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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/25
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Guest
12:53
What team had the best collection of players who due to age or poor seasons combined to create a below .500 team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I'd have to think about this for longer before giving you a final answer but for now I'll default to the 1992 Mets — subject of The Worst Team Money Could Buy, by John Harper and Bob Klapisch — had Hall of Famer Eddie Murray plus Willie Randolph, Todd Hundley, Howard Johnson (in CF!), Bobby Bonilla, and a rotation with Gooden, Cone, Saberhagen and peak Sid Hernandez... and they went 72-90
Beano
12:56
Saggese is really a nice lil player - does he have a future in St Louis or is he a utitlity guy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Why not both? Eric Longenhagen's prospect report has him as a 40+ FV guy, which is a utility-type player, and he concludes his writeup with "Below-average OBP and power output here limit Saggese to a contact-driven utility infield fit."  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/st-louis-cardinals-top-41-prospects/
Guest
12:58
Was Franklin Gutierrez that good of a defender? 33 DRS in 2009 and UZR/150 approaching 30?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
A name i haven't thought of in years! For a few years there he was elite. 66 DRS and 57 UZR in 2961 innings from 2007–09 and only one Gold Glove (2010, once he was in decline) to show for it.
Phil
1:00
Do you think WAR understates the value of the best players? fWAR says that if you replaced Judge with a replacement player the Yankees would hace the same record as the Rays, 64-67. But to watch them you feel like they'd be closer to Orioles-level.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
WAR is always just an approximation, and the actual identity of the player who would replace a given guy varies from team to team. We've seen what the 2025 Yankees look like without Judge — an outfield of Dominguez, Grisham, and Bellinger with Stanton DHing — and they could do a whole lot worse than that. As for the comparison to the Orioles, the Yankees have much better pitching.
Steve
1:05
What's going on with Luis Arraez? His Zone% is higher than it ever has been, so pitchers simply aren't scared to pitch to him, but his average, BABIP, wRC+, Barrel rate and nearly all traditional  and advanced statistics are way down this year. In 2025 he just can't seem to convert the same pitches into equivalent results the way he did in 2022-2024. What am i missing in the stats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
he's not swinging as hard as in the past, so he's not hitting the ball as hard. His chase rate is at a career high, as is his O-Contract rate, which is up from 89.2% to 93.4% this year. I'd have to check to be sure in his case but that's almost always bad news in terms of outcomes.
Insert Witty Name Here
1:07
Happy birthday to your daughter! How is parenthood treating you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
Thanks! Parenting isn't easy, but I love it. It's amazing the way kids take to some of the interests you share with them (in our case things like Lego, dinosaurs, space travel, Edward Gorey, sushi, and a generally macabre sense of humor) and develop their own interests as well.
WinTwins0410
1:10
Jay, happy b-day to your daughter and as always thanks for doing these chats. Looking ahead to December's Contemporary Era Committee vote (and I promise this isn't a request for a comment on the Current Occupant's ridiculous advocacy to put the Rocket in the Hall): If I try to construct the ballot, feels like I already have 7 of the 8 slots taken up -- and that's before considering Whitaker or Dewey (who both got breakout Contemp Era votes in the past). I think the ballot has to include newcomers Sheffield and Kent, and then also Dale, Donnie Baseball and Schilling, who all got breakout amounts in 2023, plus likely Bonds and Clemens. Does that sound right to you? That leaves just one slot for Lou, Dwight, Palmeiro and Albert Belle (lol). Or maybe those final 6 (Barry, Roger, Whitaker, Evans and Rafael) vie for the 3 remaining slots. Do you think it's safe to assume that we'll see Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Mattingly and Schilling all on that ballot? Seems like it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
It's going to be very tough to build that ballot for reasons that you point out — and I hate that, since both Evans nd Whitaker deserve much longer looks than they've been given. Wouldn't surprise me if Murphy (37.5% last time) s one of the odd men out, and I highly doubt they include Palmeiro or Belle given past performance and baggage. So: Bonds, Clemens, Kent, Sheffield, Schilling, Mattingly (50% last time and you know they are dying to get him in), Evans, Whitaker maybe? Good luck with that one
CleGuy
1:13
Would it be fair to say that the Guardians have squandered José Ramírez? I feel like no front office has been given a bigger leg up, and yet they consistently struggle to build around him.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
While their skimping on payroll and trading players early hasn't helped their cause, I think "squandered" is unfair. They have off years but they've generally been competitive in the AL Central during his career, and have reached the playoffs six times over the past decade with him in the lineup, including the 2016 World Series. They got to the ALCS last year and lost two ALDS Game 5s to the Yankees (2017, 2022) that would have sent them to the ALCS a couple more times.
CleGuy
1:17
How many Gold Gloves would Steven Kwan have to win in order to make a Hall of Fame case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
26
1:18
(I kid, of course). Kwan is an elite left field defender, with 58 DRS in four seasons (ages 24-27), but even so, he's got just one season worth more than 4.0 bWAR so I'd be skeptical that he'll have a strong Hall case once he more fully fills out his career
Guest
1:19
Can you explain to me why Othani has a 0 war for pitching on Baseball Reference and a 1.1 on Fangrpahs? Which one is more accurate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
it's not that one is more accurate than the other, it's that you're choosing between a model that attempts to adjust for defense and opponent offense and is based on the actual runs allowed (bWAR) and a model that is independent of defense (fWAR). To these eyes, the answer is somewhere in the middle as Ohtani has been dinked to death, with a .378 BABIP that includes a ton of soft contact. Stamina has been an issue, as has the patchwork defensive lineup behind him.
drplantwrench
1:22
trouts obviously a first ballot hall of famer, but based on history do you think he has a chance of a later career resurgence? or is he going slowly sizzle out? what type of career achievements do you think he ends up with?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
A subject I'll touch on in next week's HOF progress installment and perhaps at length in a separate piece at some point. He's currently hitting for a 120 wRC+ with 20 HR and 1.5 fWAR/1.2 bWAR. he's been a bit unlucky, batted ball-wise, so I imagine we're looking at a player capable of 2-3 WAR per year, maybe more if he's fully healthy and trusts his body.
Phil
1:25
What do you think will become of Buehler? If he has some success in the bullpen, will he or should he just try to build a second career as a reliever, Eckersley-style, or go back to starting as soon as possible? The Red Sox having essentially three healthy and reliable starters seems relevant to this question. . .
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
I expect he'll try to find work as a starter for as long as he can but wouldn't surprise me if he emerges as a very good reliever.
Idle wonderings
1:26
Do you think David Cone ever makes the Hall? (I was reminded of this by the question from the mailbag about multiple HoF pitchers on the same team. I think he overlapped with a few)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
very long shot given the bottleneck for making the ballot and the backlog of other viable candidates
Travis
1:27
Zack Wheeler getting thoracic outlet surgery is definitely not what you want to see. Fair to say that, in addition to sucking for both him and baseball fans in general, this becomes another sizable hurdle in his HoF case? That cuts out at least a year of counting stats, if not more.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
It's very possibly a mortal blow to his (already tenuous) Hall of Fame chances. One thing I think it's worth pointing out — but I didn't see mentioned in the coverage of his injury (and didn't include it in mine) — is that he's repeatedly said he'll retire after his contract expires in 2027, his age-37 season. That itself would diminish his Hall chances by leaving his already-low counting stats even lower. We'll see if the surgery and rehab changes his perspective. Hoping for the best, obviously
drplantwrench
1:30
another question on trout: is he one of the unluckiest "Greatest of All Time" guys? he had to deal with pujols turning into a pumpkin, the josh hamilton fiasco, tyler skaggs, the rendon signing, getting injured anually right when shohei turns into an MVP, and on top of that dealing with arte
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
you can pretty much file this under ARTE MORENO BUILT THIS TEAM ON AN ANCIENT BURIAL GROUND AND IS PAYING FOR THAT SIN
1:31
it's an absolute horror show when you lay it out like that
Sirras
1:31
Can you remember a guy for us? Not a star, just a guy
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
Vicente Romo, 1970s reliever whose brother was more famous (part of the World Series-winning 1979 Pirates' bullpen). Didn't appear in the majors between 1975 and 1981, then at age 39 suddenly popped up on the 1982 Dodgers for 15 appearances including six starts.

H/T to Adam Darowski, who posted about Romo on Bluesky last week.
Mike Trout Mask Replica
1:33
The 2008 Tigers are another collection of good players that were surprisingly bad. It was Miggy's first year with Detroit, and they also added Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria to a team that had barely missed the playoffs the prior season. They also had Pudge, Placido Polanco, Carlos GUillen, Curtis Granderson, and Gary Sheffield; and a starting rotation that also included Verlander, Kenny Rogers nad Jeremy Bonderman. And they only won 74 games!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
Good call, migh be 3 HOFers there
bringbackpologrounds
1:33
Re: Underachieving teams. ARod, Griffey, Edgar, Big Unit, Moyer Mariners were 76-85 in 1998 (Randy traded midseason). They were fresh off of a playoff appearance; all 5 were healthy.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
another very good one.
Izzy
1:34
Cal Raleigh has 21.2 fWAR in 4 seasons. Yadier Molina had 55.6 fWAR in his entire career. CAL is way ahead of Molina's WAR pace. How likely is he a HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
He's put himself on the radar. I did write a few sentences about him in the first installment of the Hall progress thing, linked above. We'll see if he warrants a longer writeup next year!
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