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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/17/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of September. I apologize for that — this current time slot hasn't worked out well lately with dad duties and so I'm going to explore moving to a 12 pm time slot
2:02
Anyway, I've got a piece up today about the returns of Buxton and Correa to a Twins team that has been pretty bad lately https://blogs.fangraphs.com/byron-buxton-and-carlos-correa-are-back-bu...
Yesterday I checked in on Eugenio Suárez's turnaround and how it's helped the Diamondbacks take hold of a Wild Card spot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarezs-extended-hot-streak-contin...
Anyway, on with the show
Insert Witty Name Here
2:02
So uhhh….where ya been?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
A lot of times that I miss the chat it's because I have to pick up my daughter from school or (in the summer) camp.   Just tough to get around needing to happen in the middle of a chat.
Cromulent
2:04
What does your crystal ball see in 2025 for Kershaw, Buehler, Verlander, Scherzer, de Grom?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
Prediction? Pain.

I'm not terribly optimistic that JV, CK and MS have much left in the tank; penciling any one of them in for 30 starts is a fool's errand, and while they may show flashes of previous glories when things go right, we're nearing the end of the line on all of them.

I wouldn't count on deGrom staying healthy for tremendously long, throwing as hard as he does, but I think he can be effective when available. Buehler needs to buy into a new plan of attack with the weapons he still has rather than trying to pitch like he did pre-surgery. Not sure it will be with the Dodgers, though.
ChrisS
2:07
Can you rank potential Yankees 1B next season: Ben Rice, Rizzo, Alonso, Josh Bell, some rando?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Alonso is by far the best of that bunch. Rizzo looks cooked. Rice I don't see enough bat for sustained success. Bell is the guy you trade for on July 30 when your Plan A has gone to seed.
Phil
2:09
Do you think Ohtani's 50/50 run is in part because he isn't pitching?  Do you think that he can put everything together to get to a 12-13 WAR season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
The 50/50 and the lack of pitching are definitely linked. That's a lot of extra wear and tear on his body — not to mention risk — that he wouldn't be putting himself through if he had to start in a day or two. I can't see him running with that frequency if he's pitching. He may be Superman but even Superman has his limits.
(if you are the kind of comic book geek inclined to get pedantic about Superman's limits, thank you for riding but  please exit the bus at the next stop)
Guest
2:11
How significant was Posey’s involvement in the Chapman extension
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
It would seem to be a strong signal that Zaidi's days are numbered. When the POBO isn't in the loop, that's a bad sign
2:13
The Athletic's Andrew Baggarly has some good inside baseball on this https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5770168/2024/09/15/sf-giants-matt-cha...
Sonny
2:14
If the Mets win the pennant this year would you prioritize The Hamburgler or Officer Big Mac if you were a POBO looking to make an impactful offseason addition?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Hamburglar, as the team ranks 10th in the NL in stolen bases
2:15
Ugh, i just realized while looking that up that Lindor needing three steals to get to 30 (to pair with his 31 homers) is much less likely given the current state of his back.
Tony
2:16
If you had to rank Machado, Jose Ramirez, and Arenado in order of Hall of Fame likelihood, how would you do it, or are all three already in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I think Arenado and Machado are pretty much there; Arenado has the most hardware but is also the oldest by over a year, Manny the most likely to fare well in an elder-stateseman-on-a-contender role, and Ramirez with the most work to do as far as traditional stats, but he's fared the best of the three in MVP voting. I think all three will get in eventually but would rank their current likelihood in that order.
wheelhouse
2:19
is it really a reach at this point to say that volpe isn't an MLB-caliber everyday hitter? obviously his defense exceeding expectations buoys him enough that he's a good everyday player, but 2 full seasons in he's both bad and looks like he's getting worse
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
I think that's overstating things. Right now he's a light-hitting shortstop, below average offensively but certainly good enough when combined with his plus-plus defense to be an everyday player. He's also just 23, and there's still time for his offensive skills to improve. He needs to make better decisions and better adjustments at the plate, but that's hardly out of reach.

In short, Yankees fans complaining about a 3.5-win SS need to chill the F out. He's not Jeter. Deal with it.
Benjamin, J
2:23
Has Clase done enough to start examining him in Cooperstown updates? If he leads the league in saves again, he would be the first closer to do so three years in a row since Craig Kimbrel and he's posting a season arguably worthy of a Cy Young vote
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
No. He's off to a great start but closers, like everyone else, need staying power in order to build a HOF case, just like every other position
Guest
2:23
Can you please say something positive about the Tigers to give my brain the dopamine hit it needs today?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I'm pleasantly surprised that we're in the second half of September and they've still got a fighting shot at a playoff spot. I expect them to fall short but this is a big step forward after so many crummy years.
Matt VW
2:25
During Saturday's broadcast, Youkilis suggested that the Red Sox bullpen problems have been due to overwork as the starters struggled to log innings earlier in the year. I think it's more a matter of the available arms just not being good enough. Which way do you lean on this question?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I think it's both. Their rotation is 17th in innings so it wouldn't be a surprise if some of their relievers are  overworked, but a quick look at their strikeout rates tells me they also don't have enough high-end arms in their current unit. Relief pitching is so volatile, and player paths so malleable, that I don't think the situation is hopeless but they do need some upgrades.
Guest
2:29
Detmers' 3.77 ERA in 2022 going to be his career watermark forever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I wound't give up hope. He's 24 and missing more bats than ever, and his xERA based on K/BB and quality of contact is a career-best 3.90. There's room for growth, though it would almost certainly help if he were somewhere besides Anaheim.
not Rickey
2:30
Skenes, Merrill, or Chourio for NL ROY ??
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Very tough call. Certainly impressed by Skenes and could see him winning but what the two Jacksons have done as regulars on contenders is impressive as well. If I had a ballot right now I'd lean Merrill for his taking up a new position and for his late-inning magic but I don't think there's a wrong answer here.
AL Central Casting
2:32
Do you think we'll ever see a player with a triple-digit uniform number in an official game? (My thought was that eventually a team would retire so many numbers that SOMEONE would have to wear it, but maybe baseball doesn't last that long.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
more likely we see an 08 or 09 or something than a triple-digit number but even then it seems unnecessary.
not Rickey
2:32
Through June 1st Chourio was at a 60 wRC+ with a 27.3 K% and 0.0 WAR. Since then he is at a 151 wRC+ with a 16.5 K% and 3.7 WAR. No question just WOW
Steve
2:33
Jay, can I ask a HOF related question?  I have your book and I noticed no mention of a SP that IMO deserves mention.  I'm just curious about your opinion of this player (Rick Reuschel)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
Because I was far past my word count (imagine that), I ended up having to cut capsules for a lot of deep cut-type candidates of yesteryear and Big Daddy was one of them. I wrote about him here in 2022: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-best-of-the-unens...

He's a sabermetric darling who didn't have a whole lot of star power, and so I really don't think he's got much of a chance under the current system.
Mike
2:36
Thanks for writing about the Twins, but man, given the state of our fandom, I don't know who will read that......everyone on that team slumping (or hurt) at the same time is a killer. Julien forgetting how to hit is a real killer, no one saw taht coming (unlike Buxton, Lewis, and CC being hurt, everyone saw that).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
If I wrote only for the fan bases of the team in question I wouldn't last long at this. But yeah, if you're a Twins fan I get it, it's a drag right now but at least the guys coming back (Buxton and Correa) are the kind of difference-makers who can really have a big impact in a short time. That pitching, though, yeesh.
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