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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/22/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Hey folks, welcome to my Tuesday chat. I'm back from California and will dive in here in a few minutes after I add a brief addition to today's forthcoming piece about the Giants' offensive struggles. Stand by for a few...
2:05
OK, that's done. Had to stop the presses on a piece about the Giants' offense falling off a cliff because of this earth-shaking news https://twitter.com/extrabaggs/status/1694045181362753778?s=20
that piece will be out shortly.
Matt VW
2:07
Mookie Betts is on pace for 44 homers. Can you think of anyone else his size who's hit 40? Campanella's listed at the same (alleged) height, but had a really different build...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
With the caveat that listed heights don't always match up with reality, there have been three seasons in which a player 5'9" (Mookie's listed height) or shorter have hit 40 homers, none of them recent: Mel Ott 42 in 1929, Hack Wilson (who was 5'6" but barrel-chested) 56 in 1930, and Campanella 41 in 1953.
José Ramírez, listed at 5'9" and considerably more Mookie-shaped, hit 39 in 2018
That Guy
2:10
Two questions which are related - Is Brian Cashman's seat flaming hot, and should it be? This season is a disaster.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
I don't think it's flaming hot, but it's probably pretty warm, and while I don't think he's going anywhere, it's pretty clear that if he stays some significant changes will be needed in that front office. Part of the issue, for better or worse, is that Hal Steinbrenner doesn't seem terribly motivated to clean house and start anew with another head of baseball operations.
mac
2:11
Should the Yankees trade Cole and Judge in the offseason as a courtesy to those two guys? Legitimately none of the Pirates teams Cole played on were ever this bad, Judge could've left in the offseason but was lied to ("we're not done yet"), and it's only going to get worse in New York.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Oh please. Star power sells tickets, and what the Yankees have going for them — though they haven't wielded that advantage to its full extent — is the ability to run big payrolls. Those two players signed to be Yankees and aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
MT_LAD_FAN
2:12
Any chance Dodgers sign Ohtani and bring back Kershaw and Urias? They'll need darn near a full rotation with Buehler, May, Gonsolin all recovering from injury and Miller, Sheehan, Pepiot and Stone all still breaking into the bigs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
It's tough to imagine that they can do all three; I would think that if they manage to sign Ohtani, it would means letting Urías walk. But you're right in that even with two of those guys in the fold, they will need to flesh out that rotation with some innings guys; my guess is that they retain Lynn, either by picking up his  $18 million option or by reworking it.
Zach
2:15
Given the current offensive environment, isn't Julio Rodriguez's recent 17 hits in 4 games stretch even more impressive than just being the best such stretch in MLB history?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
that we're in a low-batting average era makes it a bit more impressive, sure. It's still just four games, so I don't think we need to hyperventilate over how cool it was. Wrote about Julio and the Mariners' surge yesterday in case anyone missed it: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/julio-rodriguezs-hit-parade-helps-mariners...
2:18
Speaking of past articles, while I was in Los Angeles and San Diego last week, I wrote about Fernando Valenzuela's #34 being retired, a cause I advocated for for over a decade. So cool to witness this one in person:
Sanford
2:18
Francisco Lindor is pretty good at baseball, huh?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
Indeed. He's put together a season very similar to last year's one, which was MVP-caliber. Of the Mets' multitude of problems, he's not one of them
KC Pain
2:19
Which team in the AL Central has the best chance of being a dominant team in 5 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
Honestly I don't see any of them having a chance at that. Cleveland has the best system (9th in our rankings https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings) but doesn't have any high-end prospects (60 FV or greater) in the pipeline, and as they've demonstrated amply over the years, they don't spend money.
Porcho Villa
2:22
Do you think Torkelson's recent surge portends a true breakout, or is it just another hot streak? Great across-the-board quality of contact metrics but drilling down a bit more it seems that he is slaughtering fastballs but still struggling to hit   (/hard-hit) everything else.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I haven't had a chance to look very closely at him lately, and you're right, he's scuffling against most secondaries (curveballs an exception), but jeez, a 23-year-old with a 14.6% barrel rate certainly looks promising
Smiling Politely
2:24
FYI, on the main site, it says 8/8/23 Jaffe chat (though otherwise, it works)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Whoops, sorry about that. Rushed home from looking at some real estate to get this chat together in short order and I just cut-and-pasted from the last one without catching that.
It's fixed on the file but the home page hasn't updated yet.
2:26
(And yes, the Jaffe-Span clan is looking to move elsewhere in Brooklyn. Nothing imminent yet but we liked this one!)
Jaf Jayee
2:27
If you had to vote today, who's your NL MVP and why is it Mookie?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Mookie has been on fire lately and has taken over the MLB leads in both fWAR and bWAR. Without looking more closely into secondary stuff I'd still probably lean Acuña — the base-stealing stuff adds some extra excitement, and he was so good so early — but I don't think he's an automatic anymore.
Sammy So-so
2:29
Would you move Oneil Cruz from the tallstop position and make him a corner outfielder starting next season? Seems like it would be far less stress on him in multiple ways. Thanks, Jay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
I think a position change is a long -term eventuality but it's still worth seeing whether he can handle a full season at shortstop now. It's not like a pennant depends upon it
Smiling Politely
2:31
Sometime this week (presumably), I'll become a first time dad! I know you've got a young one, and while I'm sure the Jaffe/Span household is, itself, an introduction to baseball, any advice about making sure it's fun and something they enjoy (I don't wanna be *that* parent)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Congratulations! I've found that a soft touch is best. Show them baseball in its many forms — major league, minor league, Little League, on TV, in person, books, videos, balls, gloves, and MASCOTS — and see if it captures their attention; don't force it upon them.
For us, we have a lot of baseball memorabilia and books lying around, and we sort of see what our daughter engages with
2:34
explain the rules (briefly and simply, not easy) if she watches a game with us, tell her about the best players and the good and bad guys
2:35
Our daughter is very worked up about the Astros cheating, since she began to understand a bit of baseball while my wife was editing the stuff at The Athletic and since one of her tee-ball teams was nonetheless named the Astros because it was coached by a Texan
Mike
2:35
Joey Gallo still has a job. MAT is among the least valuable CF in the game. Are the Twins going to squander this playoff chance out of fear of trying younger players in place of these two?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
Hey, somebody has to lose that division! Taylor (1.4 WAR) has actually been around a league-average player with his defense, which as a whole for the team has been subpar
2:39
Gallo's decline from Gold Glove winner to slightly-below-average defender, OTOH, has reduced him to a somebody of very limited utility. I dunno, man, it's just a bummer to watch
Yoshida's Island
2:40
How many star players had their career cut way short by legal issues before the past few years? Felipe Vasquez, Bauer, now possibly Franco, but I feel like this wasn't a thing before the last decade.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
you're right that it's a weird constellation of them, but we did see a bunch of careers in the '80s and '90s derailed by the legal aspect of their drug issues and more recently, how about Ugueth Urbina doing time for attempted murder?
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