JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/29/19

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Jay Jaffe

12:51

like Abe Simpson, a little from Column A, a little from Column B, and so on. Usually it's areas of best insight (very few prospect questions and almost no fantasy one) driving the choice, but I also pick the low-hanging fruit if I can be succinct, insightful and/or funny.

Gila Monster

12:52

Say a Statcast records a player with an elite sprint speed(98th percentile), but scouts put a 55 on his speed. How should I resolve that difference?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

If it's Statcast, I want to know sample size before I answer that, but considering that speed grades are generally based on time to first base, I'm very skeptical this is actually a situation that comes up often

Pie

12:54

I know it's early, but how do you see Bregman's beginning stage HOF outlook?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

He's 25 and banking his second season of 6+ bWAR. That's pretty solid. 2 minutes in B-Ref says there's 42 guys who have done that 2x through age 25, and I count 16 of them in the Hall (some are not yet eligible, or even active). The frequency obviously goes up as you add the # of 6-win seasons.

Cito's Mustache

12:59

Do you think Cavan Biggio will ever be more than what he currently is? As in a low AVG, 20/20 threat who walks a ton? Basically a 2 WAR player.

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Our prospect guys put a 40 FV grade on him just this past spring, which translates to a bench guy in the 0-0.7 WAR range, so being a 2-win guy, implying a 50 FV grade, would be a very positive outcome. But if he keeps slugging .362, he's not going to get there.

Chris Antonetti

1:01

Do I pick up Corey Kluber's option for 2020?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

For most teams, a $13.5 million option with a $1 million buyout — with another $14 million option tacked on if you pick that up — should be a no-brainer to pick up, particularly given the eroding state of the free agent market. Now, the Indians know more about Kluber's medicals than anybody, which may given them additional insight as to how likely he is to bounce back from his early-season struggles. They also are pretty damn cheap, so maybe they screw this up even if the medicals are good, but I think they keep him

Matt

1:03

What's your take on the spat this week between Sean Rodriguez and the Phillies fans?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

For as good as it may feel to vent like Rodriguez did, no player is ever going to win that war. The mob remains undefeated.

Alan

1:05

Russell Martin and Brian McCann are both among the top 10 catchers in career WAR; a lot of that is defense. I'm a little skeptical ... In your opinion, are they legit HOF candidates?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

I'm definitely in the minority on this one but given how much we've learned about framing, I don't think it's implausible at all, and wrote about it back in the spring https://blogs.fangraphs.com/framing-the-hall-of-fame-cases-for-martin-.... I don't think you can elevate Yadier Molina beyond the stats to "must-have HOFer" without doing the same for them.

By the time they're eligible, we'll have a better perspective on what we might call the Peak Framing era and may have also found ways to tease out pitch framing pre-1988 based on WOWY strikeout and walk rate models, not to mention staff handling. Obviously, the effects won't be as large because of the noise level and need for regression but that kind of stuff might show us how rare their accomplishments are.

Matt

1:09

Update: The Yankees are 8 HRs behind the Twins.

Jay Jaffe

1:10

From today's Judge piece

twowood

1:10

is the ball really juiced? or simply the victim (?) of better manufacturing process? seems like that is a huge question. if juiced, simply revert. if the 'pill' or whatever is now perfectly spherical and centered and removes the randomness from ball to ball, how do you reasonably walk that back? or have i missed this discussion somewhere?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

As Meredith Wills has said, "juiced" is a loaded term because it implies intent, Has the ball changed? Yes, demonstrably, and due to several changes in the way that it's manufactured that were intended to be improvements. Was it a conscious attempt to increase the number of homers? Eh, i think the more plausible explanation is that when the changes yielded more homers, MLB went along with it instead of thinking too hard about the ramifications, and now we're several steps down the road and appearing to need some intervention. How that will happen, I don't know, but tweaking the pill, the yarn, the drying process, and so on — there are a lot of points of entry. The reality is that they need to be tested. Does anybody have the phone number for the commissioner of the Atlantic League?

Guest

1:15

Would you pick up Corey Kluber's option in 2020?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Yes.

Guest

1:15

I meant independent of long-term or contract considerations, would you rather bet on Sale next year or take 160 above-average innings

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Sale, unless the medicals show me otherwise.

Sicnarf Loopstok

1:16

Are we seeing the last of Rougned Odor in Texas?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

He's signed through 2022 but been an utterly terrible player for 2 years out of 3. It's not that much money to consider him a sunk cost and move on but they can't seem to quit him.

Dfan

1:18

I'm very impressed with May's two-seamer, both speed and movement. Do you think he should throw it more and not try to work in his other pitches so much?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

He's throwing it 49% of the time, per Pitch Info. That's probably too much — only 5 guys with at least 80 IP are throwing it that frequently: Chirinos, Arrieta, Davies, Lucchesi, and Matz. Also, it seems pretty silly to tell a 21-year-old top prospect to stop working on other pitches; he's a talented youngster but not a finished product.

Just for FanGraphs

1:22

Do teams still abuse the 10 day IL with starters this season. I remember hearing about it all the time in 2017, particularly with the Dodgers, and don’t think I’ve been seeing it lately, but I can’t think of any reason why they wouldn’t do that (loophole abusing aside).

Jay Jaffe

1:22

I haven't seen the numbers for this year but the perception/belief that teams were abusing it is one reason why the IL minimum will go back to 15 days next year.

Gila Monster

1:22

But wouldn’t even a couple Statcast times be a larger sample than the scouting go sample size? Don’t scout typically grade speed and pop time on sample sizes of a game or two and assume they are relatively consistent unless they hear someone with radically different results. My examples are Tim Locastro and Lane Thomas.

Jay Jaffe

1:24

By the time a guy is drafted and reaches a prospect list, he has been subjected to far more than one or two games worth of scouting. Amateur scouts, pro scouts, cross checkers, prospect evaluators... the list is long.

1:24

The Cubs play the Cardinals 10 times in their last 13 games. This will make for some pretty exciting series, but isn't that a bit much? Seems the schedule keeps getting stranger and stranger with the unbalanced schedule.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

it seems that every year people cite one high-concentration September pairing as proof that unbalanced schedules don't work, but let me tell you, the only thing worse than an unbalanced schedule is a balanced one, as the AL had in the 1980s. That's hot garbage even before you consider the additional air miles teams have to log. With a playoff spot on the line, would you rather the Cubs and Cardinals were getting more games against the Marlins and Padres in September instead of duking it out?

3 in 5

1:27

Discussing players who have no business being mentioned being anywhere near the HOF has become a thing. Martin and McCann? Refer back to aforementioned Sparky quote. I feel better now.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Don't embarrass this question by comparing it to the one above.

Trevor

1:29

Is speed the most underappreciated aspect of Cody Bellinger's game? He's second in MLB in home to first time, per Statcast.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Speed and athleticism, yes. He's a hell of an outfielder.

Jaf Jayye

1:30

What happens first - a winning season in Baltimore or Trump impeachment?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

A new president.

Wilson

1:30

The Pirates and Rockies start a series today; which of those teams has been more disappointing? And which has higher hopes for next year?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

The Rockies, who made the playoffs in back to back seasons and appeared to have one of the strongest rotation cores in the game. It's all fallen apart.

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