JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 9/16/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 9/16/25

Prev Page View Full Chat

Bosoxforlife

12:50

When a great player fades as he ages does that affect the way you look at his HOF electability. Am I correct in assuming that the age at which the inevitable decline occurs would be an important factor? Andruw Jones is an obvious example of early collapse and Paul Goldschmidt is the player I am thinking of specifically.

Jay Jaffe

12:52

Greatness comes in many shapes and sizes both with regards to the physical aspects and the career shape. I'm still mainly going to judge a candidate by the entire body of work, including his peak, and a high peak like those of Andruw and Goldschmidt can offset an early decline. Both have nearly identical JAWS (54.6 to 54.4) and that's pretty surely a Hall of Famer

Matt VW

12:53

Is K-Rod 2002 the best October surprise on record?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

Randy Arozarena's 2020 comes to mind as the top one — 10 homers, and still rookie-qualified the next season. Evan Carter in 2023 is another

Darryl Vanilla

12:56

If McLean has two more starts like his first six and is behind only Shaw in WAR, what are his prospects for rookie of the year?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

I don't think ROY voting is as WAR-driven as, say, MVP voting because rookies may arrive at different times. I wouldn't expect Shaw to win based on his low batting average. We have Isaac Collins, Drake Baldwin and Caleb Durbin all clustered within .1 WAR, and Cade Horton standing out on the pitching side. I'd bet it's either Horton or Baldwin.

Kevin

12:58

It seems a lockout after next season is inevitable. What percent chance would you give to regular season games being lost in 2027? To half the season or more being lost?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

do you not already have enough uncertainty, bad vibes, and impending doom in your life to be asking about something like this over which you have absolutely zero control?

1:00

Seriously, start worrying about it when the owners lock the players out, and know that the stuff almost always gets sorted out with very little actual interruption because MLB is a money-making machine

AA++

1:00

How much does Ohtani need to be to be inducted into the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

I think he already passes the bus test.

The M’s only win when I’m abroad

1:01

Ah, super fair point on Field of Dreams. Haven’t watched it since I was a kid and didn’t think about those things. Will cross it off the ever-shortening list of nostalgic movies to re-watch. Thanks tor linking the longer-form article too!

Jay Jaffe

1:03

rewatch it if you want — it's fine to revisit things with a critical eye, I think that's a great opportunity for growth.

1:03

re: playoff guesses, what's got Jay not believing in the Dodgers? I've already sent them goodbye into the sunset but we come to you for rationality

Jay Jaffe

1:03

have you seen that bullpen?

1:06

it's an unsettlingly bad bullpen where injuries are only part of the problem. I don't have any confidence that Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen, Kirby Yates et al are going to be able to nail anything down.

Eli

1:07

I was looking at Ron Guidry's stats recently and not to play the "Better than Jack Morris" game but given the NY media market and his '78 season, is he a possible '81 strike victim? Or even a great full '81 season wouldn't have made a real difference in the BBWAA's mind(s)?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Guidry went 11-5 with a 2.76 ERA (129 ERA+) and finished 7th in the AL Cy voting that year (Morrs, 14-7, 3.05 was actually pretty good and finished 3rd). I think Guidry would have had to win nearly all of his remaining starts to get to 20 wins, and as it is, he got to pitch in the World Series and compete for a third ring... but Pedro Guerrero and Steve Yeager had other ideas.

1:10

(those two hit back-to-back solo homers off Guidry in the 7th inning of Game 5)

I think Guidry still would have been short of the volume needed to impress HOF voters

Captainjameshook

1:12

Are The Dbacks going to overtake the Mets and reprise the Tigers’ sell off and get in from last year? And if so, will this have any effect on future FO’s looking at their depth at the deadline and saying eff it, let’s get some pipeline talent and still see if we can sneak in?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I'm not holding my breath for the Diamondbacks but sure, it could happen. I do think that especially now that the playoffs have such a low bar to entry we'll see more stories like this. People forget but even in 206, when the Yankees sold off at the deadline and got Gleyber Torres in the Chapman deal, they gave a run for awhile thanks in large part to Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin; if Aaron Judge had hit like he did in 2017, it would have been even closer.

Porcho Villa

1:15

What do you make of Framber Valdez's recent struggles? Rollercoaster of a season, from early struggles to a long stretch of pure dominance and now back in a deep slump. Recognizing that this is anecdotal armchair psychology, I've seen him get rattled easily during starts throughout his career. With that in mind I can't help wondering if the ridiculous crossing-up-his-catcher incident and its ensuing controversy coupled with his expiring contract are weighing him down on a human level.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Maybe there's something to what you're saying, but absent him explaining his mindset I'm reluctant to ascribe psychological causes to normal performance fluctuations. I think he's having a pretty typical Framber season — maybe a little streakier than usual, and I wonder if the workload of four straight seasons with 175+ innings, plus postseason work, is catching up to him.

Clyde

1:19

World’s biggest Luis Urias fan here. Time to move on?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Didn't have a very good season but he's only 28. I'm sure we haven't seen the last of him.

Pirates Hurdles

1:21

I think Happy's defense of the use of the N-word is quite a bit worse than a 40 year old movie failing to deal with race when MLB itself had barely began to do so. The book and story have nothing to do with that.

Jay Jaffe

1:23

I had forgotten about the Chandler incident, from 1989 https://www.upi.com/Archives/1988/04/06/Students-protest-Chandlers-rac...

That still doesn't excuse the incongruity of James Earl Jones' speech in FoD.

1:24

To the person who asked about Bobby Bonds and the HOF, i answered a very similar question in last week's chat.

TugMcGrawFan1996

1:24

The two #1 teams in the AL/NL are similar in that they have basically no below replacement level players (the Blue Jays have one, and it's their closer who still has 30 saves). What does this say about roster construction wrt focusing less on high ceiling guys and more on high floor guys?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Sometimes it's high-floor teams without big weaknesses that are more successful, sometimes it's stars-and-scrubs teams, and the context matters. Over the course of 162 games, depth is a huge deal, but in the playoffs, a higher share of the playing time goes to the top ~15-16 guys on the roster so having higher top-end helps

Karl Hungus

1:26

I think Ray Liotta as Joe Jackson batting right and throwing left is worse.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Another strike against the movie. And with that, i'm calling it a day for this chat. Thanks so much for stopping by!

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat