You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/20
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
it's quite possible we'll see nobody elected by the BBWAA. Schilling (70.0%), Clemens (61.0%) and Bonds (60.7%) are the top three returning candidates, Vizquel (52.6%) too far off (and too polarizing) to get there in one year, and none of the new guys is likely to even get 5%. That still leaves the four honorees from this year's postponed festivities to induct, so there will (hopefully) be something to celebrate in Cooperstown next summer.
Logan
2:30
Re: Holes on playoff contenders: who fills out the starting rotation for the Braves in the post-season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Niekro
2:31
Or more likely some combination of Ian Anderson, Max Fried, Cole Hamels, and an opener.
nervous fan
2:32
I am afraid expanded playoffs may be here to stay -- hard to put the financial toothpaste back in the tube -- but I fear they would really kill the intensity of the regular season. What's your read on how likely we are to go back to the 10-team playoff we've seen in recent years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
I think people are going to be overwhelmed and numbed by 4-8 games a day in the first round this year and that we'll get back to 10 teams next year
Trent
2:35
Which World Series in your life time has been most exciting, and which did you find most boring?  For me, the answers would be 2001 or 2016 for the former, and 2005 or 2008 for the latter.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
I'm not going to generalize about half a century worth of World Series but sweeps are almost invariably dull as dishwater (2004, '05, '07, '12, to confine them to the time in which I've been writing about baseball). All of the recent 7-gamers have been real rollercoasters
Rain
2:38
...what about rain? Playoff 7 inning doubleheader battles?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
not sure about that. Haven't seen if they've made an announcement about that while i've been in this chat
Benny
2:39
How would you rank Russell Martin, Ben Zobrist, and Felix Hernandez in likelihood to return to MLB next season, taking into account both desire and ability?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
Hernandez appeared to have made the Braves so I'd put him first. Martin publicly said he was planning to play this year but nothing ever materialized. I don't think we ever heard anything similar from Zobrist, though.
pg
2:40
Next ten years, who you taking- Trout, Tatis, or Juan Soto?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Tatis given that he's shored up his defensive woes whereas Soto, for as fantastic a hitter as he is, is already DH-ready already (-8 UZR and -13 DRS  in about 2 seasons worth of playing time)
Joe
2:42
I know the small sample size is making it hard to judge things, but what should Yankees fans be most worried about going forward? Injuries? Cashman? Sanchez? Stanton's contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
For the remainder of 2020 it's the rotation and Sanchez. The Stanton deal may be a problem but come on, this team isn't going to be stopped in its tracks by one bad contract
Andi
2:44
Phillies annual fall from contention imminent?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
they're likely to make the participation-trophy playoffs (~66%)
Scott
2:46
who Is your favourite for nl cy young
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
Probably deGrom, with Darvish and Burnes (!) in the picture too
Chris
2:46
Why is manfred having teams play in 283 aqi?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
it's seriously ridiculous that they're playing through that. As a matter of player safety, this deserves MLB's attention right now, even if it means moving games to neutral sites.
Trent
2:48
Overwhelmed by too many playoff games?  Sports fans cite the first two days of March Madness as some of the best days in sports because of the number of games.  Sign me up for a baseball version.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
not all baseball fans are wired that way. Not everybody is going to sit through 2 4-hour games back-to-back
2:50
but yes, if you love it, more power to you. I'm exhausted thinking about our coverage plan, though.
Ry
2:51
So in order to contextualize this season, I exported the FG leaderboard and calculated the WAR for every player if they were given 600 PA (WAR/PA*600). Miggy Rojas is playing out of him mind 9.7 WAR pace.... feel like more should be written about him
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Good for Rojas but don't expect it to last Hot streaks of even 93 PA (his total to date) aren't that uncommon, and in his case, his 88 mph average exit velo doesn't support that extreme slash line
WinTwins0410
2:55
Jay, I know that you’re not a supporter of Andy Pettitte for the Hall of Fame. But I’m curious — by what percentage points do you think the HGH admissions are hurting him with the writers. IE, he got 11% of the writers’ vote this past year. What percent do you think he’d be garnering from the writers if Pettitte hadn’t admitted to using PEDs? 25%? 40%? 20%?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
maybe 10-20 points? 3.85 ERA plus comparatively modest strikeout total given his longevity, no Cys... compare him to Mussina and he's a significant step or two behind in everything but postseason volume.
Grisham
2:56
Tatis vs. Trout for the next ten years is reasonable, but what about, say, the next five or seven?  I'd still probably take Trout over either of those timeframes.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
the shorter the timeframe the more the arrow still points towards Trout, I think (though this year's defensive decline is a concern)
And1
2:57
Are injuries to Wheeler, Hoskins and JT included in that projection?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
For every team, the playoff odds is a combination of performance to date, schedule ahead, and individual player projections, which include our estimates of playing time. We have Realmuto projected for 31 PA remaining, Hoskins 0 (UCL ouch), and Wheeler 15 innings. The thing is that those are pretty small numbers and the increment of shifting some time over to backups doesn't do a ton, not when, like, the banged-up Mets are their closest pursuers.
Trent Hauser
3:00
Who do you like in the Phillies pen during the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
pretty much anybody but the guys they have.
3:03
Parker hasn't been bad
Rohit
3:03
Thoughts on Freddie Freeman's shot at the Hall? What would you need to see in the next 5+ years for him to get there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
He's 31 and has a 31.9 peak score (WAR7), with just one season above 6.0 and three seasons of at least 5.0. Four more at exactly 5.0 would take him to 37.2, which is still 5.5 shy of the standard at the position. In other words, he's gonna need to put together several six-win seasons to look like a good candidate. Votto has five of 'em plus one at 5.9 Cabrera four of them plus one at 5.8. Both are above the peak standard — that kind of volume will get Freddie there.
Benny
3:08
What order do you have Freeman, Rizzo, and Goldschmidt in Hall likelihood? What about Arenado, Machado, and Rendon?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
This is probably an article topic, not a chat answer but I don't see much chance for Rizzo
Connecting…