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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat.
It's my daughter's birthday today so I've been running around like crazy, but the second installment of my annual Hall of Fame progress report is up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep...
Part I, covering pitchers and catchers, ran last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep...
12:04
Before I get going, thanks to a couple participants in last week's chat for ideas that directly led to articles. Reader Your Name pointed out that at the time, the Pirates didn't have a single player with a wRC+ of 100 or better, regardless of playing time. That would be a first if they pulled it off, as I discovered: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aargh-the-pirates-are-in-danger-of-making-... Since then, however, Tommy Pham and Spencer Horwitz have nosed over the line. We'll see if they can maintain that
12:05
Also, reader Nasty Nate asked for a look at Nathan Eovaldi, who's having a sneaky great season: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nathan-eovaldis-sneaky-great-season/
12:06
For tomorrow, I'm looking at the AL MVP race, which is far from the Aaron Judge cakewalk that it looked like during the first half of the season — particularly if you take note of Cal Raleigh's pitch framing as well as his prolific home run pace
Anyway, on with the show
MVP Race is over
12:06
Where do you project Cal to finish in HR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
The out-of-the-box rest-of-season projections that we offer have him finishing with either 57 or 58. Tomorrow's piece will have some odds via Dan's ZiPS projections.
Thank you!
12:10
Judge needs to average like 28mm in value annually through remaining contract to be worth his contract based on fangraphs value. No question. It's just crazy amount of value created so far.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
I'd regard those dollars-to-WAR figures as a bit outdated but yes, roughly speaking Judge has probably been worth more than half of the value of his $360 million deal through the first three seasons (out of nine).
Volpe
12:11
Is Volpe Yankees starting shortstop next year? Seems like they're getting to the end of their leash with him. Or will it be more of a Volpe / Caballero competition in spring?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I suspect that now that there's an MLB-caliber in-house alternative, Volpe will face a job challenge next spring.
Phil
12:13
Chapman has given up 0 hits and 1 walk in August. If he continues to pitch like this, and if Jansen makes the Hall, does Chapman almost have to, unsavory stuff or no? It's hard to think of anybody this dominant at this age.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Well, i don't expect him to continue to pitch hitless baseball. And I don't expect a rush to elect Jansen despite his save totals and R-JAWS, so... I'd put Chapman's odds at even longer if they're contingent on Jansen's election.
Skub-Chet
12:14
Skubal seems like he's hitting a wall, while Crochet is getting stronger...is there a Cy Young race happening in the AL?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Very much so. Skubal still has the edge but the gap has closed to the point that this could go down to the wire
12 to 6
12:17
jeez, sheehan looked amazing last night and with the dodgers' staff seemingly rounding into health/form (glasnow has the worst FIP out of the six starters - that seems like a good sign), it looks like their pitching is solidifying at the right time. i'm presuming that sasaki is on the outside looking in no matter what his health is, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Particularly given his struggles while rehabbing — Eric Longenhagen checked in recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/notes-on-more-pitching-rehabbers/) with an unflattering report — I think Sasaki is going to be looking at spot starting and long relief in September unless injuries press him into a bigger role. Getting him some innings, both for his peace of mind and to give him a larger platform to build upon, is important but so is winning the division.
12:20
And wow have I been impressed by Sheehan since his return. The Dustin May trade makes a lot more sense given his emergence.
Ham Fighter
12:21
Which Brewers player would you slot in highest on a hypothetical NL MVP ballot and where? Does say William Contreras catching 4 of every 5 games for the best team in the league outweigh guys like Perdomo, Carroll, Marte, Stowers & Winn who have more individual WAR but on middling teams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Even given their surprising season, I don't think they have to be represented strongly in the MVP voting. We'll see where they end up a month from now, but via the two flavors of WAR, Turang is the only player with more than 3.x by any measure (4.2 bWAR). Maybe that's worth a spot in the top 10 but I haven't sat down to try to figure it out.
bringbackpologrounds
12:26
Vladdy's OPS and bWAR are very similar to Miguel Cabrera's for their first 7 seasons (similar ages as well). Do you see him following Miggy's path and becoming an HOFer or settling into a Pete Alonso, 3 WAR per season player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
It's an interesting comp but within that timeframe, Vladito has been a higher-variance player (3 of 7 seasons at 116 OPS+ or lower, compared to one (Cabrera's 87-game callup season) for Miggy. That seven-year run only takes us up to the start of where Cabrera really became an elite hitter; in years 8–14 (2010–16), Cabrera put up a 169 OPS+ while averaging 34 homers and 6.2 WAR. I'd take the under on Guerrero relative to that.
12 to 6
12:30
max muncy has played in 89 games for the dodgers this season: they're 54-35. when he's not in the lineup, their record is 19-20. since muncy started wearing glasses, he's .295/.430(!)/.611(!) for a 1.040 ops and 17 homers, 60 rbi, and 46 walks. his seasonal "glasses wearing" notation is .295-45-160 with 122bb vs. 104 ks.

this is slightly tongue in cheek, but only slightly: is max muncy the actual nl mvp?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
It's been pretty remarkable how much better the Dodgers are with Muncy than without. That was the case last year too, at least in terms of their fill-ins' production. My theory is that it has to do with Muncy not just being an excellent hitter, he's something of a tone-setter because of his patience at the plate, reminding other players to slow it down and make the pitcher work
Oops forgot about a radio spot. Back shortly...
12:45
Time zones, how do they work? I appear to have forgotten.
anyway, back to our chat...
Bob
12:45
On MLB Now Brian Kenny is now rating Cal Ripken and Joe Morgan ahead of Honus Wagner and Rogers Hornsby. Is he slighting early baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
I don't think it's unreasonable to view those older players with skepticism specifically because of segregation. The quality of play is so much higher now because the pool of potential players is so much wider, and because nutrition and training have improved so much over the past century-plus
Matt VW
12:46
BWar likes Roman Anthony's defense so far...he's not showing up on Statcast yet. My eye test suggests he's hanging in more than contributing. (Not saying that's his ceiling, just that that's where he is as he's figuring it out.) Do you have a read on him in the field so far?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Anthony doesn't have enough innings to be a Statcast qualifier but the early read on his defense there is strong.
12:48
Stronger range-wise than arm-wise, i guess.
12:49
We are talking about just 152 innings in LF (always a challenge to measure given Fenway Park) and 223.1 in RF. But so far I'd be pretty happy with his defense if I'm the Sox
Cube Jockey
12:49
Will this year's OPS+ and WAR be adjusted for the Athletics hitters and pitchers as future years' Statcast info is built in the Sacramento ballpark?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Yes, as we get more data, our park factors will be adjusted retroactively as will the stats for which they're factors. This isn't unusual — we do this when it comes to significant dimension changes as well as new ballparks. Other sites do it as well.
wheelhouse
12:51
do you think Judge actually plays significant time at 1B in his career or is it more likely he just gradually transitions directly from RF to DH as Stanton gets deprioritized?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I think that will depend upon the Yankees' roster, his own health, and his desire to learn a new position. Wouldn't surprise me if he wants to learn first eventually given how hard he works and how much pride he takes in his defense. But I can also understand the Yankees proceeding cautiously here. "It's incredibly hard," as the man said.
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