JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/29/19

Jay Jaffe

12:02

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. While I wait for the queue to fill, a couple of housekeeping notes. First off, either next week or the week after, I will be migrating my chat to another day, not because I don't love you Thursday regulars (well, most of you) but because my daughter's preschool schedule requires a bit of juggling responsibilities within our household. People always ask, "Won't somebody think of the children?" and here, I have.

12:03

So please do not be shocked if my next chat is on, like, a Monday or a Tuesday (the day is still TBD). Embrace the change.

12:04

Second, my piece on Aaron Judge's recent hot streak, and the great team home run race between the Twins and Yankees, is up here. I think I set a personal best for bells and whistles — GIFs, vids, tables, spray charts — added to a piece, and so you will have plenty of things to entertain you but most notably, a Judge sentencing baseballs to die. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-judge-is-mercilessly-punishing-baseb...

stever20

12:05

what do you think is wrong with Jansen?

Jay Jaffe

12:06

Velocity. Via Pitch Info, here's his progression for his cutter:
2016 94.2
2017 93.5
2018 92.7
2019 92.1

12:07

That's two full clicks gone, and with it some movement — about 2 inches of horizontal movement and an inch of vertical movement. Not great, Bob!

12:08

Now, how much of that is mechanical versus physical, I don't know, but it's a pretty big deal for the Dodgers, perhaps the biggest one facing them over the next two months

Bebo

12:10

Which rebuilder do you think is most likely to make a Braves-like jump to the playoffs next year?

Jay Jaffe

12:12

IMO, it comes down to the Padres and White Sox. The path to the playoffs might be a bit easier in the AL given that I am not so sure the Indians are going to remain a force, but that's just dart-throwing. It's a question worth a closer look

Al Gone Quinn

12:13

Is Aquino an on base machine? Has reached base safely (H, BB, HBP) in 23 of his last 24 games.

Jay Jaffe

12:15

not with that walk rate (7.8% in MLB, 6-7% in upper minors). He's got power for days, but his plate discipline has been a weakness in the past.

Here it's worth remembering that Orlando Cabrera had a 63-game on-base streak in 2006, a year that he had a .335 OBP. It happens but that doesn't mean it was likely to happen.

!!!

12:16

So, do you think the Red Sox have a realistic chance of sneaking into a wild card slot? Which of the other contending teams seem most vulnerable (in your opinion)?

Jay Jaffe

12:18

They're 5 games out of the 2nd WC and four behind the Rays, whom they visit for four games in late September. Their playoff odds are at 9.8%. They seem to have finally come up with a competent bullpen but their rotation is falling apart. A chance? Yes. A realistic chance? Not so much.

I am not bullish on the Mets remaining in contention based upon what I've seen over the past 5 days. Woof.

Steaming Hot Fajitas

12:20

If the Astros or Dodgers don't reach the World Series, it'll be considered a disappointment. Can the same be said for any other teams?

Jay Jaffe

12:21

Well, the Yankees are the only other team with more than a 10% chance of winning the WS according to our odds — 13.5%, so double that for reaching. Clearly not a sure thing, but high enough that there's gonna be some heartache if they fall short

Nick

12:22

The last 10 runs that Kershaw and Verlander have given up have come via solo HRs. How long until we can go back to a de-juiced ball?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

it really is telling just how far out of whack things are when these guys are posting great K/BB ratios and getting punished for pounding the strike zone anyway by the occasional long ball. I'll bet we see a different ball next spring, but whether MLB/Rawlings will utter a peep about it is less likely

Guest

12:23

Mark Cahna is pulling the pull more and swing less outside the zone, you do believe in the breakout?

Jay Jaffe

12:26

I had a bit about him in yesterday's ESPN Plus/Insider thing (https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/27479047/which-mlb-most-im...), revisiting last week's Most Improved Position Players list - he replaced Tim Anderson. I noted within that while he had increased his pull rate significantly, the thing about that is that teams counter it with more shifts, which will take a bite out of the ol' BABIP sooner or later. It's good that he's chasing less and walking more, so i think some of the improvement will stick, just not all of it, particularly at his age (30).

v2micca

12:26

Which do you think has hurt Jansen's cutter more, losing 2 clicks or losing 2 inches of movement?

Jay Jaffe

12:29

They go hand in hand, generally the pitch will move less with less velo, but we know batters can hit the everloving **** out of a straight fastball, so the movement might be more important. The trend, however, is being driven by the velo loss.

Derek

12:30

Does Trout have a reasonable shot at retiring as the home run king?

Jay Jaffe

12:32

beyond his own health and well-being, i guess some of that depends on how much the baseball changes. If he gets to 50 this year (needs 7), and plays through age 42, he would need to average 31.5 a year the rest of the way. Which seems doable IF — and I cannot stress this enough — he remains healthy.

Guest

12:32

Joe Musgrobe will finish with about 160ish innings pitched and 3ish WAR. If you’re the Red Sox, wanting to get back to the playoffs and compete in October, and I can guarantee you that Joe Musgrove posts those exact numbers next season, would you take 2020 Musgrove over Chris Sale and his uncertainty?

Jay Jaffe

12:36

There's an old Bill James study that maybe he repeated more than once but the take-home is that the guy with the higher upside and higher variance is going to add more championships in the long run. The Red Sox have Sale under contract anyway, but they'll need to replace Porcello, and aiming for a Musgrave type seems realistic given their payroll constraints.

Trent

12:37

The playoff hopes for the Phillies and Mets are looking pretty dim. Which team has a better chance of making the playoffs in 2020?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

I'll go with the Mets here because Syndergaard's laid egg last night notwithstanding, they have a stronger rotation foundation to return to than the Phillies.

12:38

On Mookie Betts, which WAR value do you think is closer to the truth: bWAR or fWAR? Based on some statcast info, my guess is that fWAR is doing a better job of sorting out his defense from Jackie Bradley's.

Jay Jaffe

12:39

It depends what you're trying to measure. DRS strives to account for as much as it can based on what happened while UZR builds in a lot more regression. Which flavor you prefer is a matter of task and taste.

v2micca

12:40

I keep hearing intelligent people speculate that Ronald Acuña could one day be the player to knock Trout off of the best player in baseball throne. I freaking love Acuña and love watching the kid play. But, is he really that good, or are we setting up unrealistic expectations for him?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

I love Acuña but I think that's a stretch. He's at 4.9 WAR this year, Trout was at 10.1 at age 21, and has basically reeled off 10-win type seasons every year like he can just copy them at Kinko's. Sparky Anderson's line about Johnny Bench and Thurman Munson in the 1976 World Series applies. "Don’t ever compare nobody to Johnny Bench; don’t never embarrass nobody by comparing them to Johnny Bench.”

Roger

12:44

Is there anything that could happen to prevent Trout from winning the AL MVP?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

A bout of DJ LeMahieu Fever, though the likelihood is probably less if he doesn't win the batting title or, y'know, turns back into DJ LeMahieu.

Cove Dweller

12:45

Am I correct to assume that John Sherman will have to sell off his interest in Cleveland in order to purchase KCR?

Jay Jaffe

12:46

Yes, he absolutely has to divest

Bigbopper

12:46

How many teams do you think Randal Grichuk is an everyday starter? Had an argument with friends the other day, curious what your estimate is

Jay Jaffe

12:47

Not many, if he's putting up a 0.5 WAR season. That's not just second-division regular territory, that's last place/rebuild placeholder, so you're maybe talking about half a dozen teams, most of whom will come up with better ideas later in the year anyway.

v2micca

12:48

I was thinking, if Ohtani could effectively field a corner position, would an effective use of him be to start him in the field, have him take over pitching for one or two high leverage outs starting in the 5th inning. Move him back to his position, and then continue bringing him in as needed for high leverage outs for the rest of the game?

Jay Jaffe

12:50

IIRC, you lose the DH once you move a position player to the mound, so that's a problem. So is the assumption that Ohtani or any player is going to be so rubber-armed that you can just send him to the mound willy nilly several times without worrying about the physical effects (beyond his normal pitch count) seems to be a stretch.

12:50

How do you prefer to pick the question you answer? Most relatable to other chat members? Areas you can provide best insight? Easiest to answer? I imagine most FG guys have different answers

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