JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/9/18

Jay Jaffe

12:01

Hey gang , and welcome to this week’s chat. Apologies for forgetting to reschedule last week’s chat — because of the July 31 trade deadline, I swapped toddler care days with my mother-in-law, who is clutch (I normally take Tuesdays), then forgot how that would impact my normal schedule. Anyway, the deadline, my trip to Cooperstown, and my discovery of an awesome new sandwich shop in DUMBO (Untamed) are now under my belt, and we are all (metaphorically) richer for it. Onward…

Scott

12:04

Did you catch any of Fiers start yesterday? I thought he looked great and might even be a WC starter candidate

Jay Jaffe

12:07

I saw a bit of it, mostly as background while I finished up a forthcoming piece on Felix Hernandez. Fiers has bedeviled the Dodgers before, no-hitting them in 2015 soon after being acquired by an Astro. He's a streaky pitcher, and I'd guess he's got a shot at starting the WC game if he looks like he did last night

Gerb

12:08

Hey Jay, so back at the end of May I mentioned that Jose was on pace for a GOAT 3B season, and then you wrote a great article about it! At the time he had accrued 3.7 WAR through 244 PAs. I just wanted point out that since then he has added 3.8 WAR through his next 252. Are we at the point that 10 wins in a more likely than not?? Also apparently he’s decided he’s going 40/40

Jay Jaffe

12:10

Jose Ramirez's ROS projection is for 2.0 WAR, so if you assume that's the center of the distribution of a large number of outcomes, then he's got a decent shot at 10. Dan Szymborski is a better person to ask about probabilities though, especially as he's the guy with the projections. Regardless, he's having an MVP-caliber season, and the longer Mike Trout sits with his wrist thing, the more possible that becomes

Nelson

12:10

Hey Jay, Max Sherzer sure seems on a HF path right? Just the hardware alone should put him in

Jay Jaffe

12:13

He's certainly building a good case for himself, with 3 Cy Youngs and counting, but he's 34 and has "only" 156 wins and 2,365 strikeouts. He's significantly behind Kershaw, Greinke, Verlander and Sabathia in JAWS, but if he keeps on keeping on, I think he'll be in strong position. It would take a lot for the voters NOT to elect a 3 or 4x CY guy

Bruce

12:13

What would Degrom need to do to win the Cy with single digit wins? Have Scherzer completely unravel down the stretch?

Jay Jaffe

12:14

Right now deGrom has a half-run edge in both ERA and FIP. I do think there's a lot of sympathy for his plight, and the recent CY voter group has shown it can look past win totals in picking its winner, so I think he's actually got a decent shot if he keeps this up, single-digit wins or not.

Andrew

12:15

You see Soto get thrown out last night? Might have been the weakest ejection I’ve ever seen.

Jay Jaffe

12:15

That was some horseshit umpiring

Rick

12:15

Lorenzo Cain or Starling Marte?

Jay Jaffe

12:17

Is that even a question? I'd Cain every day of the week. Legitimate MVP candidate and a human highlight film as a defender

12:18

Jay are you aware of a precedents for returning from calcified heels- in baseball, or any major sport? I tried googling it but it was yucky as hell so I stopped. The Mets say it is not career threatening but they said the same thing about Ike Davis and David Wright just before they killed them.

Jay Jaffe

12:19

I haven't heard of any precedents, but if it's the Mets, you assume death or permanent disability is the most likely outcome, then count your blessings if the guy even makes it to his next birthday.

Nick

12:19

This is the dumbest question you'll get today, but I was just discussing it with a friend - Let's say Mike Trout played two more seasons at his current pace to reach the 10 years needed for eligibility in the HOF, then retired at 28. If he stayed in shape and announced a comeback attempt at the age of 33 during his Cooperstown podium speech, what would the Hall do? Does he lose his plaque? Obviously someone would sign him, right?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

There's nothing preventing a comeback post-election, but I do think if he retired on his own power at 28, he wouldn't get the same level of near-unanimity that he would if, to use Jeff Sullivan's term, he were to fall victim to a storm-chasing accident. A certain segment of the voters would hold out.

It's a moot point, almost certainly, since there's no way Trout could walk away from potentially hundreds of millions that he could make if he were still able-bodied.

yerp

12:24

NOOOOOOOOOO, Travis!

Obviously, very excited for him. But also sad for Fangraphs.

Jay Jaffe

12:26

in case you're wondering what this is about: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/saying-goodbye/

It's been an honor to be teammates with Travis for the past six months, because we've been longtime admirers of each other's work. We finally got to meet on the staff trip in Denver, and spent more than half of the Rockies game we attended just talking one-on-one abut baseball. It was a rare opportunity that I'm grateful for. I know he'll crush it wherever he goes, and I know that FanGraphs will continue to be great even as talented folks move on.

kevinthecomic

12:27

We would have chatted with your mother-in-law, FYI........

Jay Jaffe

12:28

She is a great person and a very talented writer herself! Paula Span writes for the New York Times, covering aging and wellness https://www.nytimes.com/column/the-new-old-age as well as, uh, grandmothering (The Bubbe Diaries, you'll have to google that one).

David

12:28

Re: Juan Soto. To be fair, in his prior at bat, Soto was already jawing with the umpire, and the umpire let him talk. However, it was the next at bat where he came up and continued to jaw, which was why he was thrown out.

Jay Jaffe

12:30

To be fair, nobody comes to a ballpark to see an umpshow. I haven't pored over the footage, but I don't think the ejection was warranted.

Tom

12:30

Matt Carpenter - best first baseman in MLB?

Jay Jaffe

12:32

If I'm going by any kind of multiyear true talent consideration, then it's either Joey Votto or Freddie Freeman (with Goldschmidt and Rizzo having taken small and large steps back this year, respectively).

Steven

12:33

What’s up with Adam cimber? Can’t strike anyone out since going to Cleveland? Zero K’s so far since being traded (zero!)

Jay Jaffe

12:34

the guy has gotten 13 outs as an Indian so far and has been hit a bit. That's a pretty small sample, but maybe he's going though some fatigue or something where his stuff isn't sharp. I wouldn't lose a ton of sleep over it

Philip-Florida

12:34

I gotta ask, do you stand behind the % to win World Series as they are published today? I ask because Indians (20 games back of Sox) are listed MORE likely to win WS?!?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

The playoff odds system isn't mine, and we present more than one set of odds so as to enhance understanding of the questions we're trying to answer. The regular version, which incorporates rest-of-season steamer/Zips projections, actually shows the Red Sox with a 15.9% chance at winning the WS, Indians at 14.2%, so already you're missing something. The Season-to-Date odds give the Sox about a 21-10% edge Only the coin flip odds put the Indians ahead of the Red Sox, and that by all of 0.2%. You can read more about the methodologies here https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about

Johnny Coconuts

12:38

There's a significant gap in career WAR for modern shortstops between the adjacent Alan Trammell (63.7) and Jimmy Rollins 49.6). Do you view Trammell as more of a jumping off point, or would you consider someone like Lindor for HOF if he ends up somewhere in the middle (perhaps assuming he wins a WS)?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

the JAWS standard (average of career and 7-year peak bWAR) is 55.0. Trammel is at 57.8 — a bit better than a HOF SS needs to be to earn my vote, Rollins at 39.3, so far short that I wouldn't think twice about leaving him off my ballot. Between Lindor, Correa, a hopefully healed Seager and who knows who else, we're at least 15 years away from seeing where these guys land relative to those two.

Jim

12:43

Does a Kershaw that can't break 91 mph and induced 4 swinging strikes last night still opt out after this year?

Jay Jaffe

12:44

I'm not about to read too much into a single performance, but I have a feeling Kershaw's 3 straight years of injuries turn the opt-out into a quiet extension with the Dodgers.

Jason

12:44

Hi Jay, hope you're having a nice day. Not sure if you've discussed it before, but what are your HOF odds for guys like Goldschmidt, Rizzo, and Freeman? I'm assuming Votto's closer than them so I wouldn't include him in that group.

Jay Jaffe

12:50

JAWS & age so far: Goldy 38.0, 30 y/o, Freddie 30.9, 28 y.o, Tony 27.5, 29 y.o. If I had to guess I'd probably say 30%, 20%, 15% — Rizzo won't make it if he's already going into decline, and he's at just 1.5 WAR this year.

12:50

Odds that Markakis receives a QO? Would he take it, or will someone offer him 3 years?

Jay Jaffe

12:52

I'd think he gets the QO, he's earned it, but he'll do better than that I think. Wouldn't be at all surprised if the Braves re-up him given the high esteem in which they hold him.

In general, it's very tough to go wrong with a one-year deal, and there is zero reason not to offer a guy coming off a strong year one, on the off chance he takes it and you defer having to take an even bigger risk in his long-term production

NotGreinke283920120

12:53

Zack Greinke might be the most underrated pitcher of all-time, maybe next to Mussina. Not a question.

Jay Jaffe

12:54

He's got a Cy Young award and two of the largest contracts for a pitcher in history. I'd say he hasn't been underrated at all.

Chinaski

12:54

So Jayson Werth said this: "... I think it's killing the game. It's to the point where just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don't even need to go out there anymore. It's a joke." Do people really misunderstand the purpose of data analysis to this degree? Or is he just lashing out?

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat