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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/2/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all enjoyed your three-day weekends. I had a lovely one here, one that included a surprise solo parenting job as I took my daughter and her friend to see the Brooklyn Cyclones on Sunday; my wife planned to go instead of the friend, but came down with a migraine (ugh). Fortunately, it all went well, everybody had fun and I came home with the same number of kids I brought.
12:02
I've got a thing on Walker Buehler joining the Phillies that's about to go live. Did some injury roundups as they pertain to contenders late last week. Here's the NL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/watch-those-fingers-a-roundup-of-recent-in...
pour one out for Corey Seager, yeesh.
Ok, on with the show...
Thank you!
12:04
Would you try to extend any yanks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
In terms of those with some urgency, I think it's worth broaching the subject with the representatives of Luke Weaver and Trent Grisham (pending free agents) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (about to head into his final arbitration year). Maybe Clarke Schmidt as well; he's a Super Two with two years of arb eligibility left, one of which will be taken up by recovery from Tommy John surgery.
Dan
12:06
My brother has long held a theory that Giancarlo Stanton would hit better if he played the field because it would keep his lower half loose. Is this last month evidence that he's right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
It's an interesting theory, at least.
Oaktown Blues
12:09
How do yoy feel about the A's playoff chances in 2026? The position player core feels ready, and they've found some promising pitchers (Lopez, Morales, Perkins), but will it be enough?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
They're heading for 74-75 wins in a division that has three teams playing above .500 this year. I think there's some promise there, for sure, but I don't yet see enough pitching, and given the conditions in Sacramento, I think they'll again have problems attracting free agents who aren't of the bounceback-hoping variety (i.e., like Severino).
Matt VW
12:13
With the recent and apparently abiding emphasis in launch angle, is Jim Rice's single season GIDP record sneaky unassailable?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
On the contrary, Junior Caminero has 28 GIDP as we enter September, just eight off of Rice's record of 36. Michael Baumann wrote about Junior back in July https://blogs.fangraphs.com/if-junior-caminero-had-any-more-gdps-hed-b...
Chava Frumkin
12:14
If Blake Snell wins another CYA, is he automatically in the HoF? His WAR seems very low...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I think a third Cy would give Snell a leg up on the competition but so much is going to depend upon how BBWAA voters reckon with the lighter workloads of starters from this era. I have a hard time believing the (we) are going to prioritize recognizing Snell's intermittent greatness (the process of which has its aesthetic drawbacks, to say the least) than the Cy-less consistency of Zack Wheeler.
12:17
I'd put Wheeler, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom ahead of Snell for this era, which isn't to say yet that I'd vote for all of them.
Chava Frumkin
12:18
The same number of kids, but not the same kids?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Believe me, I checked.
They were the originals.
12 to 6
12:18
buehler in philly vs. la basically because la couldn’t guarantee starts, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
I didn't directly address that in the piece above but I suspect that may have been a factor. The Dodgers rotation has been pretty good lately, and with the exception of Emmet Sheehan subbing for the rehabbing Roki Sasaki, the production is coming from the guys you'd expect. The Phillies, given the loss of Wheeler and the pending innings cap (and AAA struggles) of Andrew Painter had need for a sixth starter and boom, there was one available. It's entirely possible Buehler liked the idea of a fresh start with a different organization instead of going back to LA and revisiting some frustrations (though obviously it ended up well for him).
Phil
12:22
Sorta scratching my head at the Andrew Heaney signing. Even in a bullpen role, not sure how he's any better than what's currently on their 40-man roster.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
On the other hand... (I actually missed this news). Heaney has spent his entire career being as enigmatic (and sometimes as ineffective) as recent-vintage Buehler, but he did pitch very well in LA in 2022, with a 3.10 ERA and 3.75 FIP. So maybe they see things they can revisit to get him back on track.
Sam
12:24
What do the Phillies do with their outfield in the off season and next year? Bader is better than everyone else out there now, but the outfield is still bad for a contender, and they made the Fangraphs naughty list for all 3 OF positions this year. Do they actually do something to address the problem or will the same below average platoons continue next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
They'll have to do something, and they won't run it back with this exact cast, as Kepler is a pending free agent, Bader has a mutual option. Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger,  and Trent Grisham are among the potential free agents out there; my hunch is that they make a run at one, and they also have to figure out what to do regarding Kyle Schwarber's free agency and the walking sunk cost that is Nick Castellanos.
Ha-Seong Kim
12:28
Thoughts on me getting picked up by the Braves?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
A curious move — I didn't expect him to change teams at this juncture — but the Braves have gotten just a 52 wRC+ from Nick Allen at shortstop so why not try something different?
Stu
12:31
Hi, Jay. Do you think the Mets can put the pieces together and make a deep postseason run?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Sure. I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, but our Playoff Odds give them a 6.6% chance of winning the World Series, the majors' eighth-best odds. The debuts of Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong have injected some new life into that rotation, for one thing.
Lowe Distribution System
12:34
Atlanta took on significant payroll this year, for the privilege of paying Kim $16M next year.  That suggests they see the Kim contract as a good deal.  If it's a good deal, then why didn't the Rays deal him for something?  Basically, I think either TB or ATL has to be wrong in their evaluation, so which is it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
It doesn't have to be either/or. Kim's recovery from shoulder surgery and then his lower back strain limited him to 10 games before the trade deadline; he was on the IL at the time which would have undercut the Rays' attempt to get value for him. Past the deadline, they could only get players outside the 40-man roster, so they decided they'd rather have the money.
Michael Jones
12:38
What do you think of the Braves move claiming Kim?  Do you think he exercises his player option?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I think it's going to be tough to get $16M next year given how little he's played this year, and he's got a clear path to a starting job if he's healthy, and on a team that has generally been a contender lately.
TokTok Woodman
12:40
What playoff races are you most interested in (if any)?  Are teams fighting to win a bye all that interesting?  Does seeding even matter?  The AL East seems like it could become very tight at the top, so that could be fun, as could maybe the Western divisions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
We've got three divisions where the leader has a cushion of three games or less: the AL East (a three-team race) and the two Wests. There's definitely a lot to play for there, including the bye. Is it as fun as it would be with one fewer playoff team and the potential for tiebreaker games à la Team Entropy? No, but it's not nothing.
Dogs
12:42
When are the dog days of summer? Half the MLB season is summer, but half the season can't be for the dogs can it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
I didn't know this until recently but the dog days actually refers to a specific stretch from early July to mid-August, ending with the appearance of Sirius ("the Dog Star") in the night sky.
Perry
12:45
Carlos Correa made a run at the GDP record a few years ago. Wish he had gotten there in retrospect (not bitter).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Correa had 30 in 2023. The closest anybody besides Rice (who also had a season with 35 GID) has gotten is 32, last by Billy Butler in 2010.
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