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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the final week of the 2020 regular season. In connection with that, I have the latest installment of my Team Entropy series here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/team-entropy-2020-still-on-the-tables/
2:02
Yesterday I looked at Justin Verlander's Tommy John surgery and its impact on the Astros' postseason rotation as well as his pursuit of some big milestones https://blogs.fangraphs.com/justin-verlanders-tommy-john-surgery-throw...
2:04
Meanwhile, not mine but i just finished reading a piece from The Athletic about the mid-'80s White Sox as early pioneers in biomechanics, complete with video of Tom Seaver's drop-and-drive delivery https://theathletic.com/2079123/2020/09/22/with-tom-seaver-as-a-model-...
OK, on with the show
Cito's Mustache
2:04
If both #8 seeds were to upset the #1 seeds in the 3-game Wild Card series, would that give MLB pause to making the expanded postseason format permanent? A little chaos is good IMO. But too much, and the issue of fairness comes into question.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
First, I think it's important to remember through all of this that the players have a say in any new postseason format. I suspect that they will have it drilled into them that expanded playoffs increasingly reward mediocrity and could hit them in their wallets. Any expansion beyond the pre-2020 format needs to incentivize teams to win their divisions
and battle for best records rather than finishing around .500
Kylo Hondrocks
2:08
What sort of contract do you think Kris Bryant would have gotten this offseason had he won his service time grievance (which he should've won)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Well over $200 million, probably something in the general ballpark of Arenado's deal. Not gonna happen now with this injury-wracked season
Mountie Votto
2:10
Who do you think the Reds would be more likely to have a shot against, LA or the Cubs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
the Cubs. Reds have really struggled against lefties (85 wRC+) and in Kershaw and Urias, Dodgers have a stronger lefty presence than Cubs (Lester)
Travis
2:12
Assuming Sonny Gray comes back at full health, are the Reds the leading candidate to make a first round upset? That top three of the rotation could very easily dominate in a three game series, and the bullpen seems to have overcome its early season struggles. (Granted, the Offense sure seems to live or die by the Three True Outcomes)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Bauer, Castillo and Gray in any kind of order wouldn't be fun for any opponent, but half the battle is hitting, and the Reds just haven't produced offense at a level that gives them a strong shot
Trent Hauser
2:13
How will or should projection systems handle 2020 stats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
That's a question better directed at Dan Szymborski than myself, and a daunting challenge to consider. I do think you can't give it the same kind of weight as a full season. Sixty games is just sixty games, about 37% of a full season, and so somebody is going to have to figure out the weights
Truman
2:15
Hey Jay I had a question regarding the hall of fame case of Mark Buehrle, do you see him being a one and done or is he someone who might hang around on the ballot with no true threat of getting in.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
I think given his two no-hitters and World Series ring he has a nonzero shot at reaching 5% given the weakness of the ballot but i'd be surprised if he even approaches Pettitte's level of support (10-11%)
Nick
2:17
I saw recently that 4 of the 5 MLB teams with the longest playoff droughts are in line to make the playoffs this year.  How long until the Mariners finally break their streak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
They've had some good signs this year, with Kyle Lewis developing, Kyle Seager rebounding, and the Gonzalez/Sheffield/Dunn rotation core, but I guess it depends on whether the playoffs are expanded. I do think that the AL West is vulnerable to a shakeup, as it's clear that the Astros are due for a reshaping given so many free agents (plus Verlander's injury)
Anderson
2:21
Who has a better career ahead of him: Jared Walsh or Mike Yastrzemski?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
I'd lean toward Yaz despite the age gap as he's built the longer track record and can play the more difficult positions.
Guest
2:25
How about Freddie Freeman? He might win the MVP this year, which would help his Hall chances. His age similarity scores on BRef from ages 21-29 are all Eddie Murray. So I compared their stats from ages 21-30 (this is Freeman's age 30 season), and they are remarkably similar, however Murray is far ahead in bWAR. Still, if Freddie hits well over the next 5 years, he's probably in.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Freeman is building a decent case but he's going to need to reel off some 5- or 6-win seasons (via bWAR, he has just two of the former and one of the latter) as his peak score is just 31.9 versus a first base standard of 42.7. Also, I'd still lean towards Tatis or Betts as my NL MVP
oh my goodness gracious!
2:28
Kris Bryant has what is considered a serious oblique injury, what is the prognosis for his 2021 season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
If it's just oblique it shouldn't have an impact on 2021. If there's more to it than that, well, that's a different story
Upset
2:28
At what point do you even consider it an upset in this season? 4/5 is probably too close, 3/6 could be a big gap (Astros being terrible...), and so on. Teams, aside from the Dodgers really, haven't had time to fully separate from the pack.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I think short of the Dodgers losing in the first round there's just not enough separation between the teams to call the lower seeds winning upsets on the level of, say, the 1987 or '88 World Series
James
2:31
Will you adjust JAWS to deal with the 2020 season at all?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
no moreso than I've done for wars or strike seasons. they're all important context to bring to the discussion beyond a simple comparison of is this number big enough. Relative standing among players across larger timespans isn't going to change much, and I don' think anybody should be penalized for missed time.
James
2:33
How do you think Bauer will do on his first free agent contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
He's said as recently as this year that he will only sign one-year deals. So, i expect a one-year deal. Wouldn't surprise me if it's got incentives in it given that his two best seasons were relatively abbreviated (2018,27 starts 175.1 innings being theother one)
Nick
2:36
Do you follow the HOF voting in sports other than baseball?  Are there any favorite NFL, NHL, etc. players you think should be in their respective Halls of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
not really. Every now and then I see an NFL or NBA player who I recall from the periods when I followed more closely making it or being snubbed and it captures my interest for a moment, but that's about it.
Larry Jones
2:39
Final NL 4 spots, who is in? There are 5 teams with >50% odds, and the Giants at 36%. The Giants also have four left against San Diego, who might have the fourth seed locked up and nothing to play for by the time they play.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
See today's Entropy entry. Only one full game separates the Reds, Phillies, Brewers, and Giants but the latter two are sub-.500 in intradivisional play, four and five wins behind, respectively.
Mike Ortman
2:41
Yadi is closing in on that very helpful to ones HOF case 2000th hit. How high do you think he will make it on JAWS when his career is done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I don't think it's his JAWS that's going to get him in so much as his reputation and pitch-framing metrics (which aren't included in the version of bWAR used for JAWS). But JAWS-wise, in a best-case scenario maybe he adds another 3.0 WAR over two or three seasons, which would push him from a virtual tie for 23rd to 20th — still about eight points below the standard.
bill
2:43
What do you think of Yelich's HOF chances? Obviously early.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
his 0.5 WAR this year is a blow after two 7-win seasons but even with 50% fewer games played than Fab Freddie Freeman, his seven-year peak score of 31.8 is a bit closer to the standard in LF than FFF is at 1B. He'll have to bounce back, obviously, but if he did nothing but deliver a bunch of 5-win seasons for the next half decade before fading he'd probably be in really good shape
Cito's Mustache
2:48
I know it's a super small sample of 177 games, but Vlad Jr couldn't play third base, and looks equally bad at first. How good will he need to be at the plate in order to carry a DH profile to a Hall of Fame career? Peak Edgar Martinez for like 12+ years?
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