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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. Apologies that it's been a few weeks since my last one. Deadlines and summer travel will do that. Anyway, I'm currently working on a piece checking in on the seasons of the Boras Four, none of which has proceeded as planned, and on Monday I looked into Shohei Ohtani's 40-homer, 40-steal feat, his odds of getting to 50-50 (thanks to Dan Szymborski), and some other 30-30 and 40-40 (!) candidates https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-joins-the-40-40-club-in-gran...
And now, on with the show...
Eli
2:04
In a previous chat you mentioned how the Yankees and Gleyber need to move on from each other. Do you think Gleyber's career is salvageable elsewhere? And from the outside is there something about how the Yankees develop young players (not named Judge) that seems broken?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
Yes, I think Torres is salvageable. He's only 27 years old, and he's shown the ability to play at an above-average clip as recently as last year (and he's been better since the All-Star break, .273/.354/.406, 117 wRC+).
2:09
I don't think there's anything particularly damning about the Yankees' development of young players, even for all the shrill screeching about Anthony Volpe's slumps. He's put up 3.5 WAR this year despite his offensive inconsistency, and if he's merely a plus defender with a position-average bat, that's still a pretty solid outcome. Austin Wells has panned out nicely on both sides of the ball, Ben Rice not so much (but his stock was much lower). Peraza's injuries have gotten in the way. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt have been good outcomes
Who's Fabio
2:09
Hi Jay - thank for the chat.  What happens to official stats after yesterday's Jays - Boston game as it is a continuation of a game in June.  It was technically Chad Green's 3rd save of the year I think so does someone have to adjust all the stats in the boxscores after?  Does Jimenez's playing time get started in June now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
the stats are credited to the day that the game originated, which means they'll show up in any splits that involved that date as well. It's a major headache here and I know it is for B-Ref as well. It does not reset a player's service clock; it might add one service day if the player was only rostered for the continuation but not the origin.
2:12
Interestingly enough, Barry Bonds' debut happened in the completion of a suspended game. He made his real debut on May 30, 1986, and then on August 11 that year played in the completion of a suspended game from April 20. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN198604200.shtml
Rob
2:13
After a horrific start to the season, both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya have been torrid in the second half. If you're the Cubs, are you comfortable going into 2025 with them as starters?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
Moreso with PCA than Amaya. So long as Cody Bellinger is a Cub — and I don't think this is a good enough platform year to justify exercising the first of his two opt-outs — the Cubs have a good alternative in center field. They're weak at catcher, however, and should really bring in a better player who could serve either as a backup or regular. There are a lot of those heading for free agency including Gary Sanchez and Mr. Two Teams, Danny Jansen
Dancing Dan McGrew
2:18
what's more special - Ohtani doing the 50/50 club or Judge hitting 62 again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
The former, as it's unprecedented and hasn't been closely approximated. Judge has hit 62 before; 63 or a few more than that isn't as big a stretch. But jeez, it's pretty damn impressive and I hope we get both feats
Sirras
2:19
What is the most exciting play in baseball and why is it the triple?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
It's the inside-the-park home run, which is a supersized triple.
Jason N
2:20
As a Padres fan I get to watch Arraez play every night.  I love the batting average and bat-to-ball skills.  But it’s the emptiest batting average I’ve ever seen.  I think every other part of his game (baserunning, defense, power, etc.) is below average to terrible. If gets to 3k hits and a pile of batting titles could he get any serious HoF traction?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
If he gets to 3,000 hits he'll be a Hall of Famer. But he won't get to 3,000 hits because he lacks the secondary skills that will keep him around. A 700-OPS DH/infielder doesn't have many places to hide once he drops a few more points of OPS.
Thank you for the chat!
2:21
What kind of offer do you give Soto if you want to keep him on the Yanks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
Manhattan, the Bronx, and Staten Island (Queens belongs to the Mets, Brooklyn isn't up for grabs).
Jeremy
2:23
Apologies if this has already been asked in a recent chat but: since Willie Mays passed away, who is the greatest living Hall of Famer? Mike Schmidt? Rickey Henderson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
The Athletic's Tyler Kepner and I had a fun text exchange where it turned out that my conclusion (Schmidt or Henderson) matched his. We both leaned Schmidt, in part because of his #1 position in JAWS at 3B (Henderson is behind Bonds and Ted Williams in LF). But I think Albert Pujols will take that spot when he becomes eligible on the 2028 ballot.
Porcho Villa
2:27
Any encouraging signs under the hood for Torkelson after his thus-far-successful-over-a-small-sample return to the majors?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
it's only nine games but I see a higher EV and hard-hit rate, double the barrel rate as before, better walk and strikeout rates, much better slash line. It's an encouraging start but I wouldn't get too crazy about it yet
Almost there
2:29
Judge is .1 WAR from 50WAR7. But my question is, everyone says, barring a Chris Davis or Ryan Howard situation, yet isn't it true that those guys were never anywhere close to as good at their best? To me a Judge decline is more partial seasons rather than hitting like those guys. Barring absolute disaster he will get himself to a peak-heavy 60 jaws around the Reggie level.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Davis and Howard weren't anything close to Judge. Both had prodigous power, but they were terrible first basemen, with negative value on the basepaths as well. Each had just one season worth at least 5.0 bWAR. Judge was a plus defender in right field and is adequate enough in center for the time being. He has six seasons more than 5.0 bWAR, and is pressing towards his second of at least 10.0.
Dirk Funk
2:33
The Brewers had an MLB best -0.48 ERA/FIP differential last year. This year they are tops again with a -0.61 differential. So why is Depth Charts projecting a -0.01 differential rest of season? Isn't that maybe a little over-regressed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
I don't know how much regression we build into that but one singe-team year-to-year example isn't enough to convince me we're doing it wrong.
Dirk Funk
2:36
Corbin Burnes K%+ has declined from 153 to 135 to 115 to literal average 100 so far this year. Will this push his contract closer to Nola money ($172M) than Strasburg cash ($245M)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
it might cost him some money but i wonder if it's a matter of self- and team-preservation. He's averaging 3.78 pitches per plate appearance, down from 3.92 last year and 4.09 the year before, and it's helped him maintain an innings-per start rate above 6. Orioles starters are dropping like flies; they can't afford to lose him so maybe asking him to pitch to contact just a bit more isn't the worst idea
Birdfan
2:39
Ryne Nelson looks good. Velocity up and visually more confident. Do you think he has front of rotation potential?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
No. He's a command-over-stuff guy with a strikeout rate just south of 20% and a penchant for loud contact. He was projected as a fourth starter; maybe he's a third starter if he does a better job of suppressing contact but I don't think he has the stuff to expand his ceiling much higher.
steve
2:41
Is Chris Sale a more likely HOFer than Gerrit Cole now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
No, because Cole is younger (though only by about 18 months)  and more importantly healthier. He actually has the edge in some counting stats (but not WAR/JAWS) and already has a Cy Young. I think he's a better bet.
DBacks Heater
2:44
Inspired by Josh Bell's 8 GIDP in 21 DBacks games: at what point is taking a backwards K  or starting runners early (and potentially lining into a DP) preferable when a player with such a tendency is batting? It's crazy to complain about squandered DBacks scoring opportunities, but that's borderline (if not outright) untenable
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
the strikeouts are the most desirable of those unpalatable outcomes, but this is who Bell is. Interestingly enough, he's just 2 runs below average in B-Ref's Double Play Avoidance WAR component (-1 pre- and post-trade apiece).
Sirras
2:48
Are there any players you enjoy watching from an aesthetic standpoint, regardless of their on-field contributions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I always love to watch Francisco Lindor play shortstop, and likewise Machado and Arenado at third base (when they're healthy). Watching Elly run the bases is always a treat. And I love just about everything about Mookie Betts' game.
Zach
2:50
So Gavin Lux just decided to start swinging harder and trust his hand-eye, and it turned him into an elite hitter? Please tell me this is sustainable? Is anyone at Fangraphs going to write about him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
if nobody else takes up Lux I will, one of these days. Based on what Joe Davis and colleagues have said on air (esp Orel Hershiser), I think his improvement has a whole lot to do with finally being able to trust his surgically-repaired right knee.
Travis
2:53
Would it surprise you to learn Schwellenbach has been better than Skenes since July 1? I don’t think there’s been enough talk about how good he’s been, especially considering the lack of experience. He has almost as many major league innings as he does minor and college combined.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Spencer has been pretty Schwell and has the lower FIP and better walk rate, but Skenes has the lower ERA and home run rate. Still a pretty impressive and overlooked stretch. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al...
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