghetti and meatballs is one of my favorites, in part because I'm adapting my mom's recipes and because Emma loves my version. Likewise with my mom's brisket recipe.

Lamb ragu over pappardelle, using this recipe https://www.foodandwine.com/recipes/pappardelle-lamb-ragu, which I've adapted to the instant pot, fills me with satisfaction. This instant pot shredded chicken tacos one https://lifemadesimplebakes.com/instant-pot-shredded-chicken-tacos/ is also fun, and I feel like i'm getting away with something because it's relatively healthy compared to, say, carnitas.

Guest

1:22

Mike Soroka 4.8 bWAR/ 3.4 fWAR vs Pete Alonso 4.3 bWAR/ 4.1 fWAR. I fully realize Pete is going to win Rookie of the year with the HR's. That said in a year of the juiced ball I find Soroka's ability to limit the long ball more impressive than Pete's ability to hit it. Soroka is more important to the first place Braves Rotation that experienced crazy turnover last year to this year than Alonso is to the Mets offense imo. Wish there was a rookie of the year pitcher award separate from batter award.

Jay Jaffe

1:23

You're right, he belongs in the discussion, and what he's done has been impressive. If he were missing a ton of bats, he'd have more traction in the awards race

stever20

1:23

what are your thoughts on Chris Sale? Is this just extending it before he has to have TJ surgery?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

I'm dealing with a bit of cognitive dissonance on this one. If he had no ligament damage (as claimed) why did he get a PRP injection, and into where? If it's this, I'm still somewhat concerned about the long-term possibility of TJ:

Why PRP for Sale? Possible explanation from one doc: 'Makes sense that his ligament is swollen and needs something to get the cells to heal because they are being stretched. You can see that inflammation and the ligament fibers on the MRI'

That doesn't mean Sale can't be effective or is automatically going to wind up getting TJ before contributing more of value — look at Masahiro Tanaka since he was diagnosed and injected in 2014 (!), or Aaron Nola in 2016.

But beyond just his elbow/UCL< I'm also concerned about Sale's recent history of shoulder trouble, which is always more ominous than elbow trouble because there's no TJ equivalent, with a similarly high success rate.

Richie

1:28

So what was it about Gorman that you liked?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

a shaggy dude who liked to hit home runs and run into walls, playing for a very fun team

dibidibidib

1:30

Do you have a favorite under-the-radar or underappreciated ballpark (MiLB included)?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I've only been to it twice but have really liked Smith's Park in Salt Lake City when I've been there. The Wasatch Mountains as backdrop is a great view. Both minor league NYC parks, in Coney Island and Staten Island, have unbeatable backdrops as well. There are still a lot of major league parks I haven't visited, most notably PNC among the top tier ones, but Dodger Stadium has stood out for the history and the views, and Citi, Safeco, and AT&T for things like amenities and ballpark experience as a whole.

Eric Gregg

1:34

Didn’t Dave Cameron recommend the Braves in the 2012 wild card game using Kimbrel I the 1st, Vemters km the 2nd etc? Basically make sure you use your best pitchers in reverse order? Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I don't recall whether Dave did that specifically, but in a one-game single elimination situation, i can see the argument, even if I'm not sure I agree. For one thing, I'd like to have something better than my sixth- or ninth-best pitcher pitching the ninth, particularly if it's a close game.

DJ Tanner

1:37

The Dodgers are usually on the smart end of most deals but how bad is trading away Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields going to look in 10 years?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

Probably not great, the Alvarez that they traded in 2016 was a different player from the one today, as he wasn't elevating the ball with consistency. The BA Handbook from 2017 had him as the Astros' 28th-best prospect, admittedly in an org they ranked 4th at the time. A whole lot has gone right for him to get even to this stage.

ChanceSisco'sThongSong

1:41

Eric Davis was __________

Jay Jaffe

1:42

as electrifying a ballplayer as I have ever seen.

1:44

64 homers, 130 steals, 149 wRC+ and 11.8 WAR in 1986-87, his age 24- and 25 seasons.

JustCurious

1:44

Any thoughts on the Verlander situation?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

Bush league on the Astros' part — they have no standing to bar a credentialed reporter from the clubhouse unless s/he's done something to violate the rules. It's up to JV whether he wants to talk to a given reporter or not, but the team can't prevent anyone from doing his/her job.

OK folks I've reached my pitch count. Thanks for stopping by!

1:47

And before I forget, here's my Bo Bichette piece: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bo-bichette-is-walloping-the-baseball/

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