JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/22/23

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Steve

2:43

Jay, How far ahead do they schedule the venue for all star games? Any idea when Camden Yards gets another turn?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

Right now they have 2024 and '26 scheduled but not '25. https://www.mlb.com/all-star/future-locations. OPACY is probably due but obviously John Angelos has to get his **** together if that's going to happen. My guess is that once he does, the O's get a game there in the near future

Hank

2:45

Will the Rangers hold on in the West? Now two teams right on their heels, with the particularly hot Mariners and always-dangerous Astros? Mariners turned the AL playoff picture extra-interesting real quick in the past couple weeks.

Jay Jaffe

2:46

It's suddenly a lot of fun, right? I still think the Rangers hold on, though their bullpen strikes me as vulnerable

Slava Ukraini

2:46

Cashman is a HOF?

Jay Jaffe

2:47

I think so, yes. It's no small feat to remain in that particular job for that long with that much success. Even given the money advantage, winning is hardly automatic.

Mt Elden

2:47

Damian Lillard routinely got criticized by national media types for "not wanting to win badly enough" because he was content to play out his contract in Portland. Why doesn't Mike Trout receive the same treatment from the media considering the dude spends more time playing golf and watching the Eagles every October than he does playing meaningful baseball games?

Jay Jaffe

2:49

I think it all depends what kind of media you're talking about. Talk radio assholes live and die by this stuff. Print media much less so. beyond that, one basketball player can have a bigger impact on his team's fate than one baseball player, though I don't think Lillard is quite Trout-level.

Vlad's Dad

2:49

I asked the same of Ben, but what odds would you put on a Pete Alonso HOF career? He's off to a great start despite the late start...

Jay Jaffe

2:52

Low. He's had one season of 5.0 bWAR or better, and it was his rookie year. Great power, obviously, but not a great all-around hitter; he's had two seasons with a wRC+ in the 140s, none higher than 144. 17.2 career bWAR nearing the end of his 5th season. Dan Szymborski's offseason ZiPS spreadsheet has him finishing with a JAWS in the low 30s.

Evan

2:52

Any thoughts on the Michael Busch call up?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

With J.D. Martinez out, he can play his best defensive position, DH.

Stevie

2:54

Is there any upside to Ohtani pitching again this year?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

Yes. Because he's f'ing good at it, in the middle of perhaps the greatest season ever, and we want to be entertained!

Zach

2:56

Is it time to start talking about Cal Raleigh as one of the best catchers in baseball? Sure, he somehow might have been omitted from even the deep honorable mention section of the Trade Value series (tsk tsk, Ben), but he's closing in on a second straight 4+ WAR season and is fourth among all catchers in WAR since the start of 2022.

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Yeah, seems fair to me. 2022-23, he's 4th in fWAR among catchers at 7.6, with less playing time and more defensive value than anyone else in the top 5.

Oh, here's the Giants article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-giants-have-defied-gravity-by-remainin...

Any day I get to reference Wile E. Coyote and Leo Tolstoy in the same piece is a good one

KC Pain

2:59

Thoughts on a rookie Cy Young and naming if after Valenzuela?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

Hmm, it's a nice little idea. Hardly essential but kind of cool

salt water jaffe

2:59

does jaws account for different calculations of war from different outlets/sites/etc?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

No. I stick to bWAR because I find it more useful for historical pitching than fWAR. But in any complete analysis, I do want to eyeball fWAR and the multiple fielding metrics to see if there's anything it's telling us that's notably different from what bWAR is telling us.

Sirras

3:00

Good luck with the house hunting! The Brooklyn market is tough these days!

Jay Jaffe

3:01

Thanks. It's a real challenge given all of the various facets we have to consider

mac

3:01

Did the Rizzo concussion story drop out of the news cycle quicker than you thought it would? Borderline medical malpractice and no update about anyone being held responsible or facing any consequences

Jay Jaffe

3:05

I think it got a fair bit of play and could resonate behind the scenes, more as a cautionary tale and driver of additional measures than as something where individuals are going to be singled out for punishment or something. Part of the issue is that Rizzo's own words suggest he didn't really make the connection between his initial collision and his more recent struggles, so it's not as though his pleas for help were going ignored. MLB (and other sports) has to help players learn to recognize the signs that they may be having issues in order to advance in this area.

Ben Bates

3:05

Is Soto’s ceiling lower than we thought/is he always going to be a streaky, lowish average hitter? Or is he still developing?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

The issue isn't his ceiling on the offensive side but rather his declining defense. I wonder if he's not plugged in enough when he's out there in left field, stewing about his last plate appearance

salt water jaffe

3:07

does the exclusion of bonds, clemens, and other similarly statistically qualified players for the hall of fame have any effect on the jaws model? other models?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

Bonds ,Clemens, and A-Rod would raise the JAWS standards by a noticeable few decimal points if they were enshrined. You'd scarcely notice if a Manny, Sammy, Mac, or Sheffield were elected as they're much closer to the standard

Jeb

3:08

I loved your article about the Yankees and agreed with the points you made. On the other hand, I feel like the press, in general, (and fans!) have really piled onto the Yankees to the point where they're underestimating them in 2024. This year is bad, unequivocally, and despite being a fan, I too, have questioned the front office. On the other hand, there are plenty of green shoots for next year - prime Cole and Judge is a good starter kit, for example. The farm has some interesting prospects, even if it isn't top tier. And while hitter development at the MLB level leaves much to be desired, pitcher development has been quite encouraging. That might not be a world series contender, but it could be a playoff contender, on paper. What do you think about the 2024 Yankees?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Thanks. I think they have to make some significant improvements in their processes behind the scenes — there's been some stuff out there about the lack of accountability in their analytics department, for one thing — and it's probably time to cut bait on both Stanton and LeMahieu, becuase they're just not productive anymore; they've netted 0.2 WAR between them.

YorDaddy

3:12

Odds on Altuve getting to 3000 hits?

Jay Jaffe

3:13

From talking to Dan I think it's something in the 30% range. Freddie Freeman is the most likely active guy to get there but even he's not 50/50.

Pat

3:13

what's your best (lowest) Immaculate Grid score? My lowest is 105. All those old baseball card days pay off .Goal is to break 100 someday. I think my most obscure answer was Will McEaney a 70's reliever who pitched for Cincinnati & Montreal (Washngton Nationals).

Jay Jaffe

3:14

My lowest is around 20. I'm generally about 75 or less when I complete them. I don't bother playing them out if I guess one wrong.

But it's a lot of fun and everywhere I've gone over the past month — from the cool stuff behind the scenes in Cooperstown to the Dodger Stadium dugout — people are talking about it.

wADHD

3:15

In your opinion, who has had the best rookie season ever as a hitter? Ichiro?

Jay Jaffe

3:16

Mike Trout. Not a hard question, really https://stathead.com/tiny/v2wzw

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