JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/21

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat. I've got a piece today about notable second-half slides that have crowded the Wild Card race https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-second-half-slides-that-have-crowd..., and earlier this week, I wrote about Team Entropy (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2021-lets-get-wild/), Max Scherzer (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-chases-perfection-and-collect...), Ryan Braun's retirement (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ryan-brauns-complicated-legacy/)

And now, on with the show

Fat Spielberg

2:02

Do you think it’s true that Steve Cohen’s tweeting has hurt the Mets chances of hiring decent FO people?

Jay Jaffe

2:04

I don't think it's helped that cause, to say the least, but I think the bigger problem is that the organization just reeks of a dysfunctional culture, and the most prominent person in common to the Wilpon era and the Cohen one is Sandy Alderson, who's apparently returning despite three notable hiring gaffes that blew up in the team's face. I don't see how you're going to land an Epstein or a Beane if Alderson is still in place.

Fat Spielberg

2:04

I’ve heard a lot of people this season call Bryce Harper a future first ballot HoFer. I don’t necessarily disagree, but when I look at his comps on bbref, it’s a group of really good players, but only one HoFer in the group (Reggie Jackson. And Barry Bonds.) Are people jumping the gun, or has this season (which I assume isn’t used in those comps) pushed him over the edge?

Jay Jaffe

2:06

I don't think Harper has come close to guaranteeing first-ballot status but his early start put him on a Hall of Fame path, and the way he's played over the past two seasons has helped get him back onto it after his progress was slowed. Wrote about him in this context here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ten-position-players-who-have-most-helped-...

Tom

2:06

Hi Jay. I know it's early, but any thoughts on what the NL West is gonna look like next year? You think we're gonna get another season of three "superteams" mixing it up?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

I don't think we can characterize the Padres as a superteam after what happened to them this year, particularly with a rotation that was projected to be among the game's best just falling apart, and I suspect we'll see some changes. Would they fire Preller and/or Tingler? I'm not sure, but a lot blew up in their faces this year. I think the Dodgers will remain a powerhouse but could look different depending upon how they approach the free agencies of Seager, Kershaw, and possibly Scherzer. I expect the Giants could look different as well given their aging core and the number of free agents they have, but we know this new regime is pretty smart and I expect they'll be in the mix going forward

Steve

2:10

Whose HOF voting arc will Alex Rodriguez most resemble?

a. Rafael Palmeiro
b. Manny Ramirez
c. Barry Bonds
d. Larry Walker

Jay Jaffe

2:11

Manny. It's very tough for voters to get around a suspension, and A-Rod had the longest PED one of any player who wasn't banned

Fat Spielberg

2:12

Although I really liked him as a player, the HoF selection of Harold Baines really came out of left field. Are we likely to ever see this kind of selection again?

Jay Jaffe

2:13

I don't expect a selection from a committee that's quite that egregious, but I think that Fred McGriff, who never moved the needle as far as JAWS was concerned, is likely to be honored in this context, and there are some Golden Days candidates who have come close in the past that I'm notably lukewarm about (Oliva and Kaat, esp.)

Greg F

2:13

Curious to know who your trendy breakout candidates for 2022 are. Who do you like?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Kinda got my hands full thinking about the rest of this year, sorry

Erik

2:14

Why do people suddenly think Epstein is about to come back? Wasn't he pretty clear that he wanted a break??

Jay Jaffe

2:17

Opportunity doesn't knock every day. Money and desirable job openings have a way of convincing someone they've gotten enough of a break. And a lot of times people leak that they're interested in a position through the media. I don't know for sure that's happening with Epstein but he'd hardly be the first for whom it did.

Which isn't to say he has to take the Mets job or, since it's been floated, a similar position with the Padres. He's got an interesting winter ahead

Sam Palazzo

2:18

Do the Yankees resign Rizzo this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

2:19

doubtful, since they kept Voit and he's rebounded . He presents a chance for them to get good bang for the buck, which is important given their spending habits

2:21

lunch (sushi and tempura) just arrived so bear with the slowdown for a few minutes, as I'm famished.

2:21

What do you think about Longoria's HoF case? Just about to hit 50 JAWS, but not talked about very much. Thinking that the lost time this year really hurt, especially since he had a chance to improve his peak score.

Jay Jaffe

2:25

that was a very tough blow he suffered, costing him over two months at a time when he was playing very well. I think he has an uphill battle given the way voters have historically treated third basemen, and his comparative dearth of individual honors or black ink. But he's got a chance to make some noise with a very strong team in October, which can help his cause too

Mrs Phanatic

2:26

I know this is a player you probably forgot about, but which team do you think could fix Vinny Velazquez? Or is he so bad not even the Rays could fix him?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Probably not the Padres, alas. The Giants have done very well fixing pitchers during the Zaidi era, the Rays are probably a good bet. Maybe the Dodgers.

Mi Nombre

2:29

deGrom (1261 IP | 64 ERA- | 65 FIP-) is almost half way to Pedro's career (2827 IP | 66 ERA- | 68 FIP-) and Hader (275 IP | 54 ERA- | 62 FIP-) is almost a third of the way to Wagner's career (903 IP | 54 ERA- | 63 FIP-). Who has the better chance of making it there?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

the one who didn't suffer a second UCL tear and who's still in his 20s.

Rick

2:30

What happened to Dominic Smith this year and is it just a blip this year or was he overrated?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

he's somebody I want to take a closer look at but for now I'll note that his big successes (and for that matter, his big failures before this year) have all come in playing time samples of less than 200 PA. He's had one season of 1.0 WAR or more out of four.

2:32

Given the Reds recent stumbles, I'm back to wondering where they'd be if they'd just kept Raisel Iglesias. The bullpen has been better of late, but there were easily games earlier in the season where he could have been the difference. No way to know for sure, but that $9MM they saved sure looks like a mistake now. What's a current estimate of the value to a team winning the wildcard?

Jay Jaffe

2:33

Almost certainly more than $9 million

Scott

2:33

Really enjoyed “Once Upon A Time in Queens,” the recent 30 for 30 on the ‘86 Mets. Still hard to believe that only one member is in HOF. What do you think the chances are for Keith Hernandez and Davey Johnson on future era committees? I know Johnson has been passed over twice already.

Jay Jaffe

2:36

I'm surprised Hernandez hasn't even been able to get on a ballot, particularly given that he's still prominent within the game. That said, his case is overly dependent on defensive metrics that back his reputation and committee voters aren't necessarily the biggest supporters of those numbers. Johnson — great but short career, not getting back to a World Series hurts him a lot given that there are other eligible managers vying for space on the same ballot who at least made it there a couple times.

Don

2:38

Hi Jay, is there a way to look at splits for catcher framing stats according to which pitcher is being caught?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

alas, not that I know of

Guardians Fan

2:39

I think Juan Soto deserves the MVP the most what do you think

Jay Jaffe

2:39

I think that Harper and Tatis are probably the top two candidates at this point, and that even among those two there's no clear-cut choice

Rick

2:40

Lot of swing and miss in the sss for Duran of Boston and Marsh in LA. Anything you see more than just growing pains ?

Jay Jaffe

2:43

I haven't seen much of either, to be honest, but they're different prospects — Marsh is 23 and a 60 FV guy who has found a way to be at least modestly productive in his first taste of major league action while Duran is 25, a 50 FV prospect, and might be classified as a Replacement Level Killer. I don't think either will come close to their ceilings while striking out 35%% or more, but I'd also say it's probably too early to panic.

WinTwins0410

2:43

Jay (this piggybacks on Spielberg's question), I've been enjoying reading the Cooperstown Casebook (plug: every FanGraphs reader should own and read the Casebook!) and I was wondering: Was there a reason you didn’t mention Harold Baines anywhere in it? (I know that the Casebook came out well before Baines got in.). Was it the case that you really hadn’t seen any likelihood of him getting in anytime soon? (By “anytime soon,” I mean anytime soon in the years after the Casebook was published.)

Jay Jaffe

2:45

Baines wasn't at all on my radar when the book was written, but also, I was about 80 pages past my original word count and had to leave a whole bunch of 1970s/80s guys out of the Further Consideration sections at each position. Dave Parker comes to mind.

Ben

2:46

Are Andrelton Simmons', Anthony Rendon's, and Stephen Strasburg's HoF chances toast after this year or do you hold out any hope for any of them?

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