JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/20/18

Jay Jaffe

12:02

Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat! Thanks for stopping by. I don't have anything witty to say, but the thumb is healing nicely — had my two stitches out on Sunday and the thing no longer looks like a trainwreck in a plate of rigatoni. Let's get to it.

stever20

12:03

totally get what you think should happen with Sale and the AL Cy Young. But what do you think will happen should Sale not get to 162 innings? Does he have a realistic shot?

Jay Jaffe

12:05

That's a very good question, and with the Red Sox taking a particularly conservative approach such that he'll fall short of 162 innings (he's at 150 and figures to have two turns left, both possibly after his team clinches the division) I think the race might be up in the air. I'm starting to think that Blake Snell's combination of 20 wins and an ERA title might carry the day, regardless of the strikeouts (where he's a respectable but not dominant 8th) and the advanced metrics.

tb.25

12:05

What does JAWS say about Chris Sale? I realize I haven't seen much on his HOF candidacy except his appearance on some JAWS tables (and if you've written about him, forgive me!)

Jay Jaffe

12:10

Sale's at 43.0 WAR as he nears the end of his age-29 season, which isn't historic but is 11th since the start of 1969. It's a mixed bag in his neighborhood, with five obvious HOF types at the top (Clemens, Blyleven, Kershaw, Pedro, Maddux) at 50.5 to 62.8, then Felix at 50.0, Appier at 45.8 (big drop), Seaver 45.3, Saberhagen 44.9, CC Sabathia at 43.4 and then Sale; Verlander's 9 spots lower at 36.4 and there are guys like Stieb, Gooden, Tanana and Zambrano between them, with Mussina (37.7) the only real HOF type guy in the middle.

Bottom line: it's all going to depend on Sale's ability to carry this into his 30s, and avoid what happened to Felix, but he's got a good base to build upon.

pkddb

12:11

Using whatever method you feel needed, was there a more dominant pitcher you have experienced in your adult life than Pedro in his prime?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

Pedro's numbers are remarkable, as was his performance, but Randy Johnson had a more visceral quality about his dominance — the capacity to induce sheer terror with that height, that reach and that velocity — as well as remarkable durability, which I think together place him ahead of Pedro within my own pantheon.

12:13

Touki looked better yesterday than Teheran or Newcomb have been recently... Any chance he gets the nod as 4th starter in the NLDS?

Jay Jaffe

12:16

I think I've had a Teheran question in every single chat I've done at FanGraphs thus far. It's very clear that the Braves value Teheran's experience and durability beyond the numbers, and I can't imagine him not getting a start in the playoffs if he's healthy, given the lack of experience elsewhere in the rotation.

With 16 walks in 23 big league innings standing as the entire body of a 22-year-old's major league work, I'd be shocked if Touki is a playoff starter unless there's an injury elsewhere.

Sacred of my own shadow

12:16

The Oakland A's are going to make the playoffs right? Tell me it's going to be okay because I'm running dangerously low on Ativan.

Jay Jaffe

12:17

They have a 5.5-game lead over the Rays with 10 games remaining. Our odds have them at 99.4%. Relax.

Bork

12:18

Puig's moonshot last night was fueled by rage. His house was robbed for a FOURTH time.

Jay Jaffe

12:20

Maybe he should hire a couple security guards?

I'm loathe to draw too much of a connection between the robbery and the home run, but Puig is a player whose ability to focus seems to vary widely. When he's locked in, though — well, we've seen what can happen.

Imamonsterman

12:20

Luke Voit huh? Seems like the Yankees have found something pretty good

Jay Jaffe

12:23

He's been a great addition, a big upgrade over both Bird and Tyler Austin. He's got a 180 wRC+ since joining the Yankees on August 2; that's 5th among players with at least 60 PA in that span and tops among those who were dealt in the days/weeks leading up to the deadline, though Tommy Pham (173) has a 20-PA advantage (124 to 104)

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=season...

Joe

12:23

I'm curious if you think the playoff odds models could be made better by a higher drift rate. This year in particular the models are making particularly extreme predictions for the playoffs that don't reflect the revealed quality of the squads involved.

Jay Jaffe

12:25

You know that there are multiple versions of our odds page, right? You can look at the season-to-date version (https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/season-to-date/div) or the coin flip version (https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/coin-flip/div) as a contrast to our projection-driven one.

Vslyke

12:25

The A's suddenly have a severe OF crunch - do you think any of Laureano, Fowler, Canha, Martini, or Piscotty will be dealt this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

12:28

Fowler's been so bad that he's probably back in Triple A next year and Martini's a 28-year-old rookie with 45 games under his belt. Hell, Laureano has only played 39 games. The A's can deal from strength in this area if they choose but I don't see this is a severe situation — it's not like we're talking about a bunch of guys with long track records of success.

Nate

12:29

What player has been hurt the most in the HOF voting by the 5 year wait period? Pete Rose? McGwire?

Jay Jaffe

12:33

Those might be the top two. I do wonder what would have happened had the Rose stuff not blown up before he was elected. I think the Hall would have been placed in a very awkward position.

BTW, I think the "What about Pete Rose" response when it comes to the question about how the Hall should handle PED users is about the dumbest thing that can come out of a person's mouth. The difference is massive in terms of breaking a rule whose consequences had been clear for more than half a century versus one where there was legality (in the case of andro) and no enforceability (in the case of MLB's Vincent-era paper ban on PEDs).

Trout is our Lord and Savior

12:33

Is this the best version of Mike Trout that you've seen? Do you think he could actually win AL MVP this season?

Jay Jaffe

12:36

The defensive metrics give a clear edge to his 2012 rookie season but he's a better hitter now, for sure. I do think that Betts, who has missed about as much time and yet has a similarly astronomical WAR, will win the award due to the bonus of his team making the playoffs versus the Angels' .500-ish showing.

Jake Junis Priest

12:37

Do you have a take on the Adam Jones situation? Nixed a deal because he was worried about losing playing time with the Phillies before free agency, but now the O's play him sparingly to "audition" the young talent, which is both true (Cedric Mullins) and false (Joey Rickard). Is it just pettiness? I'd been hoping the O's would bring him back as a veteran presence, but now...

Jay Jaffe

12:41

It's been a less-than-desirable outcome for both sides, but I don't see anything wrong with how either side has handled this. Jones, whose bond with the city of Baltimore is unique, exercised a right that players fought for and won over 45 years ago., and as he said, the Phillies were less than a perfect fit given the probability of him playing part-time at a relatively unfamiliar position as he heads into free agency. The Orioles, going nowhere, are looking to their next phase, which I think they have every reason to.

Willians A-su-su-studillo

12:41

How many extra votes does dark horse candidate JD get if he wins the triple crown?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

Hopefully fewer than Miguel Cabrera did in 2012, because we don't need a repeat of that. Winning the Triple Crown is very cool, but those stats are imperfect proxies for value, and defense should definitely matter, particularly when we're comparing an elite defender and a DH-caliber one.

Pat

12:45

I am always surprised when I see that Zack Greinke has more WAR than Verlander, among others. A. How is that? B. Is Greinke's career one that will end up being overlooked when HOF voting comes? He's played for a bunch of teams, most of them in small markets (& even LAD is a West Coast team), doesn't have one notable skill to hang his hat on, doesn't have notable post-season success, etc.

Jay Jaffe

12:47

Right, I need to write about Zack, who's having a very solid but not award-caliber season . Let me try to get to that sometime in the next week.

Jay

12:48

I'm assuming xFIP is a big component of pitching WAR...why not use xwOBA which directly measures the quality of contact? xFIP seems to assume league average damage on balls in play.

Jay Jaffe

12:52

xFIP is not actually used in our version of WAR. It's been around a lot longer than xwOBA, about which there's still some question as to what it's actually measuring (i.e., is it predictive). I know Craig Edwards was playing around with an xwOBA-driven version of WAR in his recent Cy Young breakdowns — might be worth asking his opinion on this stuff as it's more informed than mine.

Fahad

12:52

Lets talk about prospects.

Jay Jaffe

12:53

Your prospects for getting good prospect info out of me are nil. Best to wait for Kiley or Eric to chat.

Guest

12:53

Pretty sure you meant 5th there for Voit not 50th

Jay Jaffe

12:53

Whoops yes, transcript edited.

Guest

12:53

How would MLB handle a story of a current HOFer being on a steroid report? For example, what if it suddenly comes out that Pedro was on steroids? Would they spike the story? Do they remove him from the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

Spike the story? You think the Hall has that kind of power? ha. For as strident as the opinion of Joe Morgan and some of the institution's other board members may be, I have a hard time imagining the Hall opening Pandora's Box regarding a PED-related situation such as this. It would be a mess no matter how they handle it.

Roman Numeral Three

12:56

Speaking of Voit: if he hits one more home run for the Yanks, he'll be the *twelfth* person to have double digit homers in a Yankee uniform this season. That's more than crazy, right?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Wrote about this today https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-have-a-shot-at-some-home-r.... Historically, he thing about having so many players with 10+ homers is that it can indicate outstanding depth but also interchangeable mediocrity. Bird, Sanchez and Walker, for example, are part of that count and each has a wRC+ below 90; together they've combined for 1.0 WAR.

stever20

12:58

Do you think we're ever going to see a limiting of the September roster callups?

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