JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/16/22

Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today's chat! It's a crisp fall day in Brooklyn, appropriate for the September stretch run.

2:02

I've got a piece today on Kevin Gausman https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fip-or-flop-why-kevin-gausman-isnt-part-of...

2:03

yesterday I wrote about Trayce Thompson https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trayce-thompson-makes-a-splash-as-the-dodg..., and the day before that the very slumping Juan Soto https://blogs.fangraphs.com/juan-soto-isnt-having-a-juan-soto-year/

WildCard

2:03

If you were a fan of one of the three (likely) AL wildcard teams— would you secretly be rooting for third to trade home field advantage for a matchup against the AL central winner? Or would you rather home field advantage against one of the other stronger (by record at least) WC teams?

Jay Jaffe

2:04

This really is a bit of an unintended consequence of the way MLB came up with the new format. Zach Crizer wrote about it at Yahoo just the other day https://sports.yahoo.com/race-for-last-how-the-new-mlb-playoff-format-...

2:07

My instinct tells me the odds are better by facing a weaker Cleveland team even if I'm on the road, but I worry about getting too cute by trying to steer myself to one opponent rather than another, and my gut tells me that keeping the home games might be better.

Leland

2:07

You're Farhan Zaidi...what do you do this offseason to make the Giants a Wild Card contender in 2023?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

screw the division, go for the NL West. My biggest moves would be to retain Carlos Rodan and sign Trea Turner (you could also go for Carlos Correa but this keeps Turner from returning to the Dodgers). I think they're the only likely west coast landing spot for Aaron Judge if he doesn't re-up with the Yankees but I don't think you could fit all three of those guys on the payroll

Mike M

2:10

Banning infielder shifts doesn't really address the problem of overpowering pitching. Why hasn't lowering the mound been discussed more? Why didn't the MLB committee consider it? Would you have preferred a lowered mound to the shift ban?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

Every time I think about What Must Be Done about dominant pitching and think about mound heights or distances, my spidey sense tells me that these changes are going to cause more injuries because pitchers are more likely to try to overcompensate for the changes. I actually think the pitch clock might have a better effect by not letting pitchers dilly-dally until they're ready to throw max effort again

Sodo Mojo

2:14

I know talking about Julio Rodriguez and the hall is premature but for other 21 year old's with 5 War seasons what is the rate of hall enshrinement?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

Going by bWAR, 17 out of 34 players with 5-WAR seasons at age 21 are enshrined, with Trout and Pujols obviously on their way; Andruw, Correa, and Acuña possibilities, and A-Rod derailed by his own mistakes. I'd say it bodes well for Julio, but it's not automatic. Just ask Cesar Cedeño (8.0 WAR in 1972).

Matt VW

2:17

Devers looks for all the world like someone who came back too soon from his hamstring injury. The top and the bottom halves of his swing just don't synch up at all right now. There's nothing tangible left to play for in Boston this year; wouldn't it make sense to go ahead and shut him down? Watching him run the bases right now is terrifying.

Jay Jaffe

2:19

What little I saw of him didn't look great. While I obviously wouldn't play him if he's got a significant injury, i do think from a player's standpoint, trying to get right before the season's end can bring some peace of mind going into the winter. In theory, maybe some days off to rest and reset and then a run of games before the end, but of course I don't really know the specifics of what Devers is or isn't dealing with.

Jon

2:21

How do I tell you apart from Ben Clemens?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

I have a mustache and Ben is better at math.

Sonny

2:22

Feels like winning the Triple Crown is something that would put Goldschmidt over the top for a lot of HOF voters if he gets himself to the doorstep stat-wise.

Jay Jaffe

2:24

As Dan Szymborski noted today (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-likely-is-a-triple-crown-winner-this-s...) everybody who's won one is in except Miguel Cabrera, who's on his way. That doesn't mean it's going to punch Goldschmidt's ticket but JAWS already has him most of the way to Cooperstown and he's clearly not going to retire tomorrow so my guess is that he's going to be a pretty solid choice by the time he's done

2:25

Do the Padres miss the playoffs? Soto playing below replacement level, Musgrove and Clevinger struggling, feels like a repeat of last year where good players just forgot how to play at the worst time of the year.

Jay Jaffe

2:26

They still have a game and a half on the Brewers and about a 3-to-1 edge in terms of the two teams' Playoff Odds. The longer his slump proceeds, the more I wonder if Soto is actually injured and not just a bit out of whack

Appa Yip Yip

2:30

How is Ross Stripling being so effective this year? Is it just limiting to two times through, or is there something new going on?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

Offhand it looks like he's getting better movement on his fastballs, doing a better job of avoiding hard contact, and getting the good defense/luck behind him where Gausman has not, particularly with the shift on.

Probably worth a closer look, especially if the Blue Jays make it out of the Wild Card series

v2micca

2:32

Spencer Strider needs to log 8 more strikeouts in the next 4.2 innings to break Randy Johnson's record for fewest innings required to reach 200 Ks in a season. How do you like his chances?

Jay Jaffe

2:33

That's probably right on the edge of doable; he's reached eight strikeouts in less than five innings twice this year.

Shift ban

2:34

It is very unpopular among people I know my age. We grew up with it as an exciting part of the game. How is mlb going to grow the game among young fans when they just keep pandering to the nostalgia of old people?

Jay Jaffe

2:34

this is the first time i've heard the word "exciting" connected to the shift.

David

2:34

What's the value of second base defense starting next year? Second base defense historically has seemingly been a place to try to put an okay defender with the better bat. We're now at a point where defense is more valued and effectively measured AND they can be less protected without shifting.

Jay Jaffe

2:36

We're going to have to see. There's definitely been a class of defensively challenged players able to hold down second thanks to the shifts; the question is how much of that is the ability to position them more optimally based on the better analytics and how much of it is just having a rangy shortstop able to cover for them, which won't be quite as easy next year.

Pepper Martin

2:37

If the Yankees don't get LaMahieu and Rizzo and Carpenter and Bader etc. healthy in time for the playoffs, do they have any chance at all with their one- man offense?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

Obviously that would be a problem, but all except Carpenter are due back within the next few days, and there's a couple weeks for them to get up to speed.

YorDaddy

2:39

Astros playoff rotation prediction?

Jay Jaffe

2:40

My guess is that if he's healthy (he comes back tonight) Verlander is Game 1 and Garcia is the long man in the bullpen

Mike M

2:41

How much do the Dodgers playoff hopes depend on a healthy Gonsolin?

Jay Jaffe

2:43

They'll need him to win a World Series unless Dustin May can iron out all the kinks, which is asking a lot given his short track record.

Jim M

2:46

Given that the postseason is basically a crapshoot, are the Phillies (assuming a healthy Wheeler) the Team No One Wants To Play? Their pitching is sneaky solid, but they will need the kids in the lineup to rise to the moment.

Jay Jaffe

2:46

They've got a very good 1-3 in the rotation but their defense, while improved, is still bad and I don't trust their bullpen.

Strasburg

2:47

The Washington Post has a story today about Stephen Strasburg not being sure if he'll come back. Do you know if contracts are usually insured? Also, if said he was already showing signs of TOS before signing this contract. If so, the Nats can't be thinking too well of their medical staff.

Jay Jaffe

2:47

That Strasburg piece was depressing as hell https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/09/16/stephen-strasburg-inj...

2:48

Some big contracts are insured but it can add a lot of cost, and I don't know what the situation is for Strasburg's; we tend to find out about these things only in a situation like David Wright when the team is actively trying to discourage a player from playing so that they can collect on the claim

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