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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/6/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! It's been awhile since I did one of these thanks to even more July chaos than usual — Replacement Level Killers, trade deadline and Hall of Fame stuff. Glad to finally squeeze one of these in.
2:02
On Friday, I wrote about the Padres gaining ground not just in the NL Wild Card race but also the NL West race https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-have-tightened-the-nl-west-race.... I mention that because I've got a piece on the Braves that's about to run, looking at how they've slipped into a three-way tie atop the NL Wild Card standings.
2:03
And yesterday I took a look at the news regarding yet another lost season for Mike Trout, which put me in mind of Ken Griffey Jr.'s rough run in his 30s https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-another-lost-season-for-mike-trout-a-...
(grateful for the ZiPS help from Dan Szymborski on that one and yes, i'll take the over on the post-2024 Trout projection)
Ryan
2:04
For what Preller had to cut in payroll and trading Soto I think this is his best job as a GM to date. It just seems like a more complete team then any of his previous iterations. Thoughts on the job he's done with the restrictions placed on him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
As noted above, I wrote about the Padres on Friday. They've dealt with some significant injuries but this has turned out to be a deeper squad than last year, in part because they somehow lucked into a Jurickson Profar career year after a season that might have been a career-ender, and because the Jackson Merrill center field move has paid off so well. I thought they did very well in augmenting their bullpen at the deadline.

Long story short, the Padres' strength in scouting under Preller, and his philosophy about trading them instead of getting too attached to them, has allowed him to reinforce his rosters and remain competitive even while dealing with some limitations.
Doc
2:09
Do you have a take on Mark Vientos?  I did not see this coming.  He's been a reliable threat offensively, and more than adequate defensively.  He's no Francisco, but the Mets would not be where they are today without him.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
I don't have a strong take but figured that between Vientos and Baty, it wasn't unreasonable that one would pan out and provide some genuine help. And I agree that Vientos' bat has more than offset the concerns about his glove.
Benjamin, J
2:12
Does Jose Ramirez's multifaceted approach to the game make him less likely to earn induction into the Hall of Fame? I can't help but worry that since Jose's not the defender Scott Rolen is (but also not the hitter Chipper Jones is) that he may get left behind
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
I think it's sometimes harder for a candidate with a broader skill set to stand out to voters, but we are talking about a player who's already banked four top-four finishes in the AL MVP voting; the writers are aware that he's been one of the best players in the league, and a huge reason that Cleveland has been so competitive in the AL Central.
12 to 6
2:16
thus far this season, this mlb team has lost/been without for significant periods: its starting ss (and mvp candidate and second best hitter), replacement ss (and gold glove level defender), starting 1b (and mvp canddiate and third best hitter), starting 3b (and all star, lynchpin power hitter), starting right fielder (and best defensive regular outfielder), second and third most pivotal bullpen arms, and their #2, #3, and #4 opening day pitching rotation members, as well as (in addition) three of their best starting pitchers (and other sundry pieces); yet, they are in first place and have the second best run differential in baseball.

i invite people to criticize friedman's work - it is *remarkable* that the dodgers continue to dominate given their injury patterns this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
I think that litany overstates things a bit (Freeman missing 8 games isn't the same as Mookie missing two months, Heyward no longer really being a regular or a great defender) but yes, it's impressive that the Dodgers have survived so many injuries and underperformaces. They really have made a thing out of cultivating some amazing depth, which has helped them avoid panicking when they've lost, say, Yamamoto and Glasnow to the IL at the same time while Kershaw was still rehabbing.

That said, I also was impressed by their landing Flaherty for seemingly not much while other contenders sat on their hands with regards to frontline pitching.
Matt
2:21
Hey Jay, do you think the Covid-shortened season will have any effect on players HOF chances? I think of someone like Jose Ramirez, who was on pace for a 7-8 WAR season and could have gotten around 100 more hits in a 162-game schedule. While you could argue he’s well on his way to the HOF, players like Nolan Arenado, Felix Hernandez and Manny Machado (to an extent) show sometimes the descent is more pronounced than gradual.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
it might have an effect when it comes to some edge cases, just as the 1981 and '94 strikes did, but I don't think anybody who lived through the 2020 season is going to forget the circumstances of what the players went through and what they lost anytime soon. This isn't going to be like 1992 voters failing to consider what Bobby Grich lost in the '81 strike.
Selina
2:24
Three strong new candidates (Ichiro and CC).  A hopeful shoo-in (Wagner).  Several returnees with momentum (Beltran, Andruw, Utley).  A strong first-year class, with several newcomers who will probably have enough juice to clear 5% (Felix, Marin, McCann, Pedroia).  So:  does Wright fall off the ballot on his second go-around after just clearing the hurdle last time?  Is there any way he makes headway towards a 10-year run (ala Pettitte)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
6.2% doesn't leave Wright a lot of wiggle room but it wouldn't surprise me if he sticks around for at least another year while McCann and Martin fall short of 5% despite my best efforts to FRAME their cases (see what I did there?). That said I don't think his case is long enough for him to linger the way Pettitte has, because the latter has some aspects of his resumé (256 wins, massive postseason credentials and rings) that Wright does not. Also the HGH drawback, but longevity drives candidacies more than high-peak/short career does
Lance
2:27
In a world where Wagner doesn't get elected this time, is he a shoo in for the 2026 Contemporary Committee slot?  Or is the makeup of the voters more likely to give us Jeff Kent and Don Mattingly?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Bonds, Clemens and Schilling went from the BBWAA to Era Committee ballots without interruption, but the Hall now has a rule in place preventing other candidates from doing the same, so if Wagner falls short this year (no pun intended), he would have to wait until the 2029 Contemporary ballot to be considered again. Which would suck.
2:33
Some significant injuries, surprising underperformances, and an attempt to re-create the 2021 recipe for picking up outfielders off the scrapheap has left the Braves in a more precarious position than they've been for most of the year.
RookieWookie
2:33
With 2+ months to go in the season, Gerrit Cole is going to have to show us something if he thinks he can opt out of the last 4/144 of his contract, right? Not sure how many takers there would be on guaranteeing him $150mm at this point given age/health concerns?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
In the end I strongly suspect that his opting out will be a precursor to a restructured deal that lowers his AAV and helps the Yankees a bit with regards to their CBT situation
Will
2:38
Who do you like for ROY at this point and why?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Man, I don't know yet. There do seem to be a lot more candidates in the NL. Skenes, Shota, Merrill, Winn... I think Yamamoto's injury probably rules him out. Gil, Miller, Cowser, Wells in the AL. I don't see enough separation yet to have a real favorite in either league, so we'll see how these guys do down the stretch.

By the end of it, Skenes may have the bulk to be the clear favorite in the NL.
Daniel
2:41
Does it give you just a little bit of pause to discuss Griffey 's career as a disappointing outcome for Trout? I guess it speaks to Trout's greatness. But it's odd to me that anyone would be expected to be a top 5 player. Those are the outliers among outliers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
It's not so much that Griffey's career is a disappointing outcome, it's that the resemblance between the shapes of Trout and Griffey's careers to this point implies that we're not going to see a whole lot more greatness from Trout. I hope we're wrong about that.

I think we forget how remarkable Griffey's career was. Until he came along, there wasn't a single overall #1 pick who made the Hall of Fame. Nobody had lived up to those expectations. Griffey did it, then Chipper and Mauer (A-Rod did it too, but... ). You'd take that career from any 1/1 pick. That Trout surpassed that to put himself in the conversation alongside the likes of Mays and Bonds, even for a short time, is incredible too.
Butter Brickle
2:48
How are the parallels between Mike Trout and Andruw Jones as far as  center fielders whose productivity dropped off markedly in their 30s (for whatever reasons)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Right now there's a superficial resemblance, in that Jones had 58.0 bWAR through age 29, 4.7 after, but Trout is at 76.3/10.0 so he's already doubled the 30s production and is still far above league average and under contract, so he'll get to keep going.
2:51
and based on a table I created for The Cooperstown Casebook
Matt
2:53
Roughly how many wins will losing Westy cost the Os?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
maybe zero if either Holliday or Mayo clicks upon getting some playing time.
Jason
2:56
From a team building perspective, would you agree that the Diamondbacks seem set up for success? Good core of young, productive players surrounded by a few key veterans.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
They're in a decent place but I'm absolutely worried about Carroll, and I haven't really seen them produce the kind of starting pitching they're going to need to move off the Wild Card fringe.
wheelhouse
2:58
you think jazz sticks at 3B going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
Not sure yet, but I think this winter the Yankees will be able to use his flexibility when planning what to once Gleyber Torres reaches free agency.
Good lord do they need to move on from Torres
Guardcore Clevelander
2:59
Fun fact, since Danny Jansen got traded to the Red Sox and is likely to play in the August 26th rematch of the rain-postponed June 26th game (where he played for the Blue Jays at the time), so he may end up in the box score on both teams at once.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
With apologies to the headaches this is going to cause Sean Forman, I hope we see this.
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