JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/18

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/18

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peakfreak

1:05

Is the opener strategy working for the Rays? Has it contributed significantly to their winning record?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

It would seem to be working, yes. I'm not sure of the splits from the point that they introduced it, but they've got the majors' sixth-best ERA- and FIP- (89 and 92, respectively) overall, which has to be well above most projections, and likewise, they've already surpassed their projected 76 wins.

Bo

1:07

You know what else isn't fair? Getting to play the AL Central when the NL East has to play the AL East.

Jay Jaffe

1:09

It's pretty clear that life doesn't guarantee fairness, but not unreasonable to hope that an organized entity such as MLB does its best to maintain certain types of fairness within its system. Geography and the financial and competitive advantages that come with it are things over which MLB can only do so much, and that's part of where the debates lie.

CubbieBlues

1:09

What does Joe Maddon have to do to get in the HoF? One more world series?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I suspect he's probably already done enough to get in; getting that career winning % well over .500 (it's at .541) despite spending a couple years at the helm of the Devil Rays is a pretty solid achievement unto itself. In this day and age, it does seem as though a second title is a separator for managers, a way to stand out beyond guys like Davey Johnson, Lou Piniella, Jim Leyland, Mike Scioscia, Billy Martin etc., all of whom have some claim on a spot if not necessarily the consensus to get elected.

Chevy Avalanche

1:13

Grienke is an absolute beauty. And I can't find an article by you about how he's headed for the HOF. Is Google letting me down or is such an article still to be written?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Nothing centered around him, it's true, but mentioned in the context of pieces on Felix, CC Sabathia, Verlander and maybe others. Maybe I oughta write something

Dan

1:14

Would you consider Kimbrel a lock for the HOF? He seems to fly under the radar from a media perspective (even for the Red Sox); however, statistically he is already one of the greatest closers of all time.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

No. He's got 527 career innings, mostly dominant ones, but we've seen the way the voters have turned their noses up at Billy Wagner's 903 innings while he's the owner of the highest K rate and lowest batting batting average allowed (min 800 innings for both), while at the same time electing Trevor Hoffman and his less dominant performance over 1,089 innings. Right now, Kimbrel's numbers are impressive, but can he hold on for another 500 innings? I hope he can, but it's a genuine rarity for closers to last that long

Hey yo

1:19

Read the Casebook and loved it. Noticed that in several player's bios you mentioned if they struggled with the bottle. As a recovering alcoholic, found it interesting.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Thanks. Battles with alcohol certainly shaped a lot of careers, and not for the better — a lot of early declines, early exits and early demises. I thought it was noteworthy to mention that when it was relevant, and hope that i didn't cross any lines by trying to glorify it.

Steve

1:21

Who sets the minimum requirements for HOF induction?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

The Hall itself sets the rules. They set the minimum playing career at 10 seasons — which has come to be clarified as playing games in 10 seasons — and have only waived the requirement once, in the case of Addie Joss, who played nine seasons plus exhibitions in a 10th before being felled by the tubercular meningitis that killed him.

Stevil

1:24

Looking at Atlanta and where they're at now, are they the next powerhouse in the NL? With so little salary committed, they could tighten up with a free agent like Harper or Machado and look even scarier.

Jay Jaffe

1:25

They do seem well positioned. The extent to which that wealth of young talent holds up, and to which ownership spends money, are what remains to be seen. I don't know that I'd put higher odds on them than the perpetual competition machines in Chicago and LA, but it should be very interesting to see.

Stevil

1:26

Hey Jay, by all appearances, Seattle seems to be on the edge of a cliff. They have a ton of committed salary to players that couldn't get it done this season--and that doesn't include Nelson Cruz. Should they be looking at the international market for answers? What would you do if you were in Jerry's shoes?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Trade himself to another team? I really don't know, but you're right, this looks like a mess in the making given the weight of their long-term commitments ($83.6 M for 2020, for example) and the weakness of their farm system. Investment internationally, where you can get tremendous bang for the buck with some skill and luck, is certainly worth pursuing, but that goes for every team.

Bob

1:28

How valuable is Bryce Harper to the Nationals? In terms of WAR he is their 5th best player, according to baseball reference he is their 8th best player, yet the local sports talk act as if he is one of the best players in the league. Is WAR that far off or are the sports writers wrong? Couldn't Taylor/Eaton/Robles replace him and they don't lose all that much?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

In WAR terms, you're correct, in part because Harper had such a mediocre first half, but I'd say that we can understand his value as going beyond the aforementioned because A) we've seen his upside, in the form of that MVP season and B) he's got the profile of a superstar, with a reach that goes well beyond those of nearly every other player in the game.

The Nationals will obviously have to weigh the question of whether he's worth the continued investment now that he's about to become a free agent, but you're right, in baseball terms he might not be that hard to replace.

Astros Bullpen

1:33

The stats have stated they had a top bullpen all season. With the addition of Osuna, is it the best in Baseball?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

If Aroldis Chapman and everybody else in the Yankees' bullpen are healthy, I'd put them ahead, but right now, it's probably the Astros.

It bums me out that both of those units have key players who have been suspended due to domestic violence incidents. Appreciating them is a lot less fun.

Nick

1:37

What are your thoughts on Franmil Reyes? Big numbers at AAA as a 22 yr old, and success in the MLB as well

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Dude certainly has made an impression with his power and can probably be an above-average regular for awhile thanks to that. The question is whether he has any other plus tools, and I certainly haven't seen enough myself to answer that (I haven't watched many Padres games and furthermore, I'm no scout).

Davey Jones' Lockerroom

1:39

Did Cleveland actually do something shady in acquiring/DL-ing Josh Donaldson? What's the beef?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

The beef as I understand it, based on a Ken Rosenthal article, centers around the legitimacy of placing Donaldson on revocable waivers when he was not healthy enough to play an MLB game yet — a rule I did not know existed but one that teams are aware of. It seems like that wasn't the case, and furthermore, if I understand it correctly, Donaldson should have been required to sit for five days before getting a second rehab stint. So yeah, I can understand why other teams are sore.

Jeff McNeil

1:42

BPro noticed you taking credit for their writers work Mr Editor in Chief are you gonna fix it and apologize immediately or are you going to answer questions about Franmil Reyes

Jay Jaffe

1:44

I am not the editor in chief of this site. I'm not even an editor. Please contact Carson Cistulli.

Towel

1:44

Astros AND Yankees bullpen over Oakland's? Hmm

Jay Jaffe

1:46

I think they belong in the discussion, sure. It depends what we're debating. From a full statistical perspective (things like FIP and K rate as well as just ERA), they're not at the Astros/Yankees' level, but as Jeff Sullivan pointed out this week, their high-leverage performance, which centers around a smaller subset of their relievers, has been insane and possibly record-setting.

1:47

OK folks, it's time for me to head out, as I've got to vote in the New York State primary and prepare for the arrivals of my mom and brother, who are visiting us this weekend. Here's my Odorizzi piece https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/odorizzis-no-hit-bid-didnt-go-entirely.... Have a great week, and thanks for stopping by!

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