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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/29/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon folks, and welcome to the last August edition of my chat for 2023!
2:03
I'm a bit giddy because as of 20 minutes ago, we have accepted offers on our current and future homes in Brooklyn
2:04
it's been a journey, folks
2:05
anyway, yesterday I ran a piece on Félix Bautista's UCL injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-great-summer-ends-with-a-bummer-as-the-o.... Still no word on the severity of it, but I wouldn't really read into that as good news. The Orioles aren't the most transparent bunch when it comes to injuries or... other matters
2:06
I've got a piece on Bryce Harper's resurgence that's about to go live
Anyway, let's get to this one...
HOF Harper?
2:06
With Bryce approaching 300 HRs and his career being.. interesting(?) thus far with a couple amazing seasons, a couple underwhelming seasons, and quite a few certainly good not necessarily great seasons.. What is the view on him through your HOF lenses?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
The short version is that he's lost some time due to injuries, the pandemic, and whatnot, but he's banked two MVP awards nonetheless, finally reached a World Series (no small matter) and appears to be on the other side of a serious injury now
2:12
his career/peak/JAWS (45.0/36.2/40.6) is rather top-heavy thanks to his 9.7-WAR 2015, and he actually has just three five-win seasons, but that's left him a lot of low-hanging fruit within that peak score. With last night's homer, he's now at 2.5 WAR, matching last year for h is seventh-best season, so whatever he does through the rest of the year will raise that score, and he very well could reach 40.0 peak next year
which as I've noted, generally means a future HOFer
TKDC
2:12
Ha-Seong Kim is a free agent after next year, is he going to sign for $250 million and casual sports fans are going to say “who the hell is that guy?”
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
No, I don't think he's going to get that kind of money, because so much of his value is tied up in defense, and because he doesn't hit the ball that hard.
2:14
Wouldn't surprise me if he breaks nine figures IF his 2024 looks like his 2023, but if he regresses to 2022 form, that will put a damper on things
Fletcher
2:14
Do you think all-star appearances from the double all-star game years should be counted as 1 per year or is Stan Musial and Willie Mays having more all-star appearances than seasons too much fun?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
It's funny that there were only four years in which two All-Star Games were played (1959-62), but it was such a golden age that a lot of inner-circle types were affected. In the Cooperstown Casebook I only single-counted All-Star years; most of the time, the rosters were pretty similar for both games.
paulie Eff
2:16
This time of year ROS projections amount to one week, if you’re fighting for a playoff spot.  Is it appropriate to cut a struggling future HoF catcher like Sal Perez on a morbid Royals club for a guy on a hot streak with a equally hot team around him, like Cal Raleigh?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
you absolutely lost me by putting "future HOF catcher" and "Sal Perez" in the same sentence.
2:18
and not to go all pedantic but I think you mean moribund rather than morbid, though i guess that could describe the Royals too
I don't really deal with fantasy questions much but I'd say punt on Perez and go with Raleigh. how bad can it be?
Phil
2:18
Is the title a Kinks reference? If so, favourite album?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Yes, thank you for noticing! I'm not sure whether I'd call Village Green Preservation Society my favorite Kinks album but it's on the short list along with Something Else and Face to Face, with Muswell Hillbillies just outside that frame
JC
2:20
Sad last couple of weeks for baseball but a ton of cool articles have come out on FG recently to help me from getting too down about the season.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
Glad you're enjoying it! I am consistently impressed by the quality of the work coming from my colleagues. It pushes me to work harder, for sure.
Sean
2:21
If Julio keeps this up, can he get into the MVP conversation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
It's great to see what Julio is doing but the AL MVP award is almost certainly going to Ohtani, quite probably unanimously
Byron Denniston
2:23
What are your thoughts on The Future of TJ surgery?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
so long as velocity drives the equation in scouting — a situation only exacerbated by the contraction of the minor leagues, since it means fewer pitchers have room to develop — the future will be full of TJs. I'm hopeful that surgeons are getting better at TJ revisions since we seem to be getting a lot more high-profile pitchers receiving more of them, and that at least some of the situations wind up being able to use the UCL internal brace procedure, kind of a TJ lite with less time to recover.
Gold Star for Robot Boy
2:25
With Gonsolin and Dustin May out for 2024, Kershaw at even odds to either return, retire, or sign with the Rangers, and Ohtani's future as a pitcher in doubt, what do the Dodgers do for a rotation next season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
/me heads to bullpen
2:28
I think they pick up Lance Lynn's option, issue a qualifying offer to Urías and hope that he accepts (plenty of incentive to do so, esp since he won't be able to get a 2nd one), pray that they can coax Kershaw back and get maybe 120 good innings out of Buehler. Miller and Pepiot both playing big roles, with Stone and/or Grove on the outskirts (a trade of one of those wouldn't surprise me)
Mike M
2:28
Hey Jay, I am still in mourning over the Shohei TJ news.  I'm very VERY afraid that he will just never be peak Shohei again.  No question here. Just wanted a shoulder to cry on.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I hear you. It's a bummer! The good news is that Ohtani is still an elite hitter, and given time to recover should resume being one. As for the pitching, we're all going to have to hold our breaths for the next year and hope it all unfolds well. The important thing with a 2nd TJ — if indeed that's what he needs — is not to rush back, and he's pretty well positioned for that assuming he doesn't try to work up to game speed in 2024
Eric
2:32
Any thoughts on how Wilmer Flores is having a career year at age 31?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
No, not really. he's not hitting the ball very hard at all, but is 91 points ahead of his .447 xSLG. Deserves a closer look
Sodo Mojo
2:33
Given that high school catchers are rarely successful transitioning to the major leagues and the limited shelf life of elite catchers due to the rigors of the position do you see hall of fame catchers becoming increasingly rare as we move forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I think a lot is going to depend on the timeline and form of the coming robot umps. Right now it looks far less likely we'll get a full automatic ball and strike system, which would have turned framing into a thing of the past, and more likely we'll get a challenge system. It remains to be seen how the rule changes regarding increased stolen base rates impact the talent pool, as in if we see more strong throwing arms tracked there. But I'm not terribly worried about the future of the position
Guest
2:36
Jay, with free agency and the higher frequency of blockbuster trades do you see more players going into the hall without a logo on their caps. Verlander, Betts, Arenado, Freeman, and Goldschmidt being some possibilities of the top of my head.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
it would not at all surprise me if more players go that route. in recent years we've seen Maddux, Mussina, Halladay, McGriff and LaRussa go in logo-free, whereas I think Catfish Hunter was the only modern player before that (players from the earlier days and Negro Leagues don't often have them)
But Betts will wear an LA, mark my words
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