You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/18
powered byJotCast
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
12:07
OK, back, and as noted, working at a slight disadvantage due to a bandaged left thumb, which I sliced off the tip of on Sunday morning in the service of chopping garnishes for my breakfast tacos. A LOT of blood a trip to urgent care, two stitches, all while trying not to freak out our two-year-old daughter.

The tacos, which used chicken from this recipe (https://lifemadesimplebakes.com/2017/07/instant-pot-shredded-chicken-t... — I used all thigh meat), were delicious nonetheless.
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
12:08
Why are so many helmets flying off players heads? Shouldn’t they be a bit snug to where they don’t?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I can't believe Rob Manfred hasn't corraled a blue-ribbon committee to look into the matter, because you know Bud Selig would have been on it like... like a toupee on Bud Selig
Jonny
12:09
With the Cardinals being in the thick of the race now, and Tommy Pham putting up a 166 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR so far with the Rays, do the Cardinals regret that trade now? Or do they really think Pham is a net negative? Or do they just really really like Justin Williams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
We know that tensions were pretty high between Pham and the team based on a number of issues, including playing time, his contract renewal, and his long road through the minors. We also know that the Cardinals have had tremendous outfield depth in recent years, depth that led them to trade Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk this past winter and not miss them at all. I can't say I know much about Williams, but I do know they wanted to create more space for Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill
Marwin Gonzalez
12:14
Do I get a QO? Who are the best utility players to compare me to contract wise?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
Gonzalez was a 4-win player by our measures as recently as last year, and is at 1.4 WAR this year. He's not really a very good SS anymore (-8 DRS/-6 UZR in 522 innings over the past two seasons), but he's a useful player to have around, albeit probably not ~$18 million a year useful. I generally would tend to err on the side of issuing a QO , but here I think it's a stretch. that said, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Astros work to come up with a 2- or 3-year deal for him to keep him around.
Lunar verLander
12:18
Sure, you sliced your thumb open, but when your daughter gets older, you can say that you put your blood, sweat, and tears into everything you do for her.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Oh indeed.
John Oleruds Helmet
12:18
Mr Jay!! Oh honored one!! Grace thee with thy wisdom!!! Could the Rays be the surprise team of 2019? Am I crazy to think they could get even better next year with improved health of some of their young pitchers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
I think they're already one of the surprise teams of 2018, given what they've done after trading away Longoria, Odorizzi, Colome, Dickerson, Archer, etc. — not that I'm crazy about their attempts to justify such cost-cutting. They remain a fascinating baseball laboratory due to things like their use of the Opener. I don't think they'll sneak up on other teams in the same way next year, but if De Leon and Honeywell come back from their TJs and pitch well, they'll be competitive for sure.
Erica
12:22
I think we shouldn't make fun of Willians Astudillo for being chubby. Like, maybe it doesn't bother him, and I don't think people are being malicious about it, but "it's funny/cute when you try hard at sports" isn't a great message to send to people with bigger bodies
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
I'd like to think that we're celebrating the way that in baseball, players of so many shapes and sizes — the Bartolo Colons, the Randy Johnsons, the Aaron Judges, the Jose Altuves, the Astudillos — can find ways to succeed and to entertain us. Bartolo batting GIFs aside, these guys are being highlighted for accomplishment, not ineptitude. But I do concede that it's a sensitive area, and certainly worth some thought in each case as to what is being portrayed.
Phil Diggety
12:26
HOF chances for Posey/Greinke/Votto? And Verlander is almost certainly going in at this point, yes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I've written about the Hall chances of all of these guys this year, and at the risk of slowing down my already turtle-like pace in this chat, suggest you google "Jay Jaffe" "[player]" FanGraphs to find them — but yes, I think Verlander probably put himself over the top this year.
PM
12:28
Can you briefly go over the process and methodology that lead to jaws
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
One of these days I'll do a glossary page for JAWS, but for the moment the best way to understand it short of buying The Cooperstown Casebook — which I highly recommend, having read it several hundreds of times myself (because I wrote it, hahaha) — is to start with one of my annual introductions to the series such as I did at SI last year https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/27/hall-fame-jaws-intro-2018-ballot
Qualified Offer
12:30
What would you say the breaking point of contract value is on offering a QO?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
I think a guy whom you think has a good chance to be worth at least two wins is worth considering for a QO, with other considerations — incoming free agents, near-ready prospects, team budget situation — shading that decision. It's not entirely true that there are no bad one-year deals, but it's tough to go too far wrong with one, within reason
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:33
Lots of folks associated with the Cubs (management and fans) not happy with MLB's decision to make up the WAS game in DC today. Fair or not for CHC, given the long stretch of baseball they were in the midst of?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I think it's fair for the Cubs to be pissed. The CBA exists in part to protect players from stuff like 30 straight days without an off day, and asking the Cubs to fly for a one-off to do it, when there's a good chance of rain, is some BS.

Brief delay while I help Carson Cistulli along with prettifying my Odorizzi article
Turgid
12:39
Have managers and coaches stopped wearing full uniforms? Just realized yesterday that I don’t think I’ve ever seen manager Aaron Boone with a jersey on
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
I'm not sure exactly when it happened, but it certainly has happened. One guy who would know is Paul Lukas, keeper of the brilliant Uni Watch site (http://uni-watch.com), @UniWatch on Twitter, and somebody I've been reading for 20+ years. He used to do a real live paper 'zine called Beer Frame and a site called Inconspicuous Consumption (http://www.core77.com/inconspicuous/), both devoted to deconstructing and appreciating the sometimes mundane items of every day life, such as the Brannock device, which measures people's feet when they're getting fitted for shoes. He's great. Tell him I sent you
Davey Jones' Lockerroom
12:43
Do you have objection with MLB sporting up its look and throwing the stodgy old white guy tradition to the wolves?  Let guys wear shorts and "futuristic" t-shirt jersey, flashy many colored cleats, cricketers batting helmets?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
I don't think shorts are practical (sliding? ouch) but I think players should be able to go nuts with their cleats as an outlet for their individuality.
Harry Barker-Fost
12:45
Derek Holland has to be one of the most surprising players in baseball year. How, at age 31, has he surpassed 9 K/9 for the first time in his 10-year career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I haven't looked too closely but yeah, he's getting the highest full-season swinging strike rate (10.2%) of his career, and he's at his highest innings total since 2013. Maybe it's better health? Change of scenery, and probably a philosophical change in there too — worth a closer look in terms of whether his pitches themselves have changed.
High and Away
12:47
I know it’s totally unfair that MLB is making the Cubs play every game on their schedule, but do they still have the division edge?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Slow down there. It's not unfair that the Cubs have to play every game, but given the travel/weather combination of the moment, it is perfectly reasonable not to require them to make one up until the day after the regular season ends if it affects the playoff picture. The real question the Cubs have to answer is whether this is preferable to the possibility of playing Game 162, then playing the makeup, then playing the wild card game (if they don't hold onto the division) and then the division series opener if it all shakes out that way. Not unreasonably, they would prefer that route.

Based on the talent at hand, I still think the Cubs will win the division, and so does our Odds page (71.4%) . But I love that this is in doubt, because I'm all about that Team Entropy.
High and Away
12:51
Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich are tied atop the NL with 5.5 fWAR. You get to be the tiebreaker! Who has been more valuable?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I've said this before but I'd give Cain bonus points for the highlight-reel caliber of his defense.
Nola’s
12:52
Do you have any opinion on Craig Counsell? Seems like one of the best at blending new school and old school.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Beyond his enlightened approach to bullpen management, I'm not sure exactly where he falls on the new-school/old-school spectrum, but Counsell and the entire Brewers organization have done a helluva job over the past two seasons.
Matt
12:54
He'll fall well shot on JAWS, but Curtis Granderson is a hall of fame caliber good dude. I'm very happy he's been successful with the Brewers so far.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
He's generally a very easy guy to root for, and very media savvy. I hope to hell that he's just trolling when it comes to his moon landing conspiracy bullshit, though. https://nypost.com/2015/08/30/curtis-granderson-a-mets-believer-and-mo...
Crawfy25
12:58
What is probability that there is a 5 way tie between the cubs, cards, brewers, dodgers, and rockies after 9/30
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
according to this rarely-seen subpage within our Odds, not enough to show up in a single-decimal format https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/tie-breaker. The most far-fetched scenario that registers there is a 0.1% chance of a 4-way tie for NL Wild Card 2, though the teams themselves are unspecified. Will try to find out more for a future Team Entropy installment
Sandy A.
1:03
Due to the new rule, if everyone else has to finish their season early Sunday afternoon, why should the Cubs get to wait till the next day?  They could then hold a starter back and save him for the playoffs.   It kinda defeats the spirit of the rule in my opinion.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
There's also a rule saying that players aren't supposed to play on more than 20 consecutive days. Which one takes precedence? Essentially, that's what the Cubs and MLB are contesting.
Load More Messages
Connecting…