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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/24/24
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Mark S
2:49
After a Cy Young season, what does Chris Sale have to do over the remainder of his career to feel relatively safe about a HOF spot? He's up to 54 bWAR and 48 JAWS, still short of the traditional benchmarks but much better than where he was heading into his age 35 season.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Mostly he just needs bulk. He's still short of 2,000 innings and while I don't expect him to get to 3,000, he probably needs a few more healthy seasons (say, 150 innings) to make his case more robust.
NL-A’s fan
2:51
Jay, do you think it bad for baseball that the White Sox are such a joke this year or is it positive that them likely braking the record draws more attention to baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
it's bad for baseball.
2:52
Particularly having a large-market team that should be on strong financial footing doing a poverty act and basically banging rocks together instead of using modern analytics methods is a damn embarrassment.
Brewer fan
2:52
On the Brewers, it's really 5 everyday hitters with a wRC+ over 100 including Mitchell....They've held pretty steady among the top run producing lineups all season even without Yelich due to getting on base and baserunning.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
I didn't count Mitchell in that group because he has only 209 PA and his Statcast numbers don't suggest what he's doing is particularly sustainable (.393 xSLG, for one). But we'll see if I'm wrong
Mike
2:55
Will Baldelli keep his job (heck, the FO too?) if the Twins don't make the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
It's a good question. I think they'll probably survive — I hope so for the sake of old friend Kevin Goldstein — but this is looking like a really gruesome collapse lately.
Guest
2:56
Do you think we're going to see a repeat of the 2023 Dodgers this year?  A great team undone in the post-season by a lack of quality starting pitching?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I think it's entirely possible they go that route. I mean, a year ago I couldn't have told you who Landon Knack was and now he's quite possibly their Game 3 starter.
Idiotic Failson
2:58
I'm assuming Gleyber leaves and Jazz moves to 2nd. What do the Yankees do at 3rd next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
they take Gil McDougald out of cryostorage.
3:00
I suspect they don't commit either way to Chisholm until at least after the winter meetings because they probably need to make a trade to fill one position or the other
Michael Scarn
3:00
The Braves had a chance to set their rotation to allow Sale to pitch tonight and Sunday.  They decided to pitch him only once, Wednesday.  Could it be that the Braves would rather miss the postseason than to use Sale in g162 which means he would be unavailable for the 1st round?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I noted this in yesterday's and today's pieces. Sale has already thrown more innings than in any season since 2017, and his fastball velo is down enough that they felt they couldn't push him for two starts on regular rest. I don't think for a moment it's a matter of "rather miss the postseason" so much as it is believing they have a better shot at going somewhere by giving him a bit of extra rest and hoping they have enough arms (and bats) to make up ground.
Tacoby Bellsbury
3:03
What has been the most enjoyably surprising thing for you this regular season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
three things that are very centered around my own viewing habits:

1) Ohtani's newfound zeal for stealing bases, which has made for an historic season

2) Judge's otherworldly performance since snapping out of his season-opening slump, not to mention his good health (knocks wood)

3) Lindor's vault into the MVP race while helping the Mets turned what looked like it might be a writeoff season into one that's been a lot of fun to watch.
wheelhouse
3:05
what are the odds mike elias is the orioles GM in 2027? brutal string of transactions this year aside from the burnes trade
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
Probably still pretty good. You can quibble with the deals he did/didn't do this year but he's turned the franchise around and has a whole boatload of talent and a new, committed owner. Regardless of what happens over the next six weeks, we haven't heard the last of this team
3:07
OK folks, I said this would be a short one, and I'm going to cut if off here. Thanks so much for stopping by to help bid farewell to my 2pm timeslot. Watch for me at 12pm on Tuesdays, starting in two weeks.
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