JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/23/18

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Jay Jaffe

1:09

It's very tough to capture that kind of value Zobrist has beyond noting that winning teams want that guy, and so he's played in seven postseasons (albeit with pretty mediocre numbers outside of his 2016 WS MVP award) and won two rings.

I don't think Zobrist will have a strong HOF case. He's 37, has a 40.4 peak WAR (average is 44.5) and 42.5 JAWS (average is 57.0). He's not as good a candidate by advanced stats as Utley or Pedrioa will be. He has fewer than 1,500 hits, so it's an open question as to whether he gets to 2,000 and avoids being completely dismissed as a candidate no matter what the advanced metrics say (see my Rule of 2,000 article in connection to Joe Mauer).

Andy

1:10

Why do Hall of Fame Voters emphasize career hits so much? Not only is it outdated (it penalizes those who get on base via other means), but these same voters rarely care about hits on a single season basis.

Jay Jaffe

1:11

It's a proxy for longevity, which is the primary basis on which players are elected. In the mind of too many voters, if you had fewer than 2000 hits, whether you're Tony Oliva or Dick Allen or Minnie Minoso or Bobby Grich or Andruw Jones, you didn't play long enough no matter what the advanced stats say.

Fahad

1:12

Would you rather fight 100 Chicken-sized Zombies or 10 Zombie-sized Chickens?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

So long as the chickens are only zombie-sized and not actual zombies, I'm fighting the 10, as they're much easier to take out

1:13

What's your rule of thumb regarding magic number? I personally don't bother with them until after college football starts.

Jay Jaffe

1:13

is football still a thing? When do they play it?

Kristen

1:14

What kind of deals will the older FA SP's like Morton and Happ get this off-season?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

I think something on an updated version of Happ's expiring 3/$36M deal (over which he's provided good value, in the 9-10 WAR range). Maybe 3/$45M?

Matt

1:16

Is LeMahieu really that bad? He has his limits, but he plays good defense, has a 101 wRC+ on the road, doesn't strike out much and makes a lot of contact. Even with a stiff Coors penalty he's projected to be worth 1.5 WAR, and he's been at 1.9 or above each of the last 3 seasons. I feel like just about every team in baseball would want a player like that if deployed properly. What's the knock on him that makes it so he should be left on the curb?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

entire career in COL, 90 wRC+, one season above 1.9 WAR. He's an adequate bench or 2nd division guy, and maybe he'sa
super-duper clubhouse guy, but statistically, he's not somebody who significantly moves a team towards winning.

GSon

1:17

7 questions in a half hour.. as in "Animal House.." "... a new low..., I'm so ashamed of myself..."

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Who fucking cares? This is my chat, I'll answer the questions at the speed and level of detail I want, and really, that's the end of the fucking discussion.

Josh R

1:18

How fun and delicious would a Yankees/Astros wild card game be?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Epic.

Mountie Votto

1:20

Say Cincinnati adds two solid but not ace starters this winter, say, Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbin. How close does that get them to contention in a tough division?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Not nearly enough. They have one starter (Castillo) who's been worth more than 0.9 WAR, and he's still rather raw.

john cale

1:22

more likely HoFer...Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Kinsler, unless Elvis sticks around to reach 3,000

Brian CashGod

1:22

Dude fuck GSon. Thank you for taking the time to chat with us, I really enjoy these and I know a lot of other folks do to. Especially appreciate this week's given the computer problem you're having, I hope that works out OK

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Thank you!

Look, anyone who is bothered by the speed of the chat can just read the transcript later. There's no shame in that.

squeeze bunt

1:24

Isn't the point of these chats to drive readers toward the page? With that "who fucking cares" answer - you just lost a reader. For future consideration

Jay Jaffe

1:25

the point of the chats is to interact with readers. there's a bad apple among them every now and then, and I chose to make an example of one. I'm pretty confident based on the queue that he's the exception not the rule.

Bob

1:25

Scott Kingery... 59 OPS+ at age 24. I can't think of someone that bad at that age ever turning out to be a useful major leaguer, am I wrong?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

got a similar question a couple weeks ago. Brandon Phillips is the answer

(though I think he was younger, the question then had to do with Top X Prospect I think)

Mountie Votto

1:27

Re: Reds -- even with hypothetical return to form/health from DiSclafani and a step forward from Tyler Mahle? Trying to remain optimistic in the face of a meddling owner and a brutal division haha

Jay Jaffe

1:28

That's a whole lot to bank upon. Basically, the Reds need Castillo to turn into an ace, come up with a legitimate 2 or 3 starter, and then fill in from outside.

stever20

1:28

Dodgers, do you think they can recover or are they surprisingly toast now? 4.5 back with 34 to go.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

I wouldn't count the Dodgers out but their sudden bullpen weakness suggests they're not playing deep into October one way or another.

Lamish Hinklater

1:29

Re: Jeff McNeil and his age- he had just turned 26 at the start of the season, and had missed the better part of 2 seasons with injuries. A similar timeline to deGrom, honestly. So, is age really the fairest reason to discount him? I mean, it's fair to just say you don't think he's that good based on scouting, tools, etc., but the age thing feels like a cop-out considering circumstances. No disrespect.

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Age is a proxy for a whole lot in a discussion about prospects,and I'll freely admit to being no expert in the area, but I have yet to see any prospect expert worth reading place him in the top 30 of the Mets' downtrodden system, and that's an even bigger tell, as far as I'm concerned. Did I miss one? Not on BA, BP, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs or Cat Fancy's lists, and I'm pretty sure not on ESPN's (though I need to resubscribe to be sure).

stever20

1:33

On a 1-10 scale, how concerned are you with Chris Sale and his shoulder? It seemed like first time was just a way to limit innings, but maybe there really is something there???

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Moderately concerned, but I think the Red Sox are smart to use this 9-game lead to their advantage and let him get as healthy as he's gonna get before the postseason circus starts.

1:34

So Rick Ankiel wants to make a comeback next year as a reliever... If he were to make a 25-man roster, how impressive would that be?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

it would be a great story, for sure.

yankinstl

1:35

Would the yankees be one of the ones trying to sign Happ at the 3/45 deal? or are they going to continue to try and move away from older pitchers

Jay Jaffe

1:35

I would think they'd be in the mix. 3/$45M isn't a backbreaker even if it goes south.

zurzles

1:36

McNeil was on Carson's fringe prospects list, the only list that matters

Jay Jaffe

1:36

yes, he was a Fringe Five guy. I still like my mustache more than Carson's.

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