Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/4/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
A lot of it is about the postseason but look at how many question marks the Dodgers have right now: Will Snell and Glasnow stay healthy? When are we going to see Ohtani pitch again? Is Wrobleski out of gas yet, or will he be soon? (one of those seems to be yes). Skubal isn't going to be the difference between making the playoffs and not, but he could help them get the top seed, and then yes, he'll be a particularly prominent pitcher in the postseason.

Beyond them, I like the Cubs' additions of Gausman and Holmes a lot in terms of how banged up that group is, and the Padres' addition of Mize and Ray, in the latter case because everybody on the bubble there has been sooo bad.
greenejoshua
12:47
It feels like the Sox overpaid for Adley, but I also find it hard to believe they didn't offer that package or something similar for Goodman (who I think would have been better FWIW). If this just was the cost of doing business to make that big of an upgrade behind the plate/in the lineup, kind of hard to fault Breslow?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
The Andrew Friedman line about if you approach every deal rationally you'll finish third applies here. Not every prospect traded pans out, but the sign of a fair deal for premium talent is that it should make you wince a bit. You're balancing present opportunity with future needs, and the Red Sox have done so much over the past month with a flawed roster that they deserved that kind of shot at an upgrade.
reallyfreshblueberry
12:49
how much more work are yall doing during these crazy periods?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
There was a point yesterday while writing up May that I couldn't type a complete sentence without making like 3 typos. My hands felt like flippers
12:52
it's the busiest time of year and in some cases the most fun, particularly when you see the way OUR team works together. Here's the stuff on prospects, here are the projections (if needed), here's the Killers list showing how badly this team needed a left fielder, here's a link to what Clemens or Baumann or whoever wrote about this guy's addition of a new pitch...
Angelsjunky
12:52
Is it just me or are prospect packages overall a bit down this year? Possibly due to (possible) impending lock-out, or just higher valuation of prospects?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
I'm going to leave that assessment to Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski. But I do think that with few true studs changing teams, yeah, there were fewer blue chip prospects traded than usual.
Eshan Mehere
12:54
how screwed is the yankees bullpen? Is there any type of rationale for not even adding a Brent Suter type (just thinking of cheap rental that moved)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I like what Cashman did in getting Garcia and Ramos given the state of the lineup, and i know plenty of Yankees fans are glad to see Doval and Bird go, but I agree that they needed to bring in a late-inning arm or two; bringing back Luke Weaver would have been great. I do think it's worth noting that the Yankees have done well in getting so much out of guys like Blackburn and Headrick, and that Chivilli shows promise. That's an area of strength for the Yankees, taking guys who have knocked around elsewhere, teaching them one weird grip trick or two, and turning them into good relievers (the Weaver plan) or even starters (Nestor Cortes)
bookbook
12:58
The Mariners were kind of noncommittal this year. Surprised?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
I like the addition of Ward, but though they might be getting too fancy by trying to deal Kirby or Hancock, and I can only presume they were asking too much for this time of year. I think they're betting a lot on the return of Brendan Donovan.

But let's face it, if guys like Raleigh and Naylor aren't playing up to their potential, the Mariners have problems a trade deadline won't fix.
Neil Peart
1:03
You just wrote ("a lot of these deals, for as much as we hype them, don't end up moving the needle much") what I think every single deadline. I know it makes for great fun to talk about, but aside from some of the big hit/miss outliers, it feels like deadline deals in early August just don't make as much of a difference as many fans think they do. You agree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
A lot of them don't amount to much, maybe an additional 0.5 or 1.0 WAR than what a team might have gotten from exisiting options. Over two months, variance in player performance can trump whatever blueprint you create — random guys go on heaters, or guys play through pain, stink, and then admit they're injured. But every year, a few things click in a few places and that's really what everybody is shooting for.
Bud Smith
1:05
Who came up with all the trade deadline headlines?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
Most often, individual writers come up with their own, some more idiosyncratic or witty than others (Baumann and Davy Andrews might have the best). If they're too esoteric or unclear, an editor will suggest changes, but sometimes they really amuse us to the point that they have to stay intact.

I think all of mine that I linked above, none of them tremendously witty, went through intact.
ap9
1:08
In your opinion, with the understanding that Arraez playing second base as a given, what scenario would be more detrimental to the Phillies' defense? Scenario A (which is what is happening) - Stott to 3B, Bohm to 1B, Harper to RF, and Arraez at 2B. or Scenario B - Arraez at 2B, Stott to SS, and Turner to OF (I'd assume he'd be in LF which would push Marsh to RF).
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
As I said on the Bloosk yesterday, I don't see any case to keep Bohm and his 76 wRC+ and shaky glove in the lineup. Maybe he's a better 1B than 3B, but the bar for offense is higher. I don't expect Harper to work out well in RF. At the same time, I don't think you can make Turner move mid-season on the fly, even if the metrics say he's been terrible at SS.

I almost think they'd be better off putting Arraez back at 1B even if it's against his will but i'd choose Scenario C, make different trades
Easier said than done, I know. But I just don't think they came up with the right answers
Jeremy Fox
1:12
Are the Pirates going to regret these trades to chase fairly low playoff odds. The last time they were buyers at the deadline despite fairly low playoff odds, it worked out badly. Or is the that the wrong way to look at it? Is the bigger picture here that the Pirates decided to go for it before the season (for Pirates values of "go for it"), and they felt like they'd lose whatever goodwill (and associated future ticket sales) they've built with the fanbase if they didn't keep going for it at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
This is the best Pirates team in years. Their last .500 team was in 2018, and before that 2015. Yeah, you wish they had more than a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs with two months to go but I think you have to do things to improve your chances. Maybe more than the Pirates did — I do like the bullpen upgrade, but they needed at least one bat, too. If I'm a GM, I chase those 1-in-4 odds to show the fans we care.
Jeremy Fox
1:17
I feel bad for Orioles fans. They were *terrible* for *years*, got one or two season's worth of fun and hope (depending on how you feel about 2024), and then had to watch two seasons of disappointing mediocrity and are officially retooling.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
I feel bad for them too. The new owner made so much noise about spending and keeping the young blue-chip guys around, but pretty quickly he's singing the song about a salary cap and skimping on starting pitching and ayiyiyi. I don't think much of Mike Elias as a GM, either, if he can't get ownership to make bigger commitments than just a Pete Alonso FA deal.
Jeremy Fox
1:22
What are the Blue Jays doing? What's the plan?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:26
More of a retooling than a rebuild. I am surprised George Springer didn't move — that's one answer for the question I was asked pretty early in this chat — but they went out and replaced Gausman, a pending free agent, with Soriano, who has two more years of control, and turned another pending free agent (Varsho) into a starter with three years of control (Arighetti). That gives them a good base of a rotation to work with. Didn't love the prospects they got back for Gausman, but as Brendan said about one of them (Bateman), the Blue Jays are one of the best organizations at building strength so they may be able to get more out of him than another team.
Mr. Redlegs
1:27
Sad Reds noises. Can't believe we kept all but 2 of the expiring players and there's talk of a QO for Singer. Just sucks to have such an uncommitted and unimaginative front office/ownership
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
Stephenson-to-the-Yankees seemed sensible but who knows what the asking price was, and I'd have tried to flip Bleday.
big trails
1:35
The new Rockies FO seemed to be making a lot of strides. Looking for value reclamation projects, willing to make trades, had what appears to be a decent draft, there was some noise from the FO about taking on money in trades to sweeten the pot. But the trade deadline came and went and it felt underwhelming. They made trades, which is an improvement on the previous FO, but they didn't sell high on McCarthy, Moniak or Bernardino. And now they announced they are working on a short extension with Moniak (albeit short and cheap). None of these players were going to bring back franchise altering prospects, but it looks like the prior Rockies MO of overvaluing their own players and not getting value when they could. Or am I being too jaded over a meh deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
the fact that they're even coming up with guys like Moniak and McCarthy is a plus, and they got something for Doyle, who wasn't helping them at all. I think they're taking baby steps in the right direction
1:37
I also think Moniak and McCarthy are particularly good fits for their park/situation so it's a bit understandable if they were asking too much
1:39
ok folks, there are still so many good questions in the queue — some of them better suited to our prospect team or Dan — but I've gotta run. I think this is a record, not a single Hall of Fame question, but 'tis the season to talk deadline postmortems. Thanks so much for stopping by!
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