JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/23

Jay Jaffe

2:04

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat — the first one in two weeks. It's been a lively time around Casa Jaffe-Span lately due to pending real estate transactions; I missed last week's caht and was late setting this one up. Since i'm also late in securing lunch, I'm going to let the queue fill up for a few more minutes and then light this candle.

Chadwick

2:08

Is this the stadium proposal that gets done in St. Pete?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

This isn't just a proposal, they actually appear to have a deal, so yes. Other than the fact that they literally could not get any other deals done until now, what I don't get is how this one solves one of the big problems that Tropicana Field has faced, which is simply getting to the ballpark given its location.

Because this park will be right near the current one

2:13

and it's a dome, not even a retractable.

it will be interesting to see how this ignites the discussion of expansion to 32 teams. When I wrote about Salt Lake City's surprising bid, it was clear that solving the Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues was necessary and both have now been, uh, dealt with.

Gage Harrison

2:16

With this years injury at Dodger Stadium, has Judge ruined his chances at the HOF? What would he need to do next year and the following years to still be a solid case?

Jay Jaffe

2:19

For Judge it's a missed opportunity to have a big season, but even with jsut 3.4 bWAR, he's improved his peak score

2:21

So he's now at 40.4/40.7/.40.6 and still has some low-hanging fruit to improve that peak score. Wrote about his case — which is going to be a concentrated, high-peak one due to his late start — here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...

2:22

(apologies, I've got some incoming work communiques to tend to amid all of this)

Front office

2:22

Do you see aj preller and Brian cashman keeping their jobs for much longer? I almost get the sense each of their styles would suit the opposite franchise better than the current

Jay Jaffe

2:23

Despite their teams' disappointing seasons and some anger from their fan bases, there's zero sign so far that either of them is on the hot seat from ownership; unless they decide to walk away, the job will be theirs for at least another year.

2:25

That said, it's clear that changes are coming to both organizations this winter. Probably a new manager in San Diego, and a lot of roster turnover. Definitely some front office overhaul in New York based on what Hal Steinbrenner said a few weeks ago about outside consulting evaluating the org (ugh, the McKinseyfication of baseball)

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:26

How many years until the Contreras brothers are the best brother catching duo in MLB history?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

i'm not sure they'll ever get there. Even if you're only counting fWAR (to capture some of the framing), Yadier and Bengie Molina have totaled 66.2, the Contreri 25.3, and I'm skeptical that Willson remains at catcher for the entirety of his career.

Mike M

2:28

I've heard a few people comment that the long list of injury woes for Dodgers pitchers is partly the fault of the organization and not just random bad luck. Perhaps due to the club trying to max out their pitcher's speed at the expense of the pitcher's health, etc. I've also heard Tampa can also be grouped in here. What do you think? Are these analytically-advanced clubs worse for their pitchers' health? Do the clubs deserve blame? Is this something that deserves more discussion, or is just hot air?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

That's a good question that deserves a longer look but offhand it seems like it's mostly hot ai. The Rockies lost two pitchers to Tommy John surgery, as did both the Dodgers and Rays, this year and I don't think anyone would describe them as foremost in analytics. The Angels will have three once Ohtani gets his, and same.

What could be happening is that the success of the Dodgers and Rays in playing deeper into October is taxing those arms more than teams that don't go to the playoffs

(and to be clear, arm injuries are about just more than TJ surgery tallies)

Rays

2:31

Odds the new stadium really boosts attendance long term despite still not being in Tampa?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

after an initial improvement, probably pretty slim, esp. if the new place seats only 30,000

Steve

2:32

Jay,
Just thinking about Harold Baines’ career and the power of milestones. He finished his career with 2866 hits, 488 doubles, and 386 home runs and dropped off the ballot after his second year. His teams also lost 75% of a season during his career due to the 1981 strike and 1994/1995 strike. I suspect if those strikes did not happen, he would have achieved 500 doubles and 400 home runs and gotten close enough to 3,000 hits that he might tried to extend his career to achieve that milestone. If he had ended his career with 3,000/500/400, would he have been voted into the hall of fame by the writers even though his value by WAR would probably not have dramatically changed?

Jay Jaffe

2:34

he'd have been first-ballot because of the 3,000 hits. Nobody in 2007 was paying attention to WAR because neither FanGraphs nor B-Ref had introduced their version of it, and few voters were paying attention to Baseball Prospectus' WARP and JAWS (trust me, i know this)

That's how Jim Rice got elected, after all

2:34

Votto is a slam-dunk HoFer at this point, right?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

I'd say pretty close to slam dunk. Advanced stats and voters both love him

gonna make certain Cincinnati scribes SOOO MAD

Eric

2:35

What's the likely timeline for MLB expansion now that the Rays and A's stadium situations have an end in sight?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

I expect we'll hear something at the All-Star break if not before

Asian baseball hype train

2:35

Would you rather see a KBO or NPB game?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

yes.

2:36

I'd watch both if they had easy availability here in the US

not every day, mind you, but I'd love to check out the stars of each league

Carlos Ruiz

2:37

Hi Jay. Given that he's now retired, do you have thoughts on how Cole Hamels will be received by HOF voters? My first thought is he stacks up well to his time but if he's evaluated on earlier standards might fall short

Jay Jaffe

2:39

I can see him lingering around the bottom of the ballot for a few years like Mark Buehrle (he's 71st in JAWS, Buehrle 78th). I'm more inclined to vote for him than Buehrle — he packed a bit more value into about 500 fewer innings — but I don't see him gaining much traction

AL Central Casting

2:40

Are you looking forward to zombie-runner-free baseball in the postseason? Will it feel weird or refreshing (or both)? At some point, will we all be so used to starting extra innings with a runner on that it does feel strange to have no one on? And will that make it easier to eventually implement it in future postseasons (not that I want it)?

Jay Jaffe

2:42

Honestly I generally stop paying attention to extra-inning games after the 10th because the rule is so dumb and 3- or 5- run innings seem common the deeper you dig into the bullpen (case in point, the Dodgers' 6-2 win in 11 over the Mariners on Saturday, after the two teams went scoreless through 9).

So I welcome the return of Real Baseball in October

2024

2:43

What's the best way to understand how much a team has on contracts next year? RosterResource is great but we don't have arbritration projections yet.

Jay Jaffe

2:43

I don't think anyone in the industry has arbitration projections. yet, so I think you're on your own until about mid-October when we start to see those

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