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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/23/19

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Scherzers_Blue_Eye

12:56

Nats without Rendon aren't contenders, are they?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

Well, if they don't put a third baseman out there, then a lot of balls are gonna get through.

Seriously, if they lose Rendon, their chances probably take a hit, but I'd wait to see how they replace him before presuming they're DOA. Likewise when it comes to Strasburg, who can opt out.

pumpsie

12:59

Has Fangraphs made a conscious decision to not address the multitude of recent suspensions? Personally, I like that we only get articles on players who are actually playing baseball, but the repercussions of a suspension can be similar to a long-term injury, and those are covered in-depth.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I don't think we're consciously avoiding any of them — I've written about Pineda and Germán in the past two weeks. Addressed Urias and Herrera to some degree in the latter, with Herrera coming up several times in the context of Phillies-related articles.

A lot of it comes down to the strengths of our stable of writers and their appetites to address a topic. DV , in particular, isn't an easy or a fun one to write about, but I took up the challenge this time. Generally, focusing on the performance-related angles wrt suspensions (how will Team X get by) is pretty secondary.

Adam

1:05

Which father-son duo involving current Blue Jays produces more career WAR, the Biggios or the Guerreros?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Guerrero, though I'm impressed by what Biggio has done so far

Clown Town

1:05

I saw it noted recently that the Red Sox traded away Babe Ruth a century ago, and now they're seemingly poised to trade off Betts. Does this mean that Betts is going to have a HOF career as a pitcher?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Good for a chuckle. I wouldn't put it past Mookie given how skilled he is at seemingly everything.

Grover

1:06

If Maddon leaves the Cubs does he retire? Is he a possibility for the Giants or Padres?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I'm not sure if he's a great fit for either. Addressed the Padres' situation above. The Giants seem to need a more substantial overhaul, and I'm not sure what his appetite is for that, though I guess having, like, 3 years of job security and playing in that ballpark isn't the worst medium-term outlook.

Guest

1:08

deGrom favorite for NL Cy?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Between Scherzer and deGrom, it's too close to call. Read Craig Edwards' in-depth look at the metrics https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-nl-cy-young-voter-guide/ and the companion piece for the AL https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-al-cy-young-voting-guide/

There's no obvious answer in either league; who you vote for should depend on what you're prioritizing as far as performance.

Mason Jarre

1:09

Do you think Gerritt Cole takes whatever he learned with him in Houston to wherever he goes next (assuming it's not Houston)?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

I mean, it's not like what he learned is team property that he has to hand in. Presumably he's got a good understanding of how he got his groove back and wherever he goes (if he doesn't stay in Houston) they'll help him craft a similar plan.

Bobby abreu

1:13

What do you think of my hall of fame candidacy? Am I going to get over 5% of the vote?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I think Abreu is a one-and-done, sadly. Spoke about him recently with @TimothyRRyder metsmerizedonline.com/2019/01/mmo-ex… and there's a bit more here twitter.com/JoshuaGruber1/…

@jay_jaffe Do you think Bobby abreu will get below 5% in the voting next year? His stats portray a borderline HOFer but seems like a guy who would fall below 5% like Edmonds or Lofton. Thoughts?

Adam

1:13

Odds a pitcher plays first base for at least one batter this postseason?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Kolarek maybe, if the Dodgers' other bullpen problems (Jansen primarily) don't burn down the whole deal beforehand.

branik best

1:14

Have you discussed Danny Duffy's interview on mental health? Late to the chat. Matheny would be another step in the wrong direction.

Jay Jaffe

1:16

I haven't, and haven't read much in the way of details about what he said, though I admire him for coming forward and hope it encourages other people — players and non-players alike — to get help in addressing their mental health needs.

Mike Matheny is one person I wouldn't hire to manage my sock drawer given his track record. I wouldn't hire him to manage an empty sock drawer, even.

Jeff

1:16

Francisco Lindor trade: this offseason, 2020 TDL, or 2020-2021 offseason?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

I think you have to start laying the groundwork to trade him this winter. Particularly given that he's coming off a strong season, the risk of a lesser return starts to increase considerably if, say, he starts slowly next year or gets hurt early again.

Tom

1:18

Do you think Johan Santana gets into the HOF with the Modern Day Committee?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Not anytime soon. It's very rare even for a <5% guy to make it onto a committee ballot; he's got to overcome that inertia first.

Grover

1:20

Despite all the money, the Dodgers have yet to really be major players in free agency under this new regime, in part because of outstanding player development, they don't really have to. Do you think this is a case of waiting for the right guys (Rendon? Cole?), or is it just a front office philosophy to not give out long term contracts to guys in their late 20s/early30s?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

I think it's a combination of those things. I expect if and when they venture in that direction it will be for a free agent still in his 20s, maybe Betts or Lindor.

Ralph Rowdie

1:21

Who do you expect to be baseball’s second best player next year?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Right now it's either Yelich or Betts and I don't have a good reason to think it won't be one or the other, though maybe Bellinger can crash the party, too.

Adam

1:23

Which do you personally enjoy more, a Day 163, or a World Series game 7? Does it change depending on how many games there are on Day 163?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Game 7. I love Game 163(s) but nothing compares to having a championship on the line.

stever20

1:23

Won't Scherzer's only 172-173 innings be a bridge too far for a lot voters(assuming he only makes 1 more start)? Especially considering what the voters traditionally look at- wins equal, ERA de Grom is better, more strikeouts- how is it not going to be de Grom in a blowout quite frankly?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I looked at that myself a few weeks ago. The fact is that both of those guys have things working against them. Plus, Ryu has rebounded, and if you're going by wins and ERA, he beats them both right now. Like I said, I think it's too close to call. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scherzer-trying-to-re-maximize-momentum/

1:27

OK folks, there are still plenty of good q's in the queue but I've got a whole mess of things to deal with so I'm going to pull up short instead of crashing into the wall. thanks for stopping by, and look for a Team Entropy update tomorrow and a piece on Felix Hernandez on Friday.

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