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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/16/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
As for the TOS stuff, it's tricky to diagnose and I don't think we've heard of another case in baseball that presented as Strasburg's did, with the carpal tunnel issue at the forefront.
Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer
2:52
Nate Silver regarding the pursuit of the home run record:

"There's something delightfully euphemistic about people saying that Aaron Judge is chasing the "Yankee home run record" or "American League home run record" when they really mean the not-credibly-suspected-of-PED-use home run record."
I skip the euphemisms
Good luck Mr. Judge and I hope you team loses every game. Forever.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Gonna disagree. Some people are using that as a euphemism, but as somebody who lives in New York and watches a lot of Yankees games, I can tell you that people do care about 61/62 and want to see it even while knowing that Bonds is out of reach.
And yes, it happens to be the AL record, too. Which is cool even if we generally don't spend a ton of time distinguishing between AL and NL records
John Olerud’s Helmet
2:54
Hello Mr Jay! How hard are you rooting for Albert to make it to 700??
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I'll be honest, him passing A-Rod was enough for me. 4th all-time is pretty damn special whether it's 697 or 700
Marko from Tropoja
2:55
Which active pitcher other than Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, and deGrom (who I think gets in someday) has the best HOF chance, and what percentage would you put it at?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
There's a big gap between deGrom and those other four in terms of likelhood of getting in because of his recent health issues. But moving beyond that I think it's probably Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola who show signs of having the stuff to last long term.
Factory of Sadness
2:58
How early do you usually start keeping an eye on players from a JAWS perspective? Asking for a fan of Andres Gimenez, who's basically matching Jose Ramirez step for step in fWAR this year and only *just* turned 24
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
Unless a guy has at least 5 seasons in the neighborhood of five or more WAR it's probably too soon to look at JAWS
Sanford
3:01
Gut reaction—who do you think makes the HOF among these SS?

Lindor: 41 fWAR entering age-29 season
Bogaerts: 34 fWAR entering age-30 season
Correa: 31 fWAR entering age-28 season

Other SS from this crop either got started too late (Swanson), missed too much time (Seager), or both (Story) to keep with those top 3 in counting stats at this point in their careers (though I'd be most bullish on Seager making up ground in his 30s).
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
My money is on Lindor and maybe Correa but the latter has to gain some durability. Bogaerts isn't going to be a shortstop for much longer I don' think.
Harmon Ripkowski
3:02
I imagine Judge and Ohtani finish one and two on most people's MVP ballots.  But if someone else cracks the top two, it's most likely...
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
.... because they're trying to game the system by downvoting one of those two.

I think reasonable minds can differ about which of those two should be MVP but I really don't see a plausible alternative to either in the AL.
Harmon Ripkowski
3:04
Has Jose Abreu changed his approach or is the relative lack of power and more walks drawn something else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I haven't watched closely enough to tell you about his approach but that's usually a pattern associated with aging and with Abreu, who's 35, we shouldn't be that surprised. the good news is that he's still exceptionally productive. A whole lot has gone wrong for the White Sox this year but his 143 wRC+ in 142 games (so far) has been huge.
Nestor
3:08
Even if he's more of a 2WAR guy than this season's numbers, worth locking him up? He has been doing this for a year and   half now (and I... am not sure that IL stint wasn't load management)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
He's for real, and worth keeping around. Wouldn't surprise me if there's an extension coming his way.
Homer lead
3:10
I think the homer lead Judge has is the most remarkable part. I've seen people hit more homers, but never that many more than everyone else. Remember when Yordan was like 2 behind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Yeah that one blew me away
3:12
as my friend Nick said, it's literally a Ruthian accomplishment
Joe Don
3:15
Putting aside competing or contending for the nonce, how far are the Rangers from just being relevant?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I don't think it's that far. Starting pitching is their big need and they've got upper level prospects in Leiter and Winn, though both have taken their lumps this year. THey'll need pitching from outside the org, too.
Harmon Ripkowski
3:17
Can Gonsolin tie Roy Face for 18-1?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
Doubt it because I don't see him being built up enough to last 5 innings as a starter in his return.
Tiger's Fan
3:20
If the modern game continues to prove more difficult to hit and accumulate counting stats will the HOF voters have to adjust their criteria and use more stats like OPS+?  It appears almost impossible for today's players (including Mike Trout) to come close to Miguel Cabrera numbers let alone Albert Pujols numbers.  What criteria would you use based on a season like this one?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
The vast majority of voters have adjusted to using advanced stats such as OPS+ and WAR. Note the recent elections of Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker, neither of whom had the counting stats that make for an automatic election. The same will be true for Todd Helton and Scott Rolen, with defense in the mix as well.
3:23
Milestones tend to make guys automatic entries (PED-linked 500 HR guys being the exception) but voters are increasingly geared to handle more nuanced cases
JAWS
3:24
"Unless a guy has at least 5 seasons in the neighborhood of five or more WAR it's probably too soon to look at JAWS" Hey look it's Judge's 5th 5WAR season. That's gonna be hard though.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
Judge is a strange case because of his late start, as noted within the pice I linked above
Guest
3:24
Would it kill you guys to answer questions other than from Appa Yip Yip and the same 3 people over and over? There’s no way you don’t notice the names…
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Honestly, I rarely look at names, I look at questions that interest me for which I can provide concise insight. Do some chat participants understand that better than others? Probably, but I don't spend a ton of time trying to make sure I'm not answering multiple questions from the same person.
Dipoto's Burner
3:26
Is Julio's recent hot streak vaulting him into a top 10 MVP finish? He's got some dollar bills on the line.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Probably but he'll only get one bonus, whichever is larger:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”
Guest
3:28
How much fanfare was there when Giancarlo hit 59 homers in 2017?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
less than for Judge because he was in Miami.
Tony
3:30
Quick HOF question I've been thinking about lately, with Buck's induction, do you think there could be other "lifetime achievement inductions"? Offhand, I am thinking of someone like Bill White, who was a very good player and then went on to be a pioneer in multiple roles after retirement, too
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Buck was such a singular case because he contributed in so many different ways and was so broadly popular with the general public. I think White is worth a closer look but I don't know that as many people know about his contributions, including those on the committees that make the ballot
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