JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/6/21

Jay Jaffe

2:06

Hey folks, pardon my tardiness. I have been working on a big Hall of Fame-related piece that I had hoped to run today but that still has some loose ends to tie up and got a little carried away.

2:07

That piece absorbed a lot of my attention this week, hence the lighter load of published pieces. I was very happy with the response that the Joey Votto piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joey-vottos-gotten-his-groove-back/)

2:08

Anyway on with the show...

Lorenzo

2:08

Will someone be doing a piece on J.R. Richard? I didn't realize that his career was tragically cut short at his peak, along with some major controversy over how the Astros handled his injury.

Jay Jaffe

2:10

The news of Richard's death hit me hard, because I remember how impressive and imposing he was (especially when Nolan Ryan joined that staff), and then how sad it was that he was struck down in his prime. A tribute to him is right in my wheelhouse, but as I am heading to San Diego for a week of vacation with my parents and my brother and his family on Sunday, I'm not sure i can put together something in a timely fashion. We'll see.

2:11

Reminds me that I wrote my Frank Robinson tribute while in Salt Lake City for a long weekend of skiing. tough timing.

Buster Posey

2:11

After this bounce-back year, is there anything else I still need to do to get into the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

Buster, I think your candidacy would benefit greatly if you would keep raking to the point that you pass the 2,000 hit mark.

I wrote about Posey's HOF case in May https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-healthier-version-of-buster-posey-is-swi...

Karl Diggler

2:12

Phillies, Mets, or Braves for the division?

Jay Jaffe

2:15

I still think the Mets hold on because neither the Phillies nor the Braves seem to be particuarly good, but wow, has that race tightened up. At the end of Saturday, the lead was 4 over Atlanta and 4 1/2 over Philadelphia and now... it ain't.

2:16

I liked the Baez deal for the Mets but I think they're going to regret having not gotten a higher-profile starter given the way things unfolded on deGrom.

not like the Phillies did much to help themselves at the deadline.

Appa Yip Yip

2:16

What's up with the Red Sox? Are they cooked, or will they recover?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

To these eyes they always seemed likely to come back to the pack given the holes in their lineup (1B especially) and a largely unimpressive rotation. Their starting pitching has been especially bad lately, with a 5.50 ERA and 4.45 FIP since the All-Star break. I know they think Chris Sale can help, and I think so too, but I also think they should have been more aggressive in upgrading the rotation last week.

Josh

2:20

How much do the injuries to Degrom this year hurt his HOF chances?

Jay Jaffe

2:22

It's a blow, in that he's missed enough time that he won't qualify for the ERA title, and is probably kaput in the Cy Young race. What really matters is whether he bounces back to health, though. If he doesn't, then he's really hosed.

Matt

2:23

How would an MVP this season affect Harper's HoF chances?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

Well, it wouldn't hurt them, but there are 2-time MVPs who have never made it (Juan Gonzalez and Dale Murphy). Harper got an early enough start that he should rack up some big counting stats if he stays healthy, but his defense is cutting into his WAR; he's at 3.0 bWAR right now, with -7 DRS, not to mention -6 OAA; he's at 3.7 fWAR because his UZR is only -0.5.

2:28

He can pull a lot closer on peak if he stays healthy and reels off some 5-WAR seasons

Josh

2:28

Who do you think gets the 2 Wild Card spots in the AL?

Jay Jaffe

2:29

A's and either Red Sox or Yankees. The latter really benefited themselves with the additions of Rizzo and Gallo but can't seem to buy a break in the COVID department. More like breakthroughs.

E in NH

2:30

Do you think Tarik Skubal's drop in performance over the last month is due to wearing down or the league starting to figure him out?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I haven't had a chance to see him lately so I'm less familiar with the arc of his season, but looking at the numbers, that guy is getting hit HARD. 91.1 mph average exit velo, .502 xSLG, 5.78 xERA — he's fortunate to have just a 4.32 ERA at this juncture

2:34

his fastball velocities don't show much variance month to month so I'm not sure if it's a workload/fatigue thing.

Evan

2:35

Is the potential Johnathan Davis/Brett Gardner platoon the worst of all time?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

I don't know about worst all-time but I don't see what Davis brings them that Greg Allen didn't. Allen had given them a nice burst of competence at a tough time and seems capable of living up to his 45 FV prospect tag

Gardner looked to be past his sell date last year and man, has he been overexposed this year.

War2d2

2:38

Weird question, but do you think Carlos Zambrano could have been Shohei Ohtani ten years earlier? I was looking at his stats, and he was worth 1.2 BBRef oWAR in 2008. I often wonder if he'd played every day if he could have kept his rage issues under control. He was out of the league by age 31, and still managed 40+ WAR.

Jay Jaffe

2:43

I doubt it. Zambrano was a good pitcher who missed bats and in his prime was especially good at preventing runs, but he never had anything close to the elite velocity of Ohtani, and he was a good hitter FOR A PITCHER, not a good hitter. 24-to-1 K/BB ratio. Remember that oWAR includes the positional adjustment, which in his case accounted for 10 of his 12 runs above replacement.

2:43

Is there anything the Astros could've realistically done to improve their rotation? Scherzer reportedly vetoed any trades with them, they likely couldn't have topped the price on either him or Berrios anyway, and I don't think any of the other starters traded is a significant upgrade over anyone in their healthy starting 5

Jay Jaffe

2:51

I mean, there's always SOMETHING that could have been done, but in this case might have involved trading major league talent. Like, suppose they were willing to move Jose Urquidy, who's good (but hurt) and has a lot of control years left, to Cleveland in the Straw trade and gotten back, I dunno, Zach Plesac, who's good but underperforming. I'm speaking in hypotheticals here,. As it was, I'm surprised that they did as much as they did to the roster by trading Straw and Toro.

Re: Nats

2:51

Do the Nats get involved in this offseason's shortstop class? It'd be early for the "rebuild"/"retool", but there doesn't seem to be another opportunity to fill that gap before Soto hits free agency...

Jay Jaffe

2:55

i'd be surprised, if after trading Turner they turn around and sign, say, Trevor Story or even Marcus Semien to a big deal. Since it doesn't look like they have anybody close at SS, I'd think that a couple years down the road, they might have to figure out who the next Story/Turner/whoever is that they can pry from another team before that guy reaches free agency.

drew

2:56

can you think of a good reason padres aren't pursuing sretch run SP depth like the dodgers are right now (duffy, hamels, tropeano)?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

I wrote about both the Padres and Dodgers' rotations this week and was surprised to see what Preller said about how if the guys they have don't pitch up to their potential then another addition wouldn't have made a difference. It smacked of some sour grapes and rationalization after the fact. Which isn't to say that there's no truth to what he's saying — Snell and Paddack have underperformed, and Darvish had a bad July. I guess the best I can say for Preller is that maybe he found the cost of an upgrade prohibitive when it came to the Padres' longer-term outlook and didn't want to further raid the system.

Sox Matter

2:58

Do you think Minnie Minoso ever makes it to the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

I would very much like to believe this, and I think that now that his Negro Leagues numbers are considered major league that it should help his case. He's still on a ballot that's ultracrowded with popular candidates but I have to think his time may be coming.

Nate

3:01

Where does Andrew McCutchen's career need to go from here to have a chance at the HoF?

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat