JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 9/2/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 9/2/25

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Wrights_Back

12:46

Does WAR capture volatility and if so, how would one incorporate it into analysis?  EG, I believe WAR used in conversations is the mean WAR of the player.   But is it normally or evenly distributed?

I would think (guess)   a 6WAR player has 'negative convexity' - eg, his chances of being 3 WAR must be greater than his chances of being 9WAR.

A mismash of a question composed on the fly.  But something I've been thinking about.

Jay Jaffe

12:49

Back near the end of my tenure at Baseball Prospectus, Colin Wyers wrote about the error bars attached to defense. I'm paraphrasing here but the less playing time (and chances) at a position the wider the error bars. The problem is that if you tell somebody that Aaron Judge's WAR is 7.2 ± 0.8 but that Bobby Witt Jr's is 6.8 ± 0.4, the general public is going to get confused and complain about this nerd stuff.

12:50

So we settle on a single figure, and acknowledge that differences in WAR that are less than 1 win are not particularly meaningful given our uncertainty, particularly about defense.

Transmission

12:50

The Ortiz and Clase disciplinary leave suspensions originally ran through August 31st. Now that we're back from Labor Day weekend do you expect we will hear anything from MLB? Or are they going to just wait us out and release their findings in the middle of the night sometime in December?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

at this point I expect the leave will run through the remainder of the season. For all we know, the case could be even bigger than just these two players and othes will be implicated. We've seen from the league's handling of domestic violence cases that it's in not always in a rush to hand down a punishment; keeping a player out of action (while getting paid) on admin leave at least prevents the on-field results from being further affected by these players' presence.

War2D2

12:55

Hi Jay! Cade Horton has been pitching out of his shoes for two solid months. Going by Eric’s grades, it’s entirely possibly we’ve already seen the best two months of his career. If you had a RoY vote where would you rank him? How much more would he have to do to get your top spot?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

I haven't thought much at all about the Rookie of the Year races but I'd think Horton would be the top NL pitcher under consideration, with position players like Isaac Collins, Caleb Durbin, and Drake Baldwin all in the discussion as well.

Sleve McDichael

12:59

Is Nick Kurtz basically Yordan Alvarez? Does going .300/.400/.600 over your first 400 MLB appearances nearly ensure that you're an MVP contender from here on out?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Good question. Kurtz does have the second-highest OPS+ of any 22-year-old with at least 350 PA:

1:01

However, many of the players on that list reached the majors before their age-22 seasons, an indication of higher ceilings. Alvarez did debut in his age-22, so you may not be totally off base but I'd caution that Kurtz is doing what he's doing by playing half his games in a minor league ballpark, so I'm not going to pencil him in an Alvarez-like dominance just yet.

Guest

1:02

Do the Yankees trade one of Dominguez/Jones for a front line SP

Jay Jaffe

1:03

I don't think either of them is going to be the headliner in a package for a frontline SP. With Fried, Rodon, and eventually Cole next year, I don't think a run at another frontliner is likely in Hal Steinbrenner's universe, either. I expect them to do more to bolster the 3-4-5 while addressing some lineup holes.

sb4321

1:05

Julio Rodriguez has 20 career fWAR and he's only 24 years old. He hasn't had an MVP level season yet either. Assuming he is consistently a 4-5 win player for the majority of his career and he plays around 10-15 more years in the majors, could he have an argument for being a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

"Assuming he is consistently a 4-5 win player for the majority of his career and he plays around 10-15 more years in the majors" puts just about anybody in a Hall of Fame conversation. But yes, Julio is off to a good start, and he gets a mention in my upcoming Hall of Fame progress report.

Dan the Mets Fan

1:08

Mets playoff rotation should be Megill/Peterson/McLean/Tong right?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Even without checking where the two rookies stand as far as their workloads and histories, that's probably more than the Mets are going to ask of them. I suspect that they're much more likely to include Senga after giving him a bit of rest and hoping to get him right.

Hans Bhimji-Walker

1:09

Hi Jay, Do you think Corbin Caroll has MVP potential? The power seems to be real

Jay Jaffe

1:10

I don't see him winning this year but he's very clearly one of the best players in the NL and I'd expect his name to come up in MVP discussions at some point.

Key Flaw

1:10

With expansion talk abuzz, what would it take to get one or two teams in the NY area? Historically, obviously, there were three, and to help with financial parity having more is good. MLB stepped in and forced Baltimore to allow DC to have a team in their area (and then screwed them on the deal later), so they CAN do something. But what would it take to add the Brooklyn Robins and North Jersey Meadowlands? (possibly in addition to a few other expansion teams)

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Of all the things that aren't happening, a third MLB team in the NY area is high on the list unless MLB's century-old antitrust exemption vanishes overnight. The Yankees and Mets have territorial rights that would preclude this and, uh, more juice than the Orioles did when it comes to the commissioner and the league pushing them around.

dfbgfbrg

1:13

cal for MVP?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I made the case last week... and then Judge had a big week. If I had a vote I'd be waiting until the final days of the season to decide. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cal-raleigh-has-set-a-record-and-leveled-t...

Pinstriped Problems

1:14

Jasson Dominguez hasn't actually been that good this year. Is this just proof he is more average player than star?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

Assuming that a 22-year-old player's current performance is his ceiling is a mistake, particularly in an age when player career paths are more malleable than ever. Dominguez — who let's not forget played just 58 minor league games and 18 major league games last year after recovering from Tommy John surgery — has been a league-average-ish hitter (101 wRC+) but has had some issues with strikeouts and defense. Both are areas he needs to address but it's not at all unfathomable that he improves.

Johnny5Alive

1:18

How much has Soto's july-august posted him into an MVP discussion? He's doing things not done since bonds in terms of power -speed (what?) - and getting on base.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Not much. He's hit on par with last year since the start of June but the slow start and crummy defense suppress his WAR; he's eighth in our rankings and I don't expect him to leapfrog the field unless he hits .500 and helps the Mets snatch the NL East away in September.

Nate

1:19

what Waldreps been doing is amazing. Do you think he’s shown enough to be a solidly above average starter for the next few years?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

He's been remarkable so far. We've got a Waldreps piece on the docket for tomorrow that will probably do much more to answer your question than I could on the fly.

2131, 1312

1:21

Is Isaac Paredes still getting traded this offseason, or do the Astros try to juggle Altuve wherever and move Carlos Correa around the infield until Paredes's contract is up? I just remember how this spring everybody was raving about how good of a fit he is for Daiken park

Jay Jaffe

1:23

A trade wouldn't surprise me but I do wonder if the Astros would try Paredes or Correa at second with the other one at third, and give Altuve another year to try to hold down left field.

Johnny5Alive

1:23

What's the worst player that could get in if they hit a milestone? I'm thinking about Alonso and while a lot can happen between now and then and he got a late start. But he'll be 31 going into next season. He's a bat only guy who crushes homers. So maybe he doesn't have a long tail, but he's averages 40 per season to this point, if he averages 30 per season for another 7, he's basically right there. But all the other metrics would be bad. Any shot in this type of case?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

Harold Baines and his phantom 3,000th hit have already answered your question, I think. Much as I enjoy Pete Alonso, the problem is that sooner or later on the road to 500 homers a lack of secondary skills will catch up to him so this is a hypothetical I'm not going to spend too much time mulling.

Michael conforto

1:26

Why are the dodgers still playing him?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I suspect that when they get Edman and Kim back, they're going to do some experimenting in the outfield and it could very well cut into Conforto's time.

Ok folks, i've got a lot on my plate today so it's time to call it. Thanks so much for stopping by! We'll do this again soon.

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