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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/23/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Monday chat. Excuse the slow start on my part – I've got a piece on Domingo German, DV suspensions, and the postseason that's going live soon and that requires more attention than most posts when it comes to an editorial pass. On a lighter note... well, things aren't great for Team Entropy (update coming tomorro) but we'll manage. And now, on with the show...
TomBruno23
12:03
How about that Cards-Cubs series?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I did not actually watch much of it, alas. Because the weather is so good here in NYC, and because the next few weekends will be so hectic, I spent much of my weekend with my daughter — her first trip to the Bronx Zoo on Saturday and then first to the Metropolitan Museum on Sunday. Very fun times.

Less so for the Cubs, apparently. Between their mounting injuries and the ongoing failures of Craig Kimbrel — who, let's face it, can't possibly be at 100% right now — it's a grim ending for them, and a bummer for #Team Entropy. It's an impressive showing by the Cardinals, and the fact that the Yelich-less Brewers have risen to the occasion while the Cubs have fizzled is impressive as well.
stever20
12:06
Where do you think Maddon is managing next year?  I'd think he'd look really nice in say DC.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Given that the Nationals have rebounded from their dreadful start to (likely) make the playoffs, I don't see Davey Martinez getting ousted. If it's an NL East landing spot for him, I suspect that the Phillies are the more likely destination — particularly when held in contrast to the Mets; i can't see them willing to pay his high salary or see him willing to sign on for the chaos that comes with working for the Wilpons. Maybe the Padres, but as with Philadelphia, the firing of the managers often suggests that the GM is next on the chopping block, so I'm not sure how attractive either scenario is.
Mike Sixel
12:10
Would you put either Gibson or Perez on the Twins post season roster?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I think a lot of it depends upon matchups. I'd consider Perez, who even during his second-half slide has still been effective against lefties. I wouldn't expect him to go five innings but there may be a relief role or a short-starter (opener, even) situation that makes sense. As for Gibson, it sounds like his illness has cost him so much strength and rendered him ineffective.
12:15
It's not really about the Yankees, it's about lining up the DV policy with the PED policy when it comes to postseason eligibility. I'm sure people have thoughts
Dave
12:16
Good god, are the Royals really going to hire Matheny?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
oh, that is f'ing perfect.
12:17
assume I'm pasting in 20 consecutive Skype ROFL emojis here.
TK
12:18
True/False: Marcus Semien is the player that Yankees fans think DJ LeMahieu is
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Uh... I'll go with false. I don't think anybody's laboring under the illusion that DJ is a slick-fielding shortstop, and I think that it's largely old school-minded media that believes he's an MVP candidate, not Yankees fans.

Semien has had an outstanding, 7.3 WAR season — nearly double last year's 3.9 WAR, while DJ has been very, very good at 5.4 WAR. He'd been as high as 4.4 WAR before, and while he's the older of the two players, I think we can just say that they've been among the season's biggest surprises, that their fans ought to be overjoyed at their contributions, and call it a day. It's not an either/or situation
andycannolis
12:22
If you were the Orioles GM and you had to make a protected list for an expansion draft, who would you put on that list?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
The obvious ones are the guys who have been worth at least 2 WAR this year, which is Villar, Mancini, Alberto, Means, and Bundy. Add to that anybody who was at least a 40-grade prospect at some point recently (Santander, Harvey, Tate, Stewart, and maybe I've missed some others). That still probably leaves you with plenty of room to add a few more fringe guys but those I think are the priorities.
Charles Logan
12:27
Would you vote for the following for the HOF if they retired right now (assuming yes for Kershaw): Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke and Sabathia?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
All of 'em, even while acknowledging that Sabathia's isn't as strong as the others.
Aaron Judge
12:28
Is it possible I am now underrated? 14 HR in the last 31 games, somehow 10th in AL position player bWAR (14th fWAR, though weirdly not showing up on lists because not technically qualified), missed two months.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Yes, i do believe a certain segment of the baseball world is underrating Judge due to his long absences. But holy Moses, they underestimate him at their peril.
Zilliax
12:31
Who do you think will be the Cub's manager in 2020? Girardi a good possibility?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
I think Girardi is a possibility but hardly automatic even given his previous Chicago connections. It's been reported that the team pursued Mark DeRosa and Raúl Ibañez — both of whose names come up quite often as potential firs-time managers — to add to Maddon's coaching staff last year as well as Aaron Boone, who obviously went a different direction. Carlos Beltran is another recently retired player who could draw interest, and maybe either Ron Wotus or Hensley Meulens if the Giants choose one over the other to succeed Bruce Bochy. Or both, if they go a very different direction.
Zilliax
12:35
If the Brewers take home field against the Nationals in the NL Wild Card, are they the favored team, even against Scherzer/Strasberg?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I'd say that the difference in quality of starting pitchers can easily outweigh the home field advantage, particularly given the gap between those two pitchers and Milwaukee's top starter, which is... uh, Teddy Higuera?
Guest
12:37
In general, do you prefer ERA or FIP when evaluating a guy for HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
ERA, but really ERA+. FIP is handy, particularly for looking forward, but over the course of the number of innings in question, the ERA is a truer indication of a pitcher's talent than FIP.
Guest
12:39
How many WAR does deGrom (32.3 bWAR) need over the next 3 seasons (ages 32-34) to give himself a reasonable HOF shot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
Probably at least 15. If we assume he does exactly that, he'd be at 49.4 career,  42.4 peak (both of those including offense) and 45.9 JAWS. That would put him a couple points of where Cole Hamels was heading into this year (his age-35). Raw win totals might still be a problem but if he wins this year's Cy and gives himself a shot at one more, i'd say he's in play
Emily
12:44
Thanks for your time Jay. What is a realistic return if the Red Sox were to trade Mookie Betts? Is the Goldschmidt deal a good template? Mookie is younger and better, but more expensive, same team control, and less receptive to an extension offer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
yeah i think the Goldschmidt deal is probably the template. And i think the Dbacks did pretty well there, given that Carson Kelly is a young two-way contributor at a premium position and that Luke Weaver appears to have taken a step forward. If Andy Young, the third player in the deal, helps, this could wind up looking like a heist, particularly if Goldschmidt's 2019 downturn is the beginning of the end.
hayden
12:49
The A's bullpenned last year's WC, which I thought was probably the right decision, though the results were panned as a death knell for the "opener." How should they handle this year's? The back-on-fire Manaea? The pitching-like-it's-2013 Homer Bailey? Just say eff it and give Luzardo his first GS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
I'd go with Manaea. He's their best pitcher, and neither the Rays nor the Indians have very big platoon splits. The Indians do have a pair of switch-hitters (Lindor and Santana) that could complicate things, but I think getting a few innings out of Manaea and going to the bullpen from there is the team's best bet.
Wes
12:51
After listening to you on the FanGraphs Podcast then the Ringer MLB Show, I think you need to appear more frequently on these.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
it's a rare day when I turn down a podcast request, so the door is open. I enjoy doing them, just don't have time to make one of my own.
Desperate Times
12:52
In light of Craig's Molina-in-4-graphs article, is there any way to quantify that in a catcher's worthiness for the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
the pitch-blocking and stolen base stuff is already part of BP's catcher metrics, as is pitch framing. And Molina does quite well there. it's the very modest offensive profile that I trip over and that suppresses his career WAR.
Cliff
12:54
Do the Dodgers jump into the Rendon race this off season or do they just plug Muncy at third and roll with Lux at 2B and Turner at 1B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I can't see them investing upwards of $100 million in him when they have so many inexpensive, cheap and young or at least club-controlled players.
the configuration is more likely Turner at 3B and Muncy at 1B
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