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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/10/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chats. I'm just back from a bit more than 48 hours in Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame induction ceremony; I wrote about the Class of 2020's long road there https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fames-class-of-2020-nears-the-...
2:04
2:05
Today I kicked off the annual Team Entropy series https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2021-back-to-somewhat-nor...
and now, on with the show...
bob
2:05
Is Yadi the next catcher going to Cooperstown?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
Joe Mauer will hit the 2024 ballot, which looks to be four years ahead of Molina if the latter sticks to his plan to retire after next season. I don't know that Mauer will be a first-ballot guy but he'll go in soon
RAndoM121
2:07
How close is Nelson Cruz to being a Hall of Famer for you, and would 500+ homeruns make him a lock?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
not close and no, not with a PED suspension and value limited by his DH duty. Explained near the bottom here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-pitchers-and-some-more-position-play...
Billy Martin’s ghost
2:08
Barring yet another miraculous turnaround, the Yankees have to move on from Boone in the off-season, right? Beyond that do you foresee major changes? I would hope there has to be some sort of roster shakeup via trade.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
I don't get the sense that Boone's neck is on the line. Is it his fault Torres, LeMahieu, and Frazier forgot how to hit? That Hicks was lost for the year with injury and that Brett Gardner was the center field fallback? That Voit missed so much time due to injury? That Chapman turned into a pumpkin and Britton and Loaisiga got injured? Et cetera
2:12
I think there are things to criticize Boone for — I don't think he's very good at running a bullpen — but I also think he had to deal with a perfect storm of stuff that could have wiped the Yankees out much sooner, and as I look right now, they're still in a playoff position. I know Yankees fans have bloodlust, but I don't think they'll be sated by the firing of Boone
Sonny Price
2:12
Is there any precedent for what we are seeing with Cody Bellinger this year? +7 WAR and a MVP in 2019 yet now he's running the highest K% and lowest BB% rates of his career while hitting like a starting pitcher
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Guys get injured and get into bad habits trying to right themselves. I really think this is just a wash for Bellinger and that with a winter to rework himself, he'll be fine — maybe not MVP caliber, but I don't think this is the end of his time as a productive major leaguer, or for that matter a Dodger.
Jay hire me
2:14
With A-rod up for HOF election do you think that people will overlook his PED issues? If they dont do you think he makes it eventually?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
LOL
2:15
If the writers aren't going to elect Bonds despite his not being suspended, what on Doug Gwodz's green earth makes you think they'll elect Rodriguez given his suspension?
2:16
That said, never is a long time, and I'm willing to bet that somewhere down the road Bonds (and Clemens) will be elected by a committee, and that will at least open the door for A-Rod, but a full year suspension is a helluva thing to overcome
Sonny
2:16
Ted Simmons’s hair should have gotten him into the Hall twenty years ago. Elder Flo was amazing
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
A friend's very astute son said that Simmons looks like a composite of every Rolling Stone.
I think if you'd handed him a guitar in 1972 he'd have fit in visually, and I think the same is true now that he's gone gray
His speech was fantastic, by the way. Best of the day
MIke Ortman
2:17
Let's stop and say congrats to you Jay.  You (and others) have changed the landscape of the Hall of Fame.  I hope it's immensely satisfying knowing the impact you've made.  I keep thinking someone will give you a shoutout in their speech, but if the players don't see how clear it is, all of us serious fans do.  Props to you, my cyber friend.  Now get busy on Cooperstown Casebook Two!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
Thank you for the kind words, Mike. I do take some satisfaction in seeing the direction things have taken in terms of my system, and advanced stats in general, guiding the arguments — and in seeing "my guys" get inducted. I'm not waiting around for anyone to give me a shoutout, though. The players are the stars of the show, I'm just helping to put the right stage lighting on them.
I did come away from this trip to Cooperstown more determined than ever to get a second book going.
Ron Hassey's Gigantic Face
2:19
I know this is old news with the voting being from last year, but were you surprised Cliff Lee only received 2 votes and is now off the ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
No, not really. Lee was great, and certainly deserved more than two votes but nobody with career totals like his has gotten in for a long time or is likely to go in unless the win three Cy Youngs along the way
Mi Nombre
2:22
During the two-Wild-Card-era, the biggest win difference between Wild Card teams has been six. Should NL WC2 have to beat the Dodgers or Giants twice considering the win difference is currently at 14?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I wouldn't be opposed to a system that required the lower Wild Card seed to win twice, but sometimes you're going to wind up with that when the two teams finish with the same record and have to be seeded according to non-playing tiebreakers (head-to-head, intradivision records, intraleague records) and then it's going to look like an injustice.
Joel
2:24
Have you written about which of the 2022 eligibles might make the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
Babip Roberts
2:27
Jeff McNeil: cooked or unlucky?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
I started a thing on McNeil's slump but had to turn my attention elsewhere. It's tough to imagine that he's cooked at his age (29), but a guy who's so dependent on contact and batting average has less of a margin for error than guys with more power and patience.

I know he had the hamstring injury and there's the feeling that he's gotten into some bad mechanical habits. He's going to have some work to do this winter.
Dan’s Emotional Intimacy
2:32
Is Joe West a first ballot HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
given his record number of games umped, i suppose his induction is inevitable. It will be a great chance for everybody at the ceremony to stretch their legs and go get a hot dog.
MM
2:34
Which player/team should the casual fan root for these playoffs?  Last year it was Kershaw and the Dodgers to finally win one.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
Well, there's still a lot up in the air about who's playing but I guess it depends what you want. The Brewers have never won a World Series and only went in 1982. The Mariners haven't been to the playoffs since 2001. The A's keep making the playoffs but not getting anywhere. The Dodgers get looked down upon by some for only having won during the shortened season. The Padres have never won one. The Reds haven't been to one in eons and it would be cool to see Joey Votto play in a World Series. And so on
Joel
2:37
Exile on 25 Main St, Cooperstown, NY?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
well played, sir.
Tony
2:37
With no new inductees this year (2021) and the general ... controversy ... at the top of the ballot for next year, do you think there is a chance that the writers will end up elevating someone like Jimmy Rollins because they just want to vote for someone? Or is it more likely those votes go to the Rolens and Heltons, who already have some momentum after a few years on the ballot? Or am I way off base here?
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