Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/1/26
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war2d2
12:43
Jay! I think it was on one of Ben’s chats that I posited the change to the roster rules that I think would fix the (in my opinion) awful epidemic of position player pitching as a de facto white flag on a game: First, put a hard limit on pitcher/position player roster split. Something like a max of 12 or 13 pitchers on the roster at any given time. Second, have some ridiculously low inning limit before a player counts against that pitcher limit. Maybe as low a 3 IP or something. What do you think? I’m pretty sure you’d see it go back to 1990s levels pretty quick.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
There already IS a hard limit on pitchers on the roster. it's 13, not counting two-way players (a distinction for which only Shohei Ohtani meets the criteria).
12:45
Currently a two-way player is one who in the previous two seasons:

• Pitched at least 20 Major League innings
• Started at least 20 Major League games as a position player or designated hitter, with at least three plate appearances in each of those games
I'd love to see the two-way rules loosened
Alby
12:46
Why do so many position players lob the ball in when they're called upon to pitch? They can throw harder than that, obviously. Is the idea to throw off the hitters' timing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
The primary idea is to not get hurt, by avoiding hard throwing. Secondarily — a distant second — they might provide a wee bit of entertainment for anyone still watching or even playing. But really, it's more about injury prevention than anything else.
Solitaire
12:48
This playoff hunt has got to feel pretty bad for Taylor Ward eh?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
The man spent eight seasons with the Angels. A team with the talent to make the playoffs but underperforming has to be a refreshing change.
Also the fact that Ward is hitting .121/.227/.152 ain't helping, but maybe that was what you were alluding to with your question.
baseballfan115
12:50
I really enjoyed your recent article about Peters and particularly love your write ups on HOF candidates. Have you considered writing a biography on an MLB player? (Separate question) If you were to write a biography of a player, who would it be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
I have thought about a couple of biography options but any kind of book is a daunting task, and a bio — one done right, with dozens if not hundreds of interviews of people — is an even more daunting one. I do have an idea for a pitcher who starred in the 1980s and isn't in the Hall of Fame but that's about all I can say (no, I don't think a book would be enough to help his cause).
12:52
But thanks for the kind words about the Peters piece and the HOF writeups
Cris E
12:53
For fall callups, how about more seats once you get eliminated or more than 6 games out of the wild card?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Not the worst idea
Jeremy Fox
12:54
Who do you like for the last two AL playoff spots? Give us your gut feeling.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
My hunch is the Astros hold off the Rangers and win the AL West with 82 or 83 wins, and that the Guardians win the 3rd AL Wild Card spot.
Alby
12:56
Re: Your book idea. My money's on Fernando.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Erik Sherman just did an excellent book on Fernando that does a nice job of bringing in the situational context of Chavez Ravine and the more general impact on Latin American fandom https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/nebraska/9781496231017/daybreak-at-c...
maximus74
1:00
What happened to Tanner Bibee's strikeouts? His first two years he was a 25% guy. Now he's sub 20% and just an innings eater
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
Offhand i don't really know. His overall whiff and swinging strike rates are similar. However a couple things stand out:

  • He's cut way back on the use of his sweeper, the whiff rate of which has dropped from 31.4% to 18.4%
  • He's not throwing his four-seamer in the zone as often (48.6%, down from 54.6%). The chase rate against that pitch has spiked (from 18.2% to 28.2%) but batters aren't chasing his curve or changeup as often.
I'm not sure about pitch shapes or locations but he's maybe creating less deception with this tack.
ichiro262
1:05
Opinion on the Mariners’ path forward? Would you fire Dan and/or Jerry?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
I'd have fired Dan Wilson weeks ago. I can see the case for firing Dipoto too, but I've seen it suggested that Wilson's persistence in the job — and the weird insta-hire via which he got it in the first place — indicates that was an ownership-driven move rather than Jerry's choice. In which case I think Dipoto might deserve to be cut some slack.

Still, what an utter mess of a season in Seattle.
Dylan McNamara
1:07
obviously a great play, but objectively, how ridiculous was Cowser's game ending catch yesterday? Statcast has it at a 45% catch probability bucket, but the amount of reach over the wall needed seems nuts for that probability. But... also not a full tilt sprint, had the time to time his jump carefully, etc
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
Those catch probabilities are based on opportunity time, distance needed, and direction. They don't account for wall-scaling or home run robberies or stuff like that.
1:10
Not sure why the vid isn't embedding and it seems to be blocked via Jotcast. But you can copy/paste well enough
war2d2
1:11
Speaking of position player pitchers, the Brewers left Vaughn out there for more than 50 pitches yesterday. This after leaving Harrison in for 98 pitches in 3.2 IP. I’m not sure if they were short-handed and needed the innings but both of those numbers seemed way high to me. Especially Harrison, who basically was throwing high-stress pitches from the jump.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Yeah those were weird choices and high counts; i'm not sure about the specifics of their previous bullpen usage though
maximus74
1:14
why do MLB and MiLB use different balls?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
Why anything? Probably money – the minor league balls cost less to make. FWIW Triple-A uses the same balls as the majors.
Bob Loblaw
1:16
If Ohtani time traveled back to 1920, is 20 WAR possible?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
Color me skeptical because he'd be asked to pitch much more frequently than he is now. "What is this once-a-week stuff?"
elijahmaxim
1:17
Hi Jay, first time in your chat.
Do you have an all-fun favorite (current player) lineup?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Thanks for the q. I'd have to think harder about this than I have time for in a chat. If I come up with good answers I'll drop them in the comments.
1:18
OK folks, I've got to cut this a bit shorter than usual for reasons too boring to mention. Thanks so much for stopping by!
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